2022 National Hunt Novices Chase

[Istabraq]

He could well make an absolute idiot of me in this, but I've given up with TBO, I don't feel he is as good as I thought he was & always seems to manage to find one to beat him. It may be the most obvious plot ever for this but just cannot bring myself to back him again.

Quevega has highlighted above that The Bosses Oscar and Run Wild Fred have spent their careers being plotted for specific handicaps so we won't have seen their true ability to date.
The same was true of Galvin who ran with the handbrake on until the 20f nov 'cap chase where he bumped into Imperial Aura but since then has won everything and is now considered a Gold Cup horse.
I'm prepared to ignore what both (TBO and RWF) have achieved so far and listen to Elliott who has said that TBO will target this and didn't mention RWF in the ATR stable tour, he knows what it takes to win the race and is TBO is sure to have untapped potential...

[Gloria Victis]

Yeah, appreciate all that and will not be the first or last time I get it wrong.

[Maxfield]

@ 25/1 Lord Royal is starting to look more and more appealing for this race.

[Birds Nest]

Yeah, appreciate all that and will not be the first or last time I get it wrong.

Love the name..Gloria Victis.....horse used to take my breath away with its jumping..great memories..

[Istabraq]

Yeah, appreciate all that and will not be the first or last time I get it wrong.

No-one's got anything wrong yet, and when those awards are handed out I expect to high up the list as someone who got stuck into Run Wild Fred through the Spring/Summer, Elliott maybe had too much time on his hands and while I was hitting buttons he was plotting horses....

[Lobos]

@ 25/1 Lord Royal is starting to look more and more appealing for this race.

Ran in it last year and was disappointing. Didn't look like he saw out the trip too well either imo.

[archie]

Much as we might think Gordon to be open about these matters, I remain unconvinced that any first season novice will be definitively aimed at the NHC before he's jumped a fence in public. The owners would much rather go for the ex-RSA and, in all likelihood, they only have 3 or 4 races to show that he's good enough for the NHC but not for the other race.

[Lobos]

The Bosses Oscar sea of blue. Those UTA Boyz certainly move markets!!

[FinalFurlong91]

If TBO loses and runs averagely again tomorrow and Gordon is still adamant he's his NHC horse the only thing I can see as a crumb of comfort is maybe hes planning on winning the thyestes with him on route to the NHC

id certainly start cooling on him unless he runs a big race tomorrow, pulling clear with beacon edge would be fine as he was a 158 rated hurdler

[Nathaniel99999]

Ruby did an analysis (36.54 onwards) on why he thinks Beacon Edge won’t be winning any time soon over fences on the latest ‘Road To Cheltenham’. Whether you agree or disagree, it’s worth a watch.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xkuoaN83bIw

Trust me Beacon Edge will stay over 3m and will win a race over fences and will do better than people think. The horse's jumping from the first race was faultless, got done near the end because the winner was too far infront I think plus Beacon Edge would of won if the trip was further. The horse will improve lots from it and that 20/1 will disappear once its won tomorrow I think.I don't see any other race where the horse would go if hacked up at Thurles.

[Quevega]

Trust me Beacon Edge will stay over 3m and will win a race over fences and will do better than people think. The horse's jumping from the first race was faultless, got done near the end because the winner was too far infront I think plus Beacon Edge would of won if the trip was further. The horse will improve lots from it and that 20/1 will disappear once its won tomorrow I think.I don't see any other race where the horse would go if hacked up at Thurles.

I believed every word until you said "Trust me".

[Quevega]

If TBO loses and runs averagely again tomorrow and Gordon is still adamant he's his NHC horse the only thing I can see as a crumb of comfort is maybe hes planning on winning the thyestes with him on route to the NHC

id certainly start cooling on him unless he runs a big race tomorrow, pulling clear with beacon edge would be fine as he was a 158 rated hurdler

It does seem obvious that he is simply getting runs under his belt and experience.
We probably won't see his true running until he is trying to qualify, and then again in March.
It's looking more and more likely that he'll run again in December over the Qualifying distance and then be put away.

[Nathaniel99999]

I believed every word until you said "Trust me".

Haha you don't have to take my word for it, maybe I did go overboard with those words, but I do think this horse is underrated by people. I mean when I look at the betting the only 2 standouts were Beacon Edge and Ahoy Senor, but Ahoy I'm not sure whats going on with at the moment though.

[Nathaniel99999]

Haha you don't have to take my word for it, maybe I did go overboard with those words, but I do think this horse is underrated by people. I mean when I look at the betting the only 2 standouts were Beacon Edge and Ahoy Senor, but Ahoy I'm not sure whats going on with at the moment though.

Forgot to add I know Ahoy Senor did not have a good chase debut since the jockey unseated, but I do find the horse a mystery since it can stay 3m since its hurdles win proved that, but yet the horse did not look right from its debut. I have a feeling it may go back to hurdles for a spin I'm not sure. But other than that horse only Beacon Edge was a standout for me.

[Lobos]

It does seem obvious that he is simply getting runs under his belt and experience.
We probably won't see his true running until he is trying to qualify, and then again in March.
It's looking more and more likely that he'll run again in December over the Qualifying distance and then be put away.

Yep, agree with this. They'll not be worried about winning races if they are going for the NHC they'll just be gaining experience. Slowly, slowly, catchy monkey.