2022 National Hunt Novices Chase

[ComplyOrDie]

Cheers COD.

My point is that if Gordon was seeking to protect Run Wild Fred's mark why on earth would he run him in the Troytown.

RWF's mark is perfect for the Grand National right now - he'll definitely get in off a low weight - so I can't see much upside in running and not trying.

Potential for a Festival (via a handicap) / Grand National double?

If he runs below par he'll likely be dropped a couple or maybe more lbs without most batting an eyelid because of the competitiveness of the race, it's an ideal place for a 'average run' so to speak, it may be his big pot is at Cheltenham, followed by a tilt at the National. Unfortunately we won't know until the race on Sunday. By then, if he has run a big race in the Troytown as you suspect may be the case, the NH Chase price will likely have collapsed though.

We don't have to wait long to find out

[Saxon Warrior]

If RWF won on Sunday and got 8lb to 153, I really don’t think the UK capper is going to tax him out of the Grand National.

When horses get to 150+ they don’t usually get big hikes in the UK as both countries cappers have a decent load of races to assess him on.

Its some of the 130s and 140s with not much form to go on that seem to get the big hikes.

A UK rating of 153-155 wouldn’t put him out of Aintree contention if he’d won the Troytown.

Or NHC contention either.

Winning the Troytown would be tricky enough, if he did that with a high weight it would be some performance

[jonthehammer]

charlie Noticed crosshill has an entry over 2m 2f next Thursday at Thurles

[charlie]

charlie Noticed crosshill has an entry over 2m 2f next Thursday at Thurles

Cheers pal, yeh I saw that. And it starts.....Chase over 2m2f, step up to 2m7f over Xmas vs some proper tools, look a bit one paced / not quite good enough, enter the NHC. Its on.

[nortonscoin200]

Potential for a Festival (via a handicap) / Grand National double?

If he runs below par he'll likely be dropped a couple or maybe more lbs without most batting an eyelid because of the competitiveness of the race, it's an ideal place for a 'average run' so to speak, it may be his big pot is at Cheltenham, followed by a tilt at the National. Unfortunately we won't know until the race on Sunday. By then, if he has run a big race in the Troytown as you suspect may be the case, the NH Chase price will likely have collapsed though.

We don't have to wait long to find out

COD I reckon the pair of us could fill our own podcast on Run Wild Fred alone - but I suppose it would put most people to sleep.

However!!!!!

I think Gordon will actively not want Run Wild Fred's handicap mark to go any lower because it would mean he could be at risk of not making the cut in the Grand National.

Horse number 40 in the National in the last 5 years (latest first) has had a mark of: 145, 142, 142,143 and 145.

I don't know if all the horses on those marks made it - I'd guess probably not.

So as things stand Run Wild Fred's 145 is absolutely perfect for the Grand National. He's virtually guaranteed to get in and will carry within a pound or two of bottom weight.

Unless his mark goes up several pounds Davy almost certain won't be riding him at Aintree because his lowest riding weight in the last year has been 10st 11lbs. Jack has only managed a low of 10st 2lbs.

So there's nothing to plot with Run Wild Fred in terms of moving his mark down.

In terms of the Grand National the best case scenario would be a good run in the top four or five which leaves his mark unchanged.

But they'd be walking on thin ice if they try to manipulate him so, as I say, I think he'll be trying.

I don't think he'll win on Sunday but if he did I'd be far less optimistic about him being a cracking National bet off 153.

Agree with Saxon Warrior that 153 wouldn't rule him out of contention at Aintree but it would certainly dent his chances - and make him an even more likely winner of the National Hunt Chase.

I promise COD that whatever your riposte I'll stay mute on Run Wild Fred until after he's run on Sunday.

[ToniC]

Fair point CoD. I think it maybe cash out time if RWF looks like he is running with the handbrake on. It's a difficult one and needs some thought.

We already know the national is the target later in the season which will necessitate running with the handbrake on until February however once national weights are done he can win how he likes at the festival so wouldn’t let his performance Sunday swing me either way to be honest

[Istabraq]

Is there any reason why Elliott wouldn't protect both Run Wild Fred and The Bosses Oscar until February, get their National marks, then get one in the Kim Muir (assuming one gets 145 or under) and one in the NH Chase then decide if one or both head for Aintree or if either are bound for Fairyhouse.
Not hugely helpful when building a festival book but Elliott will only be looking at achieving the best outcome he can for his horses/owners...

