2022 National Hunt Novices Chase

[Lobos]

....... he could maybe be injured .......

WoUld surely be an increase in price if that were the case ??

[Quevega]

....... he could maybe be injured .......

Bless him.

[Lobos]

Bless him.

Thank you my Father.....

[charlie]

Remember both Capodanno and Statler are not yet qualified for this race. Squeaky bum time for us backers.

Yep, and Willie is more likely to send 1 than 3 IMO. Who will he send. Of Capodanno, Stattler, Ontheropes, En Beton and Bacardy's, hard to know who he'll send.

[Winging The Last]

Yep, and Willie is more likely to send 1 than 3 IMO. Who will he send. Of Capodanno, Stattler, Ontheropes, En Beton and Bacardy's, hard to know who he'll send.

Mullins has more often than not sent 1 horse to the race especially in recent years but he did send 3 in 2016 and 2 in 2017 and in 2018.

I think the main thing this year that it might be the first time that Willie has a horse with JP that is the type of horse to go here and I don't think that JP has any other horse that is good enough to send here for O'Connor to ride (plus we know JP loves this race).

So surely Capodanno will come here with O'Connor on board and then Willie will 100% want to give Patrick a ride in this race as well. Who that will be yet is still up in the air and could be between any of those above, but I do believe Patrick has a big say in swaying his dad's decision of who he sends here. And with Willie having so many Novice Chasers for the other races I do think Patrick will be able to twist his dad's arm for a good one to ride here like Stattler. The owner will have no issue with that at all I can guarantee that.

[charlie]

Mullins has more often than not sent 1 horse to the race especially in recent years but he did send 3 in 2016 and 2 in 2017 and in 2018.

I think the main thing this year that it might be the first time that Willie has a horse with JP that is the type of horse to go here and I don't think that JP has any other horse that is good enough to send here for O'Connor to ride (plus we know JP loves this race).

So surely Capodanno will come here with O'Connor on board and then Willie will 100% want to give Patrick a ride in this race as well. Who that will be yet is still up in the air and could be between any of those above, but I do believe Patrick has a big say in swaying his dad's decision of who he sends here. And with Willie having so many Novice Chasers for the other races I do think Patrick will be able to twist his dad's arm for a good one to ride here like Stattler. The owner will have no issue with that at all I can guarantee that.

Yeh Willie's number of runners in this is well known, but I think he'll duck this with Capodanno. Not being qualified doesn't have much to do with it IMO, plenty of time for that, I just don't think Willie is going to be in a rush to give a tough test to an inexperienced talented 6yo. Minella Rocco won it for JP at 6yo, but he entered the race with more chase experience and Willies runners tend to be older with more experience, the young and inexperienced do poorly and he'll know that.

[ComplyOrDie]

Yep, and Willie is more likely to send 1 than 3 IMO. Who will he send. Of Capodanno, Stattler, Ontheropes, En Beton and Bacardy's, hard to know who he'll send.

I've just cashed out Ontheropes. I don't think he'll be the one. He won a average handicap early on in the season, admittedly he done it cosily enough, but since been well beat when moving up in grade. Many were holding on to that Monkfish form line, from the previous season, but I think that can be forgotten about now. He's well held by Run Wild Fred as well.

Bacardys I'd struggle to have over the trip. Truthfully his overall better form is over the intermediate trip. He's been well beat over 3m absolutely plenty of times for me to offer the suggestion that he doesn't see it out. I know the Stayers of 2020 he finished 3rd, but that was probably one of the worst Stayers Hurdles in history, and the form of that race has barely worked out for anything. Again, on his most recent run he too is held by Run Wild Fred.

I have big doubts about Capodanno for this race, despite him somehow turning into a forum horse for it. Yes, he won a 3m handicap hurdle as he liked on his final start of the season, but this was at Punchestown, a fairly speedy track and ground was 'Yielding', what we would call Good/Soft over this side of the Irish Sea, so there wasn't much emphasis on stamina. His breeding shows next to no stamina in it, from a NH perspective anyway, on the flat side his sire has produced some good staying types, but this doesn't equate the same over a hurdle or fence. For me, as well, he showed a turn of foot on his chase debut to get back up on the line, this isn't what I would be expecting from a NH Horse. I appreciate JP may want him to run, but even if he did he wouldn't be for me.

Stattler looks an obvious one. I'm going to back Vanillier, because he holds Stattler and some others from that Bartlett, however Stattler looks a different proposition over a fence already. Stattler is also closely related to Monkfish, who some thought could have gone for the NH Chase, but he had too much class and went for the RSA, whereas Stattler may just lack that class, and the NH Chase may suit him perfectly. As per JP, Ronnie Bartlett does also like this race as well.

En Beton is very interesting, although the fav and his stablemate came down in the race he won, so no idea how it would have played out, but the horses in behind haven't done an awful lot over fences prior to this race anyhow. Would like to see him again before backing him.

The only other one, which I mentioned middle of last year was Jungle Boogie. With the exception of his inexperience, I feel he has a fair bit going for him. Same sire as Galvin, and stamina in the pedigree. His chase debut was very good, against some high level handicap horses, that at one point or another were touted as potential graded horse. He's won on 'Soft', 'Heavy' & 'Yielding' so absolutely no concerns on this front either. He may just have a bit too much class for a NH Chase, but I can't see him taking on his stablemate in the BANC.

