2022 National Hunt Novices Chase

[charlie]

If the RTV Leopardstown Christmas Festival 2021 preview is anything to go by then Stattler won't be coming here. They spent a lot of time talking about Stattler having more gears over fences and being similar to Black Hercules (touted for 4 miler then won JLT), and PM then name dropped the race for Ontheropes again. He clearly wants him in the race, which is good.

[DenmanSacre]

If the RTV Leopardstown Christmas Festival 2021 preview is anything to go by then Stattler won't be coming here. They spent a lot of time talking about Stattler having more gears over fences and being similar to Black Hercules (touted for 4 miler then won JLT), and PM then name dropped the race for Ontheropes again. He clearly wants him in the race, which is good.

Encouraging news

[JackieMoon33]

Great thanks JM

That was a bad year as I put up Aione for the NH chase who, despite some positive early vibes, never materialised either.

[Liammet]

Looking at those at the top of the betting i think this could be a race that will cut up badly
The 0’Leary’s are not keen on the race or the prize money
Stattler,Ahoy Senor and Vanillier look like they could be competitive in the Festival Novices Chase
The close proximity to the Grand National
It was a vintage year last year but it looked like some of the principles were just trying to avoid Monkfish

[Craigy14]

Looking at those at the top of the betting i think this could be a race that will cut up badly
The 0’Leary’s are not keen on the race or the prize money
Stattler,Ahoy Senor and Vanillier look like they could be competitive in the Festival Novices Chase
The close proximity to the Grand National
It was a vintage year last year but it looked like some of the principles were just trying to avoid Monkfish

I mentioned this morning in the BANC thread this morning after watching UTA about Run Wild Fred possibly going there over here.

Not even priced up for the BANC. He’s entered over the Grade 1 3m race at Xmas, he wins that the chance will be gone. Below what I’ve wrote over there.

Does anyone have any thoughts about Run Wild Fred here?

I know it shatters the NHC slips but after watching Upping the ante, I didn’t realise he wasn’t even priced up (probably didn’t look too hard for him to be honest).

I think for me I just don’t quite know if he’s good enough?! Although when you look at his form from Dec 20’ he’s been second 4 times and then won a big handicap. Is he improving now after all this time chasing? The flip side he was lined up for the Thyestes off a low weight, then a low weight for the Irish National too, did he not quite see put the trip? Winner was only 3lbs lower so if RWF was good enough he should have won imo. Better jump at the last wins him it? He absolutely bolted up the last day and is now rated right at the top of the tree.

If he’s declared in the Nevilles this must be under serious consideration, might be worth getting a price. Although it’ll probably be about 14’s I reckon.

[ToniC]

Be amazed if he was good enough for an rsa to be honest, I’m the sense that that race will simply not play to his strengths in the same way that this one will

[Craigy14]

Be amazed if he was good enough for an rsa to be honest, I’m the sense that that race will simply not play to his strengths in the same way that this one will

Aye, that’s where I’m at, at the minute.

But he's rated to go there, seems to have improved with experience, his latest run was way better than anything he’d done previously. He’d need to back that up though.

[Lobos]

Be amazed if he was good enough for an rsa to be honest, I’m the sense that that race will simply not play to his strengths in the same way that this one will

Think he is Gordon's highest rated Novice Chaser? and his other hopefuls have disappointed so it is very possible they could go RSA. That said, the English GN does appear to be the main target so he could just as easily skip Cheltenham all together.

[Mighty]

If you were Willie and you had GDC already, and were already up against BMG and Ahoy in the RSA, would you go up against those strong three, or would you go to the NHC where the opposition is somewhat thinner?

[Quevega]

Think he is Gordon's highest rated Novice Chaser? and his other hopefuls have disappointed so it is very possible they could go RSA. That said, the English GN does appear to be the main target so he could just as easily skip Cheltenham all together.

Highest rated by default though.
Gordon obviously wants him in the four miler.

It's the eyebrow twins that will have the big say, and they have other options, all entered in the Nevilles as well, such as Farouk D'alene (also Gordon), Beacon Edge, Cobblers way, Fury Road (Gordon), Lt Command, Fire Attack.

All have won beginners or ran well enough to have potential.
Fred NH chase backers would want one or 2 of these to look like graded animals.

[JamieSensible]

Braeside - Second season chaser, won the Cork national 3m4f. He literally fits the Gordon Elliot and Jamie Codd MO for the National Hunt Chase, available at 25/1 with will Hill and Bet365.

He's also entered in the Paddy Power on the 27th.

Currently rated 143, with the English tax he would be no doubt too high for the Kim Muir.

Thoughts Gentlemen?

[Quevega]

Braeside - Second season chaser, won the Cork national 3m4f. He literally fits the Gordon Elliot and Jamie Codd MO for the National Hunt Chase, available at 25/1 with will Hill and Bet365.

He's also entered in the Paddy Power on the 27th.

Currently rated 143, with the English tax he would be no doubt too high for the Kim Muir.

Thoughts Gentlemen?

Yep, was in consideration last year for handicaps and the like

[ToniC]

English national hopes have to be severely diminished now after his monster rise for winning the troytown.

I would *hope* fury road could be an RSA horse for him, probably liked to have seen him get a win by now but he’s ran credibly both times and I’d be thinking he’s just a big boat that needs three miles. Certainly looks rejuvenated vs last season where he was barely finishing off his races.

Also noteworthy that Gordon ran nothing in the RSA last year and ran 2 in the 4 miler, I don’t think he’s the trainer to try and shoehorn a horse into a race just so he’s got a runner, his MO is very much run them where they will win. Just a case of getting the owners onboard with the plan for this one; of which I wouldn’t be overly worried, they’ve ran a handful over the years and have had a winner as well as the SP fav once or twice. That said I’d definitely rather he was with the Morans or similar in this instance.

[JamieSensible]

Quevega I've decided to make him my main dart for the race, with the exception of The Bosses Oscar (who will win this weekend) I think he's got to be Gordon's best chance.

[Quevega]

Quevega I've decided to make him my main dart for the race, with the exception of The Bosses Oscar (who will win this weekend) I think he's got to be Gordon's best chance.

I nearly backed him after he won last time, but I don't think he was priced up and I have several already backed.
But he would definitely be in consideration I'm sure.
I'd like to think Gordon will get to run Fred though.
I'll be watching him if he races at christmas too.
Might consider Braeside off the back of that race.