2022 National Hunt Novices Chase

[PresentingPercy]

Can’t believe your typing this at the exact same time as I was.

Great minds! You're right, if the plan is the Irish National, then NHC wont be priority number one. But for all the negative press Elliott seems to draw upon himself, he's one of the straightest shooters when it comes to telling the public the plans for his horses. He's been talking about the NHC since early Sept, I don't think he will deviate from that.

[Lbur4288]

I’d like to ask why you prefer Capodanno more Lbur?

I’ve backed him as well but just interested in why, is all. One of him and Ontheropes are the 2 Mullins runners I think will come here. On Capodanno, he has no Cheltenham experience and won’t before March imo. The Bosses Oscar has ran 2 credible races at the track. He’s also getting valuable chase experience in which this race tends to need, where Capodanno will likely get 2 runs prior to March if this is his target? Of Mullins horses I’d prefer Ontheropes over Capodanno to be honest but Saturday may determine how they campaign him from there onwards.

I think he's certainly a lot better than anything Mullins has previously entered in the Punchestown race he won back in April, I have got a lot written down but off the top of my head I can't remember if it's a race he's used in the past for his National Hunt sorts. He's a 147 rated hurdler and I have seen bits from Mullins commenting on his potential as a chaser, I know every trainer does this but I am inclined to agree. I see Capodanno as a horse who is probably too good for the handicaps but not quite at the level that some of his top novice chasers are...I could be way off the mark (I have been before) but I think he is a perfect fit for the NHC. He's had favourable mentions in the excellent Jumpers to follow and One Jump Ahead books (can't remember which it was but one certainly mentions the NHC as a potential destination) along with comments on here.

If I'm wrong, I'm happy to fall on my sword but at the price I'm willing to take the chance, especially as I missed the better prices on some of the market principals and the questions being asked over TBO.

[Saxon Warrior]

I think he's certainly a lot better than anything Mullins has previously entered in the Punchestown race he won back in April, I have got a lot written down but off the top of my head I can't remember if it's a race he's used in the past for his National Hunt sorts. He's a 147 rated hurdler and I have seen bits from Mullins commenting on his potential as a chaser, I know every trainer does this but I am inclined to agree. I see Capodanno as a horse who is probably too good for the handicaps but not quite at the level that some of his top novice chasers are...I could be way off the mark (I have been before) but I think he is a perfect fit for the NHC. He's had favourable mentions in the excellent Jumpers to follow and One Jump Ahead books (can't remember which it was but one certainly mentions the NHC as a potential destination) along with comments on here.

If I'm wrong, I'm happy to fall on my sword but at the price I'm willing to take the chance, especially as I missed the better prices on some of the market principals and the questions being asked over TBO.

You may like the ending to the link attached, that I wrote on 17th July on the NHC.
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https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat-...587#post311587

[Odin]

Could potentially use that argument for any horse that hasn't taken to fences though some just don't!

Even assuming he is running to get a low handicap mark, wouldn't you still be put off by the way he jumps? Doesn't look the best jumper of a fence to my eye. If he was being run over shorter trips (I know 2m6 is shorter than he wants) getting done for toe by speedier horses, or even just not being given a particularly hard time, then I'd be fully on board with you. But my gut feeling right now is just that he isn't good enough. I was genuinely curious if someone who has no bias from their wallet would still be interested in him as a NH Chase prospect based off his runs this season alone.

You definitely could use that argument for any horse - that's why it's such a great argument!

Honestly, I deliberately haven't watched any race other than his first so far. He jumped poorly on the first day and I was convinced this wasn't the race for him, but I trust that Gordon wants to get the Moran's a festival winner (have they had one yet?) And this race has been namechecked enough times to get him on side. For what it's worth, I take ability on trust in situations like these. The first race I'll rate him on properly will be a big handicap or the NH chase - I could easily be wrong and that's fine, but you could argue they showed too much of their hand before the pertemps last year and maybe they are just going a bit further the other way now. Either way, will be interesting to see what happens come March!

[Lbur4288]

You may like the ending to the link attached, that I wrote on 17th July on the NHC.
.

https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat-...587#post311587

I certainly do

[Hardy Eustace]

Absolutely loved reading the debate on TBO here - reminds me of the one we were having a couple of years ago with champ and the RSA. He ultimately did the business, heres hoping TBO does too!

[Leman14]

As with most things, it's price dependent.

Would you back TBO now @ 12/1? Probably not.
Will you be cashing out if you have TBO @ 25/1 or 33/1? Probably not

[ComplyOrDie]

Not Gordons usual MO to use the Troytown for his NH Chase hope, I don't believe, so the fact Run Wild Fred & Definite Plan are declared is probably a negative for this race, unless he's trying a different route/approach of course.

