2022 National Hunt Novices Chase

[Zachx02]

Codd on Braeside then

[KickOnMyCockers]

Great spot. In case anyone remains interested (or isn't interested)... Rob James winners at Cheltenham 1+ 10/11, 2+ 9/2, 3+ 33/1 on sky requestabet

For info, I have 2+ and was banking on Fred, frontal and sire being 3 of his rides

2+ has taken one hell of a clipping in the last 7 days then. Was 25s before

[Saxon Warrior]

2+ has taken one hell of a clipping in the last 7 days then. Was 25s before

Given he won’t have many rides, and we will know exactly what he’s riding on Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3 by 20.30am on Tuesday morning before the Fez starts, it’s probably better just to back his horses in doubles, trebles, etc, they may pay much, much better than 9/2 for two - and 33/1 for three.

[KickOnMyCockers]

Yep 9/2 is a terrible price

[Ebbs]

Given he won’t have many rides, and we will know exactly what he’s riding on Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3 by 20.30am on Tuesday morning before the Fez starts, it’s probably better just to back his horses in doubles, trebles, etc, they may pay much, much better than 9/2 for two - and 33/1 for three.

Yeah definitely backing RWF, SDB and FA in each way doubles and treble

[Craigy14]

9/2 isn’t even terrible, it’s actually just completely wrong

He’s on a 11/4 shot, a 5/1 shot and a 7/1 for definite. Absolute embarrassment that’s he’s 9/2 for 2.

Edit - appreciate he may have a ride or 2 more than those but god that is vile.

[Odin]

Yeah agree with all comments. I was fortunate enough to get the 25s but wanted to let others make their own mind on those odds given James now confirmed to be riding Fred.

[Lobos]

Don't be greedy. Just back him for 1+winner at 10/11

[Kevloaf]

Don't be greedy. Just back him for 1+winner at 10/11

You would just back him individually though and it'd work out much better.

It's a silly bet.

[Odin]

You would just back him individually though and it'd work out much better.

It's a silly bet.

I'd argue it's more an 'easy' bet than a silly bet as it would be quite difficult to know the right dutching stakes for a strong return without knowing SPs and the like right? Obviously you could calculate at current prices when you place bet but you won't necessarily know all his rides then?

Either way, I probably should have put this in requestabets as I'm slightly sidetracking the NH chase thread... Sowwwwwieeeee

EDIT: At Craigy14 odds of 11/4, 5/1 and 7/1, if my Google maths is right, there's a 46.5% chance of one winner and a 0.5% chance of all three happening. Bugger knows if that's right so I'm gonna tap out now before I tempt myself into going for the 10/11 when I don't need to!

[KickOnMyCockers]

I'd argue it's more an 'easy' bet than a silly bet as it would be quite difficult to know the right dutching stakes for a strong return without knowing SPs and the like right? Obviously you could calculate at current prices when you place bet but you won't necessarily know all his rides then?

Either way, I probably should have put this in requestabets as I'm slightly sidetracking the NH chase thread... Sowwwwwieeeee

EDIT: At Craigy14 odds of 11/4, 5/1 and 7/1, if my Google maths is right, there's a 46.5% chance of one winner and a 0.5% chance of all three happening. Bugger knows if that's right so I'm gonna tap out now before I tempt myself into going for the 10/11 when I don't need to!

So you are tempted to weigh in at 10/11 at odds against based on those three rides or based on the fact he is likely to pick up the odd spare over the meet?

[Odin]

So you are tempted to weigh in at 10/11 at odds against based on those three rides or based on the fact he is likely to pick up the odd spare over the meet?

If maths is right, I make 10/11 a 52% chance of 1+ winners, against my calculated 46% chance. Add in the fact that frontal is currently shorter (I think), I'd be tempted based on those 3 runners. And then as you say, there's a chance he could pick up another ride. Unfortunately I don't know how to do the 2+ winners, but 3 winners came out at 0.05% against 2.9% implied by 33/1 so that's definitely a poor bet.

Edit: this is the site I used if anyone wants to check my workings. https://www.omnicalculator.com/stati...y-three-events
I calculated decimal odds as 1/1+fractional odds e.g. for 7/1, 1/1+7 = 1/8 = 0.125.

[Kevloaf]

The edge is just nowhere near worth the effort that's going into this

At the current prices, what have we established? That Rob James is a very small 'value' play (6%) rather than dutching his current assumed rides.... and the bet is 10/11.

Nobody is going to be excited or lumping on an odds on shot like that when it's so marginal are they?



I'd just have a little trixie on his rides and aim higher rather than get too excited about an odds on shot.

[Odin]

I wouldn't lump on any odds-on shot, but 6% edge is still higher than interest rates if anyone could guarantee they had that edge all the time... it's also higher than the edge casinos have I think.

That said, anyone who looks at my diary will know that I definitely aim higher than a 6% ROI!

[Dandrew99]

If maths is right, I make 10/11 a 52% chance of 1+ winners, against my calculated 46% chance. Add in the fact that frontal is currently shorter (I think), I'd be tempted based on those 3 runners. And then as you say, there's a chance he could pick up another ride. Unfortunately I don't know how to do the 2+ winners, but 3 winners came out at 0.05% against 2.9% implied by 33/1 so that's definitely a poor bet.

Edit: this is the site I used if anyone wants to check my workings. https://www.omnicalculator.com/stati...y-three-events
I calculated decimal odds as 1/1+fractional odds e.g. for 7/1, 1/1+7 = 1/8 = 0.125.

Speaking statistically... just on those 3 rides

0 Winners: 53%
1+ Winners: 46%
2+ Winners: 8.75%
3+ Winners: 0.54%