[Kevloaf]

Does anyone believe The Bosses Oscar is actually being plotted towards this race?

He's got to be one of the most over bet horses in training hasn't he?

[Run4Home]

Does anyone believe The Bosses Oscar is actually being plotted towards this race?

He's got to be one of the most over bet horses in training hasn't he?

One I'm struggling with ; when Gordon sets out his stall to have a horse for this race early in the season you have to take it seriously and given the fact he'll likely have Codd onboard. Looks just to be pissing about for now running him over distances too short to sharpen him up in terms of jumping etc and few runs / experience under the belt.

Without knowing the above if you were watching the horse under any other trainer we probably wouldn't even have taken any notice of him and would be a massive price. He has been bang average , your basically putting all the hope in the fact that a step up in trip brings about massive improvement.

It clears to see the plan for him but hard not to think something cant beat him.

[Kevloaf]

One I'm struggling with ; when Gordon sets out his stall to have a horse for this race early in the season you have to take it seriously and given the fact he'll likely have Codd onboard. Looks just to be pissing about for now running him over distances too short to sharpen him up in terms of jumping etc and few runs / experience under the belt.

Without knowing the above if you were watching the horse under any other trainer we probably wouldn't even have taken any notice of him and would be a massive price. He has been bang average , your basically putting all the hope in the fact that a step up in trip brings about massive improvement.

It clears to see the plan for him but hard not to think something cant beat him.

There is a massive, massive difference between targetting a race and plotting for it though?

Why would any trainer not want their horse to win on the way to a peak novice chase, festival campaign?

[charlie]

Does anyone believe The Bosses Oscar is actually being plotted towards this race?

He's got to be one of the most over bet horses in training hasn't he?

Can anyone believe that? We know he's going for the race, off levels, and GE is campaigning him frequently which exposes his ability. It cant be a plot job.

[Quevega]

Does anyone believe The Bosses Oscar is actually being plotted towards this race?

He's got to be one of the most over bet horses in training hasn't he?

It's not a handicap so No.
As I mentioned previously I believe he is just getting runs under the belt and jumping experience.
It wouldn't surprise me if he's not working on the horse like he normally would in between races and is using the races to exercise him.

As far as any plot goes, if he is running without being bothered about winning then it is a plot, and it's designed to give him more options. And having options is always best.

The horse doesn't fit Gordon's usual MO for this race, but he appears to be trying to squeeze in a few races before xmas in the possible hope he can leave off till Spring, which we know he prefers to do, although he may have a handicap in mind in January/February in Ireland as a prep also.

His hurdling form shows him to have more ability than he's shown so far in his novice chase efforts.

Gordon may be thinking about his mark for the future also.
I don't think for a festival handicap, but it would obviously give him another option if his mark seemed favourable.

He's also recently won with a horse I think he had the National in mind for, but ended up on a mark of 154 after winning.
Gordon may even be thinking a lot further ahead for this horse.

I'd imagine if Gordon could get out of Cheltenham having won the race with a mark below 150 he'd be delighted.

Or he could just be a 145 horse at best

[Run4Home]

There is a massive, massive difference between targetting a race and plotting for it though?

Why would any trainer not want their horse to win on the way to a peak novice chase, festival campaign?

No dont think its a plot.
I think it's as simple as he is targeting the race, getting some runs in which will give him experience and improve his jumping. Step up to 3 miles next give him a run and put away till March.
Could win around Xmas & Chelt and will be hailed as a masterplan or even just Chelt.

[FinalFurlong91]

Can anyone believe that? We know he's going for the race, off levels, and GE is campaigning him frequently which exposes his ability. It cant be a plot job.

It could be a plot job but not for this

Elliot might want to win the thyestes with him or something before coming here

[doctorwu]

Its 47grand to the winner of The Troytown so I'm assuming RWF will be trying today. He looks like the best ew bet of the day. Cant have him out of the frame. I backed Top Moon last week at a decent price as well. Good luck today.