2022 National Hunt Novices Chase

[thorne365]

I wouldn't lump on any odds-on shot, but 6% edge is still higher than interest rates if anyone could guarantee they had that edge all the time... it's also higher than the edge casinos have I think.

That said, anyone who looks at my diary will know that I definitely aim higher than a 6% ROI!

aren't you giving yourself a 6% expected loss by taking the 10/11?

I vote for martingaling his rides!!

[Odin]

aren't you giving yourself a 6% expected loss by taking the 10/11?

I vote for martingaling his rides!!

No it's a 6% gain.

The bookies are essentially saying there's a 52% chance of something happening, when there's actually a 46% chance so they are overestimating how likely it is to happen. So over the long run you'd make a 6% profit if you had this edge every time. If you bet at a lower number than the actual chance you'd be underestimating it and therefore you'd likely make a loss

I'd argue it's all academic anyway as we never truly see the millions of different parallel universes where it could happen so we bet based on feel rather than pure statistical probabilities

[Istabraq]

No it's a 6% gain.

The bookies are essentially saying there's a 52% chance of something happening, when there's actually a 46% chance so they are overestimating how likely it is to happen.

6% advantage.
If he rides no winners you’ve done it in regardless of value.

I’ve said for years bookies should offer reverse odds so you can something not happening, might also take some of the business away from the exchanges too…

[Stormez]

6% advantage.
If he rides no winners you’ve done it in regardless of value.

I’ve said for years bookies should offer reverse odds so you can something not happening, might also take some of the business away from the exchanges too…

You can back horses not to win or place with them, but the prices are ridiculously short.

[thorne365]

No it's a 6% gain.

The bookies are essentially saying there's a 52% chance of something happening, when there's actually a 46% chance so they are overestimating how likely it is to happen. So over the long run you'd make a 6% profit if you had this edge every time. If you bet at a lower number than the actual chance you'd be underestimating it and therefore you'd likely make a loss

but 46% chance is 1.17/1 [about 6/5] and you're taking 0.91/1 [10/11] so youre getting paid at a lower rate than 'actual'

I'd argue it's all academic anyway as we never truly see the millions of different parallel universes where it could happen so we bet based on feel rather than pure statistical probabilities

Building these sort of sims is actually a great bit of fun - can be applied to anything [last one i did was to estimate how many players I needed to sign up for an 11 aside team given attendance records etc] and give you some nice insights.

Obvious one for us here is to plug in your own bets and simulate exp pnl! [Years ago I used to do this for one of the main bookies during chelt week]

[Odin]

but 46% chance is 1.17/1 [about 6/5] and you're taking 0.91/1 [10/11] so youre getting paid at a lower rate than 'actual'



Building these sort of sims is actually a great bit of fun - can be applied to anything [last one i did was to estimate how many players I needed to sign up for an 11 aside team given attendance records etc] and give you some nice insights.

Obvious one for us here is to plug in your own bets and simulate exp pnl! [Years ago I used to do this for one of the main bookies during chelt week]

I stand corrected by your better maths!

Yeah definitely sounds like my kind of fun those simulations, every chance you'll have me sliding into your dms soon to discuss but not sure everyone else on here will be as enthusiastic!

[SeanRock]

I wonder if Willie will give his new amateur jock Mr E. Ohgren a leg up in the race. I’m hoping he sends a back up to Stattler & hoping Ontheropes has being sparking a little more at Clonsutton than he has at the racetrack recently!

I know he has a ride in the Hunters Chase & has been impressing in his rodeoing out at home so could be plausible, Willie hasn’t really sent two darts at the race since Katie Walsh retired so maybe it’s wishful thinking but he has been solid enough on the exchange.

[Buckingham]

Jungle Boogie left in the entries again even though he's not qualified...

[Madmoose]

Braeside is 20/1 nrnb with 365 yet 16/1 in their antepost market, all other firms he seems to be around 12/1 or less.

[Star De Mohaison]

Braeside is 20/1 nrnb with 365 yet 16/1 in their antepost market, all other firms he seems to be around 12/1 or less.

Many thanks, switched from BFSS to 365.

[charlie]

OTR and Braeside blue across the board after 5 day decs.

[Lobos]

OTR and Braeside blue across the board after 5 day decs.

Who will ride OTR do we think?

[Benjy23]

OTR and Braeside blue across the board after 5 day decs.

The two I mentioned for this race in the Tuesday yankee. Anyone ever done an underpriced horses Yankee

[SeanRock]

Who will ride OTR do we think?

Possibly Willies new Swedish amateur Elliot Ohgren.

[PresentingPercy]

At a preview with Elliot, he's just announced to the room that Jamie Codd will ride Run Wild Fred