2022 National Hunt Novices