2022 National Hunt Novices Chase

[Many Clouds]

My first time doing it as well. Was in a great position until the ferny/SWIW injuries, then hammered again by backing JWM (almost exclusively) for the race he isn't going for, potentially hit again by Fred not coming here or DD not going Bally. I'm rationalising it as the losses are expected, that's why we get bigger prices earlier in the season. As long as we both don't lose money (or too much money, remember betting is a hobby for us where the money could easily be lost to a few pints or a day at the football, theatre, shopping etc), I see it as part of the learning experience. Rome wasn't built in a day, so I'm not sure our ability to learn how to bet antepost to maximize profits can be either

Yeh SWIW and JWM Bartlett are a couple of my biggys too to fall by the wayside. Them two, Dysart, GDC and RWF have been in so many multiples, I have accepted that Dysart goes supreme now so pretty much over it, but RWF and GDC not running/going elsewhere would just feel like a huge kick in the teeth. I'm not even arsed about the money, would never bet what I can't afford, I'm not sure what bothers me most, maybe just the fact that so many bets will be dead by the time it comes round and especially the main ones I would need for any multiples to have a good chance of coming in. So maybe it's just having beaten the odds by decent amount and then never getting a run for the money on them.

But anyway, I'll defo end up doing it next year think I was just having a moment, seems like one thing after another the past couple of months or so. Like you say will have to learn from it and not shove all my eggs in just a few baskets for next year. It's fucking annoying but I'll grow up and get over it haha

[Odin]

Yeh SWIW and JWM Bartlett are a couple of my biggys too to fall by the wayside. Them two, Dysart, GDC and RWF have been in so many multiples, I have accepted that Dysart goes supreme now so pretty much over it, but RWF and GDC not running/going elsewhere would just feel like a huge kick in the teeth. I'm not even arsed about the money, would never bet what I can't afford, I'm not sure what bothers me most, maybe just the fact that so many bets will be dead by the time it comes round and especially the main ones I would need for any multiples to have a good chance of coming in. So maybe it's just having beaten the odds by decent amount and then never getting a run for the money on them.

But anyway, I'll defo end up doing it next year think I was just having a moment, seems like one thing after another the past couple of months or so. Like you say will have to learn from it and not shove all my eggs in just a few baskets for next year. It's fucking annoying but I'll grow up and get over it haha

I still think DD will go Bally and GDC will go RSA fwiw.

Moments happen though, I've had a few of them over the last couple of months as well. No shame in caring about something you've invested time, effort and money in as long as you can snap yourself out of them fairly quickly like you seem to have done. We're all in this together so only right that we make use of each other and get some support when we have those moments of vulnerability

[TigerRolllllll]

We prob know what's going to happen, but as its not yet confirmed the markets have not full reacted....tho few are starting to shift

Still good time to fill your boots with other options NRNB

Think some of def runners are still longer than they will be on the day.....Vanillier, Braeside, ....and even Fury Road or Farouk prob won't go off at 10s if Gigg only have one runner

[SeanRock]

Braeside Will almost certainly run in all 3 races? Don’t see why it can’t be done for RWF at all…

You’re massively underestimating how difficult it is to try get a horse to perform at a good level over such an elongated period of time, it’s not ideal for you g staying chasers, it could bottom them out in a big way!

[SeanRock]

Aso I wonder if there’s a bit of a power struggle going on between owner & trainer here & a conflict of interests, sounds very plausible to me!

[riccirich]

This is only my second year doing ante post but one easy trick that I done last year which is a useful safety net is something I call the "worst case scenario multiple. Its a very simple way to cover what would be a terrible day for you and rid you of some stress and it can be done for very small stakes.

simply put, basically just put any short price horses in a multiple who you have either missed the price on, never were a backable price, or who you dont fancy.
For example a terrible first day for me would be constitution hill, edwardstone, run wild fred and royal kahala all winning, so i'll just do an acca and four trebles including those horses. I wouldn't be too upset if say just two of them won so I wouldn't bother doing the doubles as it would take more money to get a decent return on them.

