2022 National Hunt Novices Chase

[charlie]

Very happy with RWF there. Went about his business like a pro and his jumping was very very good. I panicked momentarily post race as I couldn't find my NHC bets and thought I'd forgot to add him, then realised I'd backed him TWAR with Hills, phew!

Will be interesting to see what Gordon does with him now. Not to dampen enthusiasm on an otherwise great day for RWF, but I did an analysis a few pages back on the record of Irish favourites in this race related to cheltenham experience, and its abysmal. 1 place in the last 8 years. Stats are just stats, but for those with RWF in the book at nice prices, worth bearing in mind for cover purposes.

[Saxon Warrior]

The question is will oleary want him in the Irish national again with much better prize money than this

Not really, he has taken to targeting novices with lower ratings at the Irish National.

Plus that race doesn’t publish the weights until after Cheltenham, so whatever his horses do at Cheltenham will be assessed for the Irish National.

Thats why Coko Beach and Run Wild Fred ducked Cheltenham this year - when they looked odds-on to run at the Festival.

RWF is 8 in January, so in the age range to go for the much more valuable Grand National as is his end of season target, not the Irish National, according to the trainer.

[Eggs]

….RWF to win NHC & GN is 33-1 from 100-1 with Sky (125-1 in April).

[Odin]

No-one could blame you Odin, Elliott has only mentioned The Bosses Oscar for this race prior to today so you could be forgiven for thinking the race wasn't on RWF agenda, you won't have been the only one to have reversed positions...

100% - based on everything that was said, I still think it was the right decision for me, but I'm finding Gordon's planning a bit strange this season. They've ruined Galvins grand national mark and as fatherjohn said, they clearly knew what they had today so its surprising they went for this race over a grand national.

Fortunately for me I still have him in a doubles with kabongo, shewearsitwell and echoes so all is not lost with the 20/1 ticket. Good luck and well done to all those that kept the faith longer and with more points than I did!

[ToniC]

Had the worst day ever at work, not seen none of the racing but just now checking todays results and seeing this has made me so happy

[That Horse]

Fortunately for me I still have him in a doubles with kabongo

^^^^^same for me, that's my saving grace for RWF apart from a free bet and getting the NHC/Grand National RAB early on when it was still 100/1. Like you, I cashed out of the rest recently.

First year of doing Antepost, so learning that patience is a virtue and take what's said in stable tours with a pinch of salt. Nothing much was said about RWF and he goes and does what he did today, with Gordon confirming what the target will be. Fair dues to everyone who kept the faith.

No point getting too downhearted, there's a shit ton of other races and I can go back in on RWF at point of NRNB.

[archie]

Won by 7.5 lengths and I reckon he'll go up 7 or 8 to 152 or 153 in Ireland. For reference, Ontheropes is 152 in Ireland and 153 in the UK.

[Saxon Warrior]

Had the worst day ever at work, not seen none of the racing but just now checking todays results and seeing this has made me so happy

The power and pull of Horse Racing, to put a spring back in your step, when you’re feeling deflated.

[Odin]

^^^^^same for me, that's my saving grace for RWF apart from a free bet and getting the NHC/Grand National RAB early on when it was still 100/1. Like you, I cashed out of the rest recently.

First year of doing Antepost, so learning that patience is a virtue and take what's said in stable tours with a pinch of salt. Nothing much was said about RWF and he goes and does what he did today, with Gordon confirming what the target will be. Fair dues to everyone who kept the faith.

No point getting too downhearted, there's a shit ton of other races and I can go back in on RWF at point of NRNB.

100% mate. My first year starting this early antepost so plenty to learn from the experience and as long as we don't lose (lots of) money, it will only stand us in good stead for next year!

[TigerRolllllll]

100% mate. My first year starting this early antepost so plenty to learn from the experience and as long as we don't lose (lots of) money, it will only stand us in good stead for next year!

I’m sure you will still make good profit if follow forum

Done few years now and it’s been great

Couple thoughts might help going forward….

- delay cashouts long as poss (usually get plenty back later anyway snd don’t really need them to be up anyway tho they obviously help)
- if doing a book approach you still might want to get RWF back in at some point a bit (lots ways…..win race and Chelt, doubles etc)…..IF (still that) he goes here he won’t go off 6-1….be advice on ideas on this forum

[Odin]

I’m sure you will still make good profit if follow forum

Done few years now and it’s been great

Couple thoughts might help going forward….

- delay cashouts long as poss (usually get plenty back later anyway snd don’t really need them to be up anyway tho they obviously help)
- if doing a book approach you still might want to get RWF back in at some point a bit (lots ways…..win race and Chelt, doubles etc)…..IF (still that) he goes here he won’t go off 6-1….be advice on ideas on this forum

Thanks mate - I'd like to think I'll make profit as well but I'm not taking anything for granted. The first of your thoughts is the one I've fallen foul of this time and I'll learn from it

Anyway moving away from the Odin sob story, Fred was just brilliant today. But if he can put in a performance like that, it does beg the question.. how the hell did he get beat in the Irish grand national?!?

[TigerRolllllll]

Thanks mate - I'd like to think I'll make profit as well but I'm not taking anything for granted. The first of your thoughts is the one I've fallen foul of this time and I'll learn from it

Anyway moving away from the Odin sob story, Fred was just brilliant today. But if he can put in a performance like that, it does beg the question.. how the hell did he get beat in the Irish grand national?!?

You will..,,tho I do think bookies have tightened odds this year….so prob less easy

My advice is try lots bets at stakes can afford and learn what works for u….but back LOTS horses

Dont over rely on cashout, or even every bet at best odds ….just closes accounts quicker any way. For me, it just increases my interest in sport. Last season I didn’t take many best prices of use much cashout and won plenty ….most advice u need is on here….but diff people take diff approaches

[ToniC]

how the hell did he get beat in the Irish grand national?!?

Think Jack may have let the 100/1 shot have a little bit too much rope, expecting him to come back to him and he obviously never did. Think with a better jump 2 out he would have won too

[Odin]

Think Jack may have let the 100/1 shot have a little bit too much rope, expecting him to come back to him and he obviously never did. Think with a better jump 2 out he would have won too

Makes sense, but you can see why he let him go given what he had underneath him today!

[germanshepherd]

Guarantee most of you could have made more with a proper bet on him today once the money was down late. Well done for your ?10 a point bets though.