[Lobos]

Of all the ones you mention COD, the only one currently qualified to run in the race you've cashed out !

[Winging The Last]

Some very good points made here Comply. I agree Ontheropes doesn't look like he has the form for this and I doubt he will turn up at the festival. Same with Bacardys.

I do think Capodanno looks like a stayer and to me it didn't look like speed won him the race the other day but he just stayed on best past some very tired horses after his mistake. The others looked very tired out there.

I do think Stattler would be the one to go here as it would be between the FNC and the NHC and I think Willie know's nothing is beating GDC so will be swayed to send him this race.

En Benton, again like you say we need to see more of him before backing him here, and at least entered in a race to qualify. He was according to the betting not meant to win the other day so he mustn't have been pulling up that many trees at home.

Re Vaniillier:

Stattler looks an obvious one. I'm going to back Vanillier, because he holds Stattler and some others from that Bartlett, however Stattler looks a different proposition over a fence already.

Would you say that Vanillier is significantly held on form by Run Wild Fred though? I would find it very hard for him to overturn RWF on the form between the two.

And re Jungle Boogie:

The only other one, which I mentioned middle of last year was Jungle Boogie. With the exception of his inexperience, I feel he has a fair bit going for him. Same sire as Galvin, and stamina in the pedigree. His chase debut was very good, against some high level handicap horses, that at one point or another were touted as potential graded horse. He's won on 'Soft', 'Heavy' & 'Yielding' so absolutely no concerns on this front either. He may just have a bit too much class for a NH Chase, but I can't see him taking on his stablemate in the BANC.

In terms on Jungle Boogie he is a very fragile horse that has hardly raced in his life. To race in the NHC he will have to run again over 3m to qualify before Cheltenham which would be 3 runs in 73 days. To date he his shortest gap between a race is 94 days which would be a significant worry that he won't run again before Cheltenham (which I think will be what happens, if he even goes there at all).

[ComplyOrDie]

Of all the ones you mention COD, the only one currently qualified to run in the race you've cashed out !

I can also re-back him at a bigger price currently if none of the others are able to qualify. However, it is extremely early days, considering Willie was late getting his runners out. I expect to see an entry or two in the coming weeks for some of them.

[ComplyOrDie]

I do think Capodanno looks like a stayer and to me it didn't look like speed won him the race the other day but he just stayed on best past some very tired horses after his mistake. The others looked very tired out there.

I'm not convinced one bit by his ability to stay the NH Chase trip. If he does it then absolutely fair play to him and those who believed it, but I'm happy to leave him for this race, and would rather back him for one of the other novice chases (which I've done). I think he could end up better than a NH Chase horse myself.

I do think Stattler would be the one to go here as it would be between the FNC and the NHC and I think Willie know's nothing is beating GDC so will be swayed to send him this race.

Re Vaniillier:



Would you say that Vanillier is significantly held on form by Run Wild Fred though? I would find it very hard for him to overturn RWF on the form between the two.

Stattler and Vanillier go hand in hand, as they at least have a festival form line. Reason why Vanillier may overturn form with RWF is because his connections have been known to turn it round with horses previously and including Vanillier when he turned up at the festival. He had to turn form lines round with Stattler (from their DRF run) in the Bartlett and did so with consummate ease. Q has made notes previously about the trainer 'magically' turning them into 'good things'.

And re Jungle Boogie:


In terms on Jungle Boogie he is a very fragile horse that has hardly raced in his life. To race in the NHC he will have to run again over 3m to qualify before Cheltenham which would be 3 runs in 73 days. To date he his shortest gap between a race is 94 days which would be a significant worry that he won't run again before Cheltenham (which I think will be what happens, if he even goes there at all).

Yeah, it would be my worry. I backed him for any race, I've no idea what plans are for him. I hadn't heard of any significant issues with him though, so maybe just little bits and pieces. Unfortunately it could be a number of things that we may never find out about. Will just keep an eye out for another entry now.

[Lobos]

I can also re-back him at a bigger price currently if none of the others are able to qualify. However, it is extremely early days, considering Willie was late getting his runners out. I expect to see an entry or two in the coming weeks for some of them.

There aren't many 3m easy novice chases to run in though are there ???

[ComplyOrDie]

There aren't many 3m easy novice chases to run in though are there ???

I'm unsure but I'd imagine there will be a couple. You've got the one at Naas that Carefully Selected qualified in at the end of January I believe.

And they don't have to be novice chases do they, just any 3m chase?

[Lobos]

I'm unsure but I'd imagine there will be a couple. You've got the one at Naas that Carefully Selected qualified in at the end of January I believe.

And they don't have to be novice chases do they, just any 3m chase?

Yep, any chase but going into open company will be difficult .

[Spectre]

There are two 3 mile novice chases that they could possibly qualify in. Will Willie want to run his against each other though?

I'd also say that he will certainly want a top amateur for any horses that run. That would indicate to me that the only way he would run two is if one of them was Capodanno. If he doesn't it will just be whatever Patrick rides. So essentially one from the rest. That one will be the one he believes is the stoutest stayer that is unlikely to want one of the two shorter races, and I think that's likely to be one of the Cheveley pair.