I'm sure lots on here do something like this already as a cover but just in case it hasn't occured to anyone I thought i'd highlight it.

[TigerRolllllll]

Re what has changed....someone please correct me, but didn't the GN weights come out recently?

Gigg were upset about Tiger, but lots of tipsters mentioned RWF as a live one

So, makes sense to focus on GN and use Sun as a prep?

We don't know yet...and may well depend how Sun goes.....but maybe that simple ??

[ToniC]

You’re massively underestimating how difficult it is to try get a horse to perform at a good level over such an elongated period of time, it’s not ideal for you g staying chasers, it could bottom them out in a big way!

That’s not what I’m saying l… though just 10 years ago it would be par for the course - the animals haven’t evolved in such a significant way in that time, though training methods may have - but what I’m saying is, though it’s taken as a given that Braeside will run in the 4 miler at the festival and the aintree national, as well as presumably now sunday, people think that it absolutely could not be possible for another horse to do the same?

[TigerRolllllll]

That’s not what I’m saying l… though just 10 years ago it would be par for the course - the animals haven’t evolved in such a significant way in that time, though training methods may have - but what I’m saying is, though it’s taken as a given that Braeside will run in the 4 miler at the festival and the aintree national, as well as presumably now sunday, people think that it absolutely could not be possible for another horse to do the same?

Its a very fair point....and all the risks on our ante-post on RWF apply equally to Braeside

Only hope for B is that Codd booked and he is much more a GN outsider, so maybe won't go there

Cant see either doing all 3

[SeanRock]

That’s not what I’m saying l… though just 10 years ago it would be par for the course - the animals haven’t evolved in such a significant way in that time, though training methods may have - but what I’m saying is, though it’s taken as a given that Braeside will run in the 4 miler at the festival and the aintree national, as well as presumably now sunday, people think that it absolutely could not be possible for another horse to do the same?

I get where you’re coming from but if Gordon want to feasibly win two of the three it’s probably not the right program to run with, I understand every horse is different & some handle their racing better than others but to get a horse conditioned to win a NHC & A Grand National in the same season is some training feat.

For comparison Elliott would have probably had Tiger Roll undercooked by about 10/20% when he was winning his cross country’s & using the race as a stepping stone to the GN

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

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[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

^^^^This all day long for me. As long as we all bet only what we can afford, us first timers will learn better for next time.

Lessons learned already for me;
- making more use of TWAR post-Cheltenham 2022 - particularly with Willie and Gordon potentials

A lesson learned for me a couple of festivals ago is that the Any race markets are a graveyard for antepost bets, not only are the prices awful but without cash out you will end up with plenty of non-runners. Much better in my opinion splitting your total stake and backing a horse for the most likely 2 races with a cash out firm.

There is the odd any race gem (typically for one going down a handicap route) but they are few and between in my opinion

[Istabraq]

A lesson learned for me a couple of festivals ago is that the Any race markets are a graveyard for antepost bets, not only are the prices awful but without cash out you will end up with plenty of non-runners. Much better in my opinion splitting your total stake and backing a horse for the most likely 2 races with a cash out firm.

There is the odd any race gem (typically for one going down a handicap route) but they are few and between in my opinion

Interesting angle that, and of course not being able to put in multiples…

[Lobos]

A lesson learned for me a couple of festivals ago is that the Any race markets are a graveyard for antepost bets, not only are the prices awful but without cash out you will end up with plenty of non-runners. Much better in my opinion splitting your total stake and backing a horse for the most likely 2 races with a cash out firm.

There is the odd any race gem (typically for one going down a handicap route) but they are few and between in my opinion

Exactly my approach this year and it's worked a treat for most of them. Have to do your homework obviously to pick the correct two races but if you don't you can normally take action.
There are always a few worth doing TWAR each season but you need to be very selective.

[SeanRock]

Interesting angle that, and of course not being able to put in multiples…

Ye I second that Insta, RC is bang on, pick a race you think a certain horse has the credentials for & back accordingly, you won’t always be right & neither will the trainer but more often than not it will end up with a better position & hopefully result

It’s a skill but imo there’s little point in covering races you don’t think your selection can win!