I suspect Definite Plan, and possibly even Run Wild Fred, depending on how he is campaigned, could end up with marks for the Kim Muir.

Edit: Just seen Ravenhill fell in the Troytown, although his initial target was the Kim Muir, until Champagne Classic got ruled out of the NH Chase.

[Hardy Eustace]

Not Gordons usual MO to use the Troytown for his NH Chase hope, I don't believe so the fact Run Wild Fred & Definite Plan are declared is probably a negative for this race, unless he's trying a different route/approach of course.

I suspect Definite Plan, and possibly even Run Wild Fred, depending on how he is campaigned, could end up with marks for the Kim Muir.

Edit: Just seen Ravenhill fell in the Troytown, although his initial target was the Kim Muir, until Champagne Classic got ruled out of the NH Chase.

Fair point CoD. I think it maybe cash out time if RWF looks like he is running with the handbrake on. It's a difficult one and needs some thought.

[ComplyOrDie]

Fair point CoD. I think it maybe cash out time if RWF looks like he is running with the handbrake on. It's a difficult one and needs some thought.

I mean, I wouldn't be cashing out bets just yet, it was just a bit of an observation. Could still go RWF - NH Chase, Definite Plan - Kim Muir, TBO - Possible handicap mark?

[Hardy Eustace]

I mean, I wouldn't be cashing out bets just yet, it was just a bit of an observation. Could still go RWF - NH Chase, Definite Plan - Kim Muir, TBO - Possible handicap mark?

But I suppose another substandard performance adds weight to the handicap route as opposed to the NHC which gordon has been very coy about and not mentioned at all (maybe becuase he knows giggi will pull rank).

EDIT: The National is the main aim so maybe he will try for a second and third and get an extra couple of pounds to guarantee he gets in. The more I think about it though the more i question him lining up here

[nortonscoin200]

I'd be amazed if Run Wild Fred (145 Irish handicap mark) is allowed to run off 145 in the Kim Muir by the British capper next March. For betting purposes that's a complete non-starter in my book.

But it does seem significant that Gordon has declared Run Wild Fred for the Troytown because it could blow his handicap mark for Aintree.

Also interesting is that out of Gordon's 7 entries in the race Davy will ride Run Wild Fred for the first time in his career.

My view is that they are prepared to blow RWF's mark for a big pot (47k to the winner on Sunday) and will certainly be going all out for the win.

And if Run Wild Fred wins the Troytown he's probably going to be hit with a minimum 8lb hike by the Irish handicapper - plus whatever extra he's given when he crosses the Irish Sea.

It's difficult to be precise on the Troytown winner's rating hike because the race has thrown up some extraordinary winning margins in recent years.

But here are the figures for the last 4 runnings.

2017 won by Mala Beach (148) by 2 3/4lengths. Raised 8lbs to 156.
2018 Tout Est Permis (138) won by 4 1/2 lengths. Raised 12lbs to 150
2019 won by Chris's Dream (146) by 9 1/2lengths. Raised 14lbs to 160.
2020 won by The Jam Man (129) by 18 lengths. Raised 19lbs to 148.

So a Run Wild Fred victory in the Troytown - using Mala Beach as the best recent guide - would see RWF's mark hit 153 in Ireland.

What would the British capper add on top for the Grand National? I'm guessing but maybe another 3-5lbs which would put his British mark on 156-158.

And if that scenario plays out on Sunday it would make Run Wild Fred a considerably less attractive betting proposition for Aintree (declaration of members interests: I backed him for the race back in the summer).

This year's Aintree hero Minella Times (146) ran off 10st 3lbs.

So assuming the same 146 mark gets roughly the same weight in next year's Grand National then Run Wild Fred would pitch up with about 10st 13lbs to 11st 1lbs.

And for me that's bang on the upper limit for any horse who's going to win the Grand National - and you've got to be pretty exceptional to carry even that much weight.

I for one doubt if Run Wild Fred is good enough to win the National off around 11 stone. But off about 10st 3lbs he's a great bet.

The point I'm laboriously making is that I'm sure Gordon's been campaigning Run Wild Fred with a view to landing a big pot off his handicap mark - he narrowly failed in the Irish National in April and this is the next pop at a big one.

If he bombs out on Sunday his mark will be intact and it's on to Aintree to try again. Even if he wins they will still give the National a go - he'd still be in with a shout for sure.

But the Troytown entry, for me, means Run Wild Fred's season is not being geared exclusively around protecting him for the Grand National.

And if I'm right - and particularly if he wins tomorrow - I firmly believe the National Hunt Chase (declaration of interests 2: I've backed him) will be his final prep for Aintree.

Run Wild Fred has so much going for him in the NHC I really think it'll be very difficult for Gordon to by-pass possibly RWF's best opportunity of the season - to land a big one at the Festival.

