If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
Announcement
Collapse
Fat Jockey Patrons
Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated. Become a Patron!
Why would you back Capodanno for this now? He's not qualified is he?
No but as Lbur says he’s been entered so will likely run over 3m soon enough.
If not can cash out for cash back (if shortens) or minimal loss.
As I said above can only see his price going one way imo, already has after the entry. WPM likely to have 2 runners and 2 of the best amateurs secured.
No harm in trying. If tbo doesn’t win it this year he can always come back and try again next year presuming he doesn’t win a chase this season.
Agree, but wouldn't fit a usual MO for Gordy to bring one back. Would typically be aimed at a decent handicap the season before and not win it. Not unreasonable to suggest the Paddy Power at Leopardstown that he missed was his first target, why not try him in something like the Irish National to confirm he stays and if he doesn't win that come back for NH Chase next year. As you say, no harm in going for NH this year though, particularly if Giggi go doo-lally with RWF
No but as Lbur says he’s been entered so will likely run over 3m soon enough.
If not can cash out for cash back (if shortens) or minimal loss.
As I said above can only see his price going one way imo, already has after the entry. WPM likely to have 2 runners and 2 of the best amateurs secured.
Probably worth pointing out that Willie has entered 7 in this.
So it's not that strong a tell.
I'm not sure why people thought he might not get entered.
The biggest issue with this horse running here is also the biggest positive, in that JP has no real contender at 3 miles or 3m 6f.
So it's a close call I think between the 2 races, and will depend on the make up of both races near the time.
I expect him to try and qualify though, but try is the word, as he could always fall, or not get placed. Which means the price now is shit, he's not even a 6-1 shot if he was qualified FFS.
I do think when Willie mentioned the horse having many suitors at the start of the season he was pre empting this, as you have all the JP jockeys wanting a go, especially Walsh & O'Connor.
Then you'd have those in the Mullins yard who'd like to ride. Amateurs v Pro's.
The oddest thing yesterday for me was that Dickie Diver was only entered for the RSA, now I know he's shit but he would have been worth a pop in the 3m 6f if he's going to run anywhere.
He's had one run again this year over hurdles, and obviously has issues or a trainer with issues.
They must have thought he's not going to get a run in beforehand, which he needs at least 1 over fences.
I think it just opens up options for him.
He doesn’t have to win to qualify and at 143 he’d fit neatly into the Kim Muir, will be interesting to see if he’s a real trier as could easily be getting qualified and minding a mark….
He’s no reason to, but it wouldn’t shock me if the handicapper raised him over 145.
He’s no reason to, but it wouldn’t shock me if the handicapper raised him over 145.
None of us know what is in Elliott's mind, case in point has been his placing of Galvin this season who now looks like a Gold Cup horse, who thought that six months ago.
My guess, and it is only a guess, is that the horse likes to be active and could become unruly when kept at home for too long, the horse has had 14 runs in 21 months so sees a course more than most, maybe Elliot thinks a run now will relax him.
He may be thinking run now, 3m run to get qualified in Feb and then all options available for Cheltenham.
What the handicapper does with him is anyones guess, the Irish 'capper managed to drop Sire de Berlais 2lb for his 'effort' at Warwick last week apparently in yet another update I struggle to comprehend.
I wouldn't be falling off my chair in shock if he were to run and be out for a leg stretch only....
Probably worth pointing out that Willie has entered 7 in this.
The biggest issue with this horse running here is also the biggest positive, in that JP has no real contender at 3 miles or 3m 6f.
So it's a close call I think between the 2 races, and will depend on the make up of both races near the time.
I expect him to try and qualify though, but try is the word, as he could always fall, or not get placed. Which means the price now is shit, he's not even a 6-1 shot if he was qualified FFS.
The oddest thing yesterday for me was that Dickie Diver was only entered for the RSA,
I think that Capodanno is already Willie's best horse entered in the race, so its just a matter of this or going as no2 for the RSA (if Galopin des Champs improves at the DRF and wins again)
Capodanno improved a stone over hurdles when stepping up to 3M and winning a Grade B Handicap Hurdle by 12L.
