2022 National Hunt Novices Chase

[Kevloaf]

To be fair as a backer I’m not entirely convinced.
I backed the horse immediately after last years festival and have been waiting for him to prove that my initial confidence wasn’t misguided, but he’s had plenty of runs and only one has screamed NH Chase winner to me and I’m fearful there are other less exposed horses who could improve past him.
I think we’ve all been trying to convince ourselves that he’s the next Galvin, I think there’s a big difference between the two…

For anyone wanting to tie their money up, I still think the horse that beat him quite easily 8L, Fury Road 7/1 NRNB is the bet.

He'd go off a worthy short priced fav, or won't go at all.

[Nathaniel99999]

Is it the price putting you off?

I'm struggling to see why you "cannot see the horse winning this".

If you're making a price arguement, fair enough.

If you're saying he can't win.... I imagine people will start posting plenty of reasons why you should be able to see it.... to those people, play nicely!

Nahh its not the price at all, I saw him priced up at 6/1 a long time back and I was tempted to back him myself but the horse did not convince me even when he was this price, then when he went 9/2 and shortening and seeing his last win it just did not scream out a National hunt winning horse. I could be wrong and judging it completely off but to me there is 1 or 2 horses that would win against RWF. What makes it worse is the price because I can't see why its even so low as it is but thats not the main reason why I don't think the horse will win though, as I've said if it does then I will accept it and put my hands up .

[Istabraq]

For anyone wanting to tie their money up, I still think the horse that beat him quite easily 8L, Fury Road 7/1 NRNB is the bet.

He'd go off a worthy short priced fav, or won't go at all.

Is it not likely a ‘won’t go at all’ ?

[Kevloaf]

Is it not likely a ‘won’t go at all’ ?

Yeah, NRNB though for those who like to tie their money up and know it's a good value non runner

[That Horse]

Is it not likely a ‘won’t go at all’ ?

Surely this ^^^^^^


I've seen it posted elsewhere on FJ that the O'Leary's don't like theirs running in the NHC so find it hard to understand why they'd send two to this race if that's the case?

[Kevloaf]

Well exactly, he'd potentially only run if RWF didn't? I'm not saying two will run. (Although Giggi had two when Tiger Roll won)
He'd be a shorter price than RWF too.... as he's a better horse.
What's so hard to understand
NRNB, 7/1 he either goes off short priced fav, or doesn't run.

Shall I say NRNB again and "tie your money up".

[That Horse]

Gavin namechecked NHC again for Vanillier in RP today, says haven't seen the best of him yet. Still think there might be an improved performance in him and there'd need to be, given previous form against RWF. Gavin's horses have done it before though

[Kevloaf]

Nahh its not the price at all, I saw him priced up at 6/1 a long time back and I was tempted to back him myself but the horse did not convince me even when he was this price, then when he went 9/2 and shortening and seeing his last win it just did not scream out a National hunt winning horse. I could be wrong and judging it completely off but to me there is 1 or 2 horses that would win against RWF. What makes it worse is the price because I can't see why its even so low as it is but thats not the main reason why I don't think the horse will win though, as I've said if it does then I will accept it and put my hands up .

Ok fair enough. He was tipped up on the forum at 20/1, then after he won the Troytown was still 10/1 after that.... I think given his experience over fences, that impressive staying performance and a decent Grade 1 placed effort... he's got better credentials that most of this potential line up.

[ToniC]

To be fair as a backer I’m not entirely convinced.
I backed the horse immediately after last years festival and have been waiting for him to prove that my initial confidence wasn’t misguided, but he’s had plenty of runs and only one has screamed NH Chase winner to me and I’m fearful there are other less exposed horses who could improve past him.
I think we’ve all been trying to convince ourselves that he’s the next Galvin, I think there’s a big difference between the two…

I think with the return of amateur riders it won’t take one as good as galvin to be winning this, probably by a bit too. Before him, the honour roll has tended to be above average horses that got the trip really well, Ravenhill, le breuil, rathvinden and the likes. Obviously with a few really good ones thrown in too, but the ones like tiger and Galvin would probably be more the exception IMO.

An OR of 158 puts him above just about what every winner in recent history would have been rated or even achieved as a peak RPR prior to the race and if he could simply run to his rating that would be good enough to win nearly every renewal in recent history too, without considering Gordon is likely to be able to (hopefully) extract further improvement from him for the festival. Add to that he ticks every major trend for the race barring one. And he’s likely to have the best jockey.

You can be convinced now

[That Horse]

Well exactly, he'd potentially only run if RWF didn't? I'm not saying two will run. (Although Giggi had two when Tiger Roll won)
He'd be a shorter price than RWF too.... as he's a better horse.
What's so hard to understand
NRNB, 7/1 he either goes off short priced fav, or doesn't run.

Shall I say NRNB again and "tie your money up".

Fury Road? National Hunt Chase? NRNB? With his reputation?

Ah Paul Whitehouse, good times. I'd forgotten about him until he was in The Death of Stalin, brilliant film

[Istabraq]

An OR of 158 puts him above just about what every winner in recent history would have been rated or even achieved as a peak RPR:

But, as a second season chaser he has had plenty more opportunities to get that high mark/RPR.
10 chase starts.
I’m playing devils advocate of course, as I am a backer, but I wouldn’t be shocked if one or more of Stattler, On the Ropes or Capodanno finished ahead of him, should they all go…

[Nathaniel99999]

I have backed RWF before when coming 2nd in the Irish national because back then he was so well handicapped which I thought he would win it and came 2nd in that race. I have kept watch of the horse since but the horse to me I just have a niggle thinking for some reason is going to be beat by a unexposed horse which I think in my opinion will be either Jungle boogie (if entered) or Capdanno or even Stattler. As I've said I've only backed Jungle Boogie for this at the moment but will back Capadanno if Jungle does not run.

[jrjr]

Those other horses won't know what's hit them in this race. Trying to deal with the seasoned RWF, jumping like a stag, over 3m 5f.

He's part of a super Tuesday of bets. RWF and TMSG, throw in Galahad Quest and Constitution Hill. Load the wheelbarrows for the rest of the week!

[ToniC]

But, as a second season chaser he has had plenty more opportunities to get that high mark/RPR.
10 chase starts.
I’m playing devils advocate of course, as I am a backer, but I wouldn’t be shocked if one or more of Stattler, On the Ropes or Capodanno finished ahead of him, should they all go…

Yes perfectly fair worries, to be honest. Im banking on their inexperience (in stattler and capo’s case) letting them down I suppose. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them surpass run wild fred in the future, but I think this might be a bit too much too soon for them

[Lobos]

Stablemate Pats Fancy, who was a non-runner at Exeter on Wednesday, is also set to head to the festival with the National Hunt Chase his main target. A comprehensive winner over Imperial Alcazar last time, the seven-year-old is no bigger than 20-1.