So I certainly wouldn't be cashing out those RWF for the NHC bets any time soon.

[ComplyOrDie]

As always nortonscoin200 a thorough assessment and I couldn't argue with the fact that if he won the Troytown he'd most definitely be a bet in the NH Chase as that would rule out the h'cap route for sure.

I do kinda disagree with the Davy booking thing though, he's been his go to jockey to protect marks and qualify for races in the past, what with all his experience in the book, and the ride that always springs to mind is the Pertemps qualifier for the first season when Sire Du Berlais went on to win the Pertemps Final at the festival, finishing 6th, just the spot to qualify and never nearer. It's just what he does, and he's been doing it a long time. I think he also achieved similar for Presenting Percy.

It will certainly be interesting to see how the race pans out for sure. I'll be keeping the bookmaker tabs open during the race (on those that don't suspend) ready to react though, if he does look like being a challenger come the final couple of fences.

[charlie]

Brave ruling out The Bosses Oscar IMO.

Irish favourites with 1 run or less at Cheltenham are extremely well backed, but do very poorly in this race (1 place in the last 8 years):

2011 - Chicago Grey - 4 (1st)
2012 - Teaforthree - 4 (1st)

2013 - Back In Focus - 0 (1st)
2014 - Foxrock - 0 (9th)
2015 - Very Wood - 1 (10th)
2016 - Southfield Royale - 0 (4th)
2017 - A Genie In A Bottle - 0 (5th)
2018 - Jury Duty - 1 (UR)
2019 - Ballyward - 1 (F)
2020 - Carefully Selected - 1 (UR)
2021 - Escaria Ten - 1 (3rd)

Thats a long list of short priced horses that have disappointed. It really is a unique test and experience at Cheltenham matters.

Current top 5 in the market are Irish trained (obviously all this can change). Number of runs at Cheltenham over hurdles (RPR posted)

Vanillier - 1 (153)
Stattler - 1 (140)
TBO - 2 (140, 155)
RWF - 0
Ontheropes - 0

Winners number of runs at Cheltenham (not just fez):

2011 - 4
2012 - 4
2013 - 0
2014 - 0
2015 - 4
2016 - 2
2017 - 4
2018 - 2
2019 - 3
2020 - 0
2021 - 3

There are winners with no experience, but the majority have 2-4 runs under their belt at Cheltenham

OR of the 1-2-3:

2012 - 146 - 137 - 137
2013 - 150 - 149 - 139
2014 - 139 - 151 - 136
2015 - 146 - 137 - 136
2016 - 143 - 149 -147
2017 - 152 - 145 - 146
2018 - 150 - 146 - 145
2019 - 145 - 148 -148
2020 - 142 - 153 - 132
2021 - 152 - 153 - 147

Average OR is 146. There are actually more high 140's low 150's horses finishing 2nd, than win the race.

Gordon (if you give him last year) has won 4 of the last 10 runners of this race. His winners record on route (*ran at Cheltenham) - odds - age:

2021: 1111* - 7/2 - 7
2020: 312152F - 12/1 - 10
2017: UR222133* - 16/1 - 7
2015: 75 - 8/1 - 7

I haven't been underwhelmed or overwhelmed by TBO, and have actually been quietly quite happy with how much better his jumping has been.

He ticks a lot of boxes for this race. If you don't have a second season chaser you want a novice out early gaining experience which he is. He's by Oscar who has produced a winner of this and he looks to my eye all over a stayer. He's experienced around Cheltenham. He's posted his best RPR's in the last two seasons at Cheltenham. Gordon is targeting the race. Gordon has won 4 of the last 10 runnings. Ratings wise, I expect TBO will be low to mid 140's which is bang on the money. He'll be 7 next year which 3/4 of Gordons have been.

[nortonscoin200]

As always nortonscoin200 a thorough assessment and I couldn't argue with the fact that if he won the Troytown he'd most definitely be a bet in the NH Chase as that would rule out the h'cap route for sure.

I do kinda disagree with the Davy booking thing though, he's been his go to jockey to protect marks and qualify for races in the past, what with all his experience in the book, and the ride that always springs to mind is the Pertemps qualifier for the first season when Sire Du Berlais went on to win the Pertemps Final at the festival, finishing 6th, just the spot to qualify and never nearer. It's just what he does, and he's been doing it a long time. I think he also achieved similar for Presenting Percy.

It will certainly be interesting to see how the race pans out for sure. I'll be keeping the bookmaker tabs open during the race (on those that don't suspend) ready to react though, if he does look like being a challenger come the final couple of fences.

Cheers COD.

My point is that if Gordon was seeking to protect Run Wild Fred's mark why on earth would he run him in the Troytown.

RWF's mark is perfect for the Grand National right now - he'll definitely get in off a low weight - so I can't see much upside in running and not trying.