That performance was around 5lb better than anything Stattler did in Grade 1 hurdles races.
I am expecting him to improve over fences like he did over hurdles when going up to 3M or more.
He had never ran in a Grade 3, 2 or 1 Hurdle or Chase until he ran on Sunday, so there maybe a fair bit of upside to come when/if he runs in the Ten Up Chase.
Capo's first run in a Grade 3 Chase on Sunday led to a higher RPR than Ontheropes has ever ran, and 6lb higher than Stattler has ever run.
Of WPM's 7 NHC entries the only horses to qualify for it so far are Stratum and Ontheropes.
My thoughts are that if Run Wild Fred runs to form in this then Stratum and OTR don't beat him.
So if Willie wants a serious horse at the top of the market for this (and he usually does, with Patrick involved) then its likely to come from one or more of his others qualifying next time out with a 3M Chase first 4 placing
Capodanno
Stattler
En Beton
Jungle Junction
Five O'Clock
The first two have proved more robust and more widely campaigned in recent times than the rest, and they deserve to be the shortest priced horses Willie has in the current race betting.
What amazes me is WTF is Stattler doing at 2/3rds of the price that Capodanno is?
He doesnt have one bit of form that betters Capo's best two performances, yet.
It's a perceived 'likelihood of running' thing, I suppose.
A bit tenuous, until any more of them qualify.
Last edited by Saxon Warrior; 20 January 2022, 08:28 PM.
Agree Saxon. I think Capodanno may well go off fav even if RWF takes up his entry. IMO his 2nd to Bob was a top class run and one that tops anything that RWF or anything else in the race has produced thus far. Even at 8/1 he represents good value.
Yeah -
I was pointing out on here when he was entered for the Bob race the other day that it was probably good news for this race going forward when some were thinking of bailing.
Then pointing out his number of entries to counter the perception that it's a given that he's going to run here.
I think he will, so I covered him in a double earlier in the week.
I also think that when the dust settles they may give Patrick the more experienced horse OTR to ride.
I'd have RWF experience over Capodanno pricewise though, for sure, but he's likely the best horse going forward, which is why the RSA is in play.
I think Bob is exceptional and so his run the other day was very good.
Stattlers price is awful too.
Yeah -
I was pointing out on here when he was entered for the Bob race the other day that it was probably good news for this race going forward when some were thinking of bailing.
Then pointing out his number of entries to counter the perception that it's a given that he's going to run here.
I think he will, so I covered him in a double earlier in the week.
I also think that when the dust settles they may give Patrick the more experienced horse OTR to ride.
I'd have RWF experience over Capodanno pricewise though, for sure, but he's likely the best horse going forward, which is why the RSA is in play.
I think Bob is exceptional and so his run the other day was very good.
Stattlers price is awful too.
It's where I'm currenly thinking he'll end up. A good ride for Walsh and deserving of his place in that race. Definitely no back number.
If OTR takes his thyestes entry and runs credibly I think he will book his ticket here with Patrick up. Just seems to make sense more so that en beton or stattler. If not those two may come into mix if they get qualified but I’d be a lot cooler on them.
Similarly just can’t get enthusiastic about capodanno
Ruby says on RTC that he'd be surprised if Capodanno turned up here. They also crabbed Stattler coming here though and I think itd be a surprise all round if neither did!
We process personal data about users of our site, through the use of cookies and other technologies, to deliver our services, personalize advertising, and to analyze site activity. We may share certain information about our users with our advertising and analytics partners. For additional details, refer to our Privacy Policy.
By clicking "I AGREE" below, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our personal data processing and cookie practices as described therein. You also acknowledge that this forum may be hosted outside your country and you consent to the collection, storage, and processing of your data in the country where this forum is hosted.
Tweet
Comment