If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
Announcement
Collapse
Fat Jockey Patrons
Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated. Become a Patron!
Yes, I think it would be silly to rule out any of Gordon's current NHC market horses. I'm pretty confident that he's been looking after him, getting experience and gradually getting him fit. Yes there are others I like more (Capodanno is one I'm invested in) but I am happy enough to see TBO as a live bet still and although I have no plans to place any more on him I am equally happy to see there hasn't been too much of an overreaction so far. One more run over the 2m7f to get him in and then Gordon will definitely have him ready to have a good go at taking the pot.
Maybe I worded my question wrong...
I haven't ruled him out (I think you'd be silly to), but from what I've seen so far, I really don't think he's good enough. As a fellow any race backer, I'd be happy to admit I'm wrong, but quite frankly I think it would have to be a pretty poor renewal for TBO to win this based on what we've seen so far alone.
Obviously the stable tour comments have to be taken into account. But I quite strongly believe that if this were any other horse which hadn't been given mentions in stable tours, most of us would have written him off by now. He's been beaten favourite 3 times now in races he should really be winning, how many more chances are people willing to give him? (Not rhetorical)
I can forgive him the first run, giving weight to race fit opposition, but that was about it for me.
I've backed him based on Elliott's stable tour comments (maybe I'm too trusting). Initially I couldn't see it because I was convinced Fred was coming here and he still might, but given all the noises it's a no brainer to have him on side. With regards the current evidence, the only thing I use for that is his 4th Martin Pipe and 2nd Pertemps, which are both good pieces of form. I'd say it's pretty obvious he's a handicap job right now (remember Irish horses get new handicap marks which are not based on their hurdles marks), so the current chasing evidence suggests that he isn't good enough, but I wouldn't expect it to. His festival form over hurdles for me suggests he'd have every chance though (if he's the chosen one), which as I said initially is a bit of a flip in mindset for me since I originally placed my 'saver' bets.
No doubt his form over hurdles is at least decent, I 100% agree that it's worth having him on side (with either any race or at least cash out) and there is a chance he is running to get a low mark before a big handicap pot onto the NHC. But from what I've seen so far, he just isn't the same horse over fences as he was over hurdles.
Anyone who is still undecided if TBO is NHC bound, why not just ease the pain and back him TWAR which covers every angle. 10/1 still available which isn't much different to his current NHC price and takes the will he, won't he agony away. That'll leave you more time to consider other races !
Anyone who is still undecided if TBO is NHC bound, why not just ease the pain and back him TWAR which covers every angle. 10/1 still available which isn't much different to his current NHC price and takes the will he, won't he agony away. That'll leave you more time to consider other races !
If he doesn’t go to the NHC lobos where would you have him?
It’s going to be an almighty ask to get him under 145 for the Kim muir.
Ultima / pertemps?
Maybe Gordon’s messing with us all and he’s not actually slow. He’s fucking knackered and needs dropping to 2 miles!! (I don’t really think that)
If he doesn’t go to the NHC lobos where would you have him?
It’s going to be an almighty ask to get him under 145 for the Kim muir.
Ultima / pertemps?
Maybe Gordon’s messing with us all and he’s not actually slow. He’s fucking knackered and needs dropping to 2 miles!! (I don’t really think that)
Pertempts again would be my guess. Sire did ok going back off top weight.
Yes, I think it would be silly to rule out any of Gordon's current NHC market horses. I'm pretty confident that he's been looking after him, getting experience and gradually getting him fit. Yes there are others I like more (Capodanno is one I'm invested in) but I am happy enough to see TBO as a live bet still and although I have no plans to place any more on him I am equally happy to see there hasn't been too much of an overreaction so far. One more run over the 2m7f to get him in and then Gordon will definitely have him ready to have a good go at taking the pot.
I’d like to ask why you prefer Capodanno more Lbur?
I’ve backed him as well but just interested in why, is all. One of him and Ontheropes are the 2 Mullins runners I think will come here. On Capodanno, he has no Cheltenham experience and won’t before March imo. The Bosses Oscar has ran 2 credible races at the track. He’s also getting valuable chase experience in which this race tends to need, where Capodanno will likely get 2 runs prior to March if this is his target? Of Mullins horses I’d prefer Ontheropes over Capodanno to be honest but Saturday may determine how they campaign him from there onwards.
No doubt his form over hurdles is at least decent, I 100% agree that it's worth having him on side (with either any race or at least cash out) and there is a chance he is running to get a low mark before a big handicap pot onto the NHC. But from what I've seen so far, he just isn't the same horse over fences as he was over hurdles.
That's exactly what a trainer who is trying to get a mark for a big handicap would want you to think. Don't get me wrong, his form over fences isn't good but I wouldn't really expect it to be so it doesn't concern me. Time could prove this isn't a plot and he's not actually that good over fences, but I've made more money from being sceptical that horses are running on their merits and drawing the lines between the dots than I have taking things at face value (I know you're not here, but just to play devils advocate on your original question)
That's exactly what a trainer who is trying to get a mark for a big handicap would want you to think. Don't get me wrong, his form over fences isn't good but I wouldn't really expect it to be so it doesn't concern me. Time could prove this isn't a plot and he's not actually that good over fences, but I've made more money from being sceptical that horses are running on their merits and drawing the lines between the dots than I have taking things at face value (I know you're not here, but just to play devils advocate on your original question)
I can definitely see this, with the Irish national being a month after Cheltenham, all the pre-Cheltenham chase experience runs are just about getting a low mark for that in April.
Am I right in saying they would know his mark prior to running in the NHC? If not if he ran and won the NHC would the Irish handicapper put him up?
Theres always a plan with Elliott, but as you say he may not just be that good but I don’t buy that, yet.
That's exactly what a trainer who is trying to get a mark for a big handicap would want you to think. Don't get me wrong, his form over fences isn't good but I wouldn't really expect it to be so it doesn't concern me. Time could prove this isn't a plot and he's not actually that good over fences, but I've made more money from being sceptical that horses are running on their merits and drawing the lines between the dots than I have taking things at face value (I know you're not here, but just to play devils advocate on your original question)
Could potentially use that argument for any horse that hasn't taken to fences though some just don't!
Even assuming he is running to get a low handicap mark, wouldn't you still be put off by the way he jumps? Doesn't look the best jumper of a fence to my eye. If he was being run over shorter trips (I know 2m6 is shorter than he wants) getting done for toe by speedier horses, or even just not being given a particularly hard time, then I'd be fully on board with you. But my gut feeling right now is just that he isn't good enough. I was genuinely curious if someone who has no bias from their wallet would still be interested in him as a NH Chase prospect based off his runs this season alone.
I can definitely see this, with the Irish national being a month after Cheltenham, all the pre-Cheltenham chase experience runs are just about getting a low mark for that in April.
Am I right in saying they would know his mark prior to running in the NHC? If not if he ran and won the NHC would the Irish handicapper put him up?
Theres always a plan with Elliott, but as you say he may not just be that good but I don’t buy that, yet.
TBO is going to the Irish National, isn’t he?
Its makes the most sense.
The UK capper has him at 154 Hurdles Provisional mark for his Pertemps Final 2nd place (on the BHA website).
So he isn’t going to run in a handicap chase at Cheltenham as the UK capper will assume he can run close to last years 154 hurdles mark when he reveals his true ability (if it is more than he is showing now).
In Ireland they give ratings to novice chasers purely on what they have done in chases, not hurdles.
So, to me, TBO is being campaigned by Gordon for a Big Irish Handicap, because he could end up easily be rated 135-140 for chases in Ireland (not the 150+ he would get in the UK), and have a lot in hand if he can run close to his hurdles mark over fences.
If it’s an early one in Ireland then it could be the Paddy Power Chase at Christmas in Leopardstown.
If it’s a spring one, then it could well be the Irish National at Easter.
If it is the Irish National, then he won’t be winning the NHC, as that win would take place before the Irish National weights come out, and he’d end up 150+.
If it’s the Paddy Power at Christmas then it could be that’s readying him for the NHC.
Im looking forward to seeing Gordon enter him in a handicap Chase in Ireland and in England now he has his 3 Chase runs, and assess where to go, from the marks he is given in both territories.
Last edited by Saxon Warrior; 18 November 2021, 09:51 PM.
With The Bosses Oscar having his three runs together to get a mark, I think the plan will now be to run him in a high value h'cap over 3M+ such as the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over the xmas. Be interesting to see entries over the xmas for him. To the untrained eye, he still doesn't appear 100% fit and hasn't been truly stretched by his rider yet, has run over inadequate trips on ground conditions that wouldn't particularly suit a dour stayer. It seems to be all about getting him experience over fences and attaining a low chase mark. Jumping has improved greatly over the last 3 races which is the plan coming along nicely in my view.
If people are underwhelmed by his last three races (me included), it's worth reminding yourself he is being campaigned by one of the best long range race planners in the business in Elliott. Trust the process!
With The Bosses Oscar having his three runs together to get a mark, I think the plan will now be to run him in a high value h'cap over 3M+ such as the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over the xmas. Be interesting to see entries over the xmas for him. To the untrained eye, he still doesn't appear 100% fit and hasn't been truly stretched by his rider yet, has run over inadequate trips on ground conditions that wouldn't particularly suit a dour stayer. It seems to be all about getting him experience over fences and attaining a low chase mark. Jumping has improved greatly over the last 3 races which is the plan coming along nicely in my view.
If people are underwhelmed by his last three races (me included), it's worth reminding yourself he is being campaigned by one of the best long range race planners in the business in Elliott. Trust the process!
Can’t believe your typing this at the exact same time as I was.
I watched the race reply tonight from TBO's race, and I wouldn't rule the horse out yet. Looking at the end of the race the horse was still plodding on and I think it wasn't a bad run as some think. Just looked more like an experience run more than anything. Yes it got beat by a horse that maybe the horse should of against, but saying that I just wouldn't rule him out of this race yet. Horse's that plod around are the ones that seem to win this kind of race. I'm still on my main selection Beacon Edge who I'm hoping will race at Fairyhouse later this month. But I may keep an eye on TBO'S odds for the coming weeks for a cover.
The UK capper has him at 154 Hurdles Provisional mark for his Pertemps Final 2nd place (on the BHA website).
So he isn’t going to run in a handicap chase at Cheltenham as the UK capper will assume he can run close to last years 154 hurdles mark when he reveals his true ability (if it is more than he is showing now).
In Ireland they give ratings to novice chasers purely on what they have done in chases, not hurdles.
So, to me, TBO is being campaigned by Gordon for a Big Irish Handicap, because he could end up easily be rated 135-140 for chases in Ireland (not the 150+ he would get in the UK), and have a lot in hand if he can run close to his hurdles mark over fences.
If it’s an early one in Ireland then it could be the Paddy Power Chase at Christmas in Leopardstown.
If it’s a spring one, then it could well be the Irish National at Easter.
If it is the Irish National, then he won’t be winning the NHC, as that win would take place before the Irish National weights come out, and he’d end up 150+.
If it’s the Paddy Power at Christmas then it could be that’s readying him for the NHC.
Thanks Saxon that answers my question
Elliott has been fairly open about the NHC in all his tours so the Xmas handicap in Ireland could well be the plan. Give him a break now till Xmas, run well/win that and then put him away for the NHC in March. I’d be surprised if he went against all that for the Irish national instead. He’s normally open and sticks to plans mentioned early season.
We process personal data about users of our site, through the use of cookies and other technologies, to deliver our services, personalize advertising, and to analyze site activity. We may share certain information about our users with our advertising and analytics partners. For additional details, refer to our Privacy Policy.
By clicking "I AGREE" below, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our personal data processing and cookie practices as described therein. You also acknowledge that this forum may be hosted outside your country and you consent to the collection, storage, and processing of your data in the country where this forum is hosted.
Tweet
fucking trainers, gobshites the lot of them 
some just don't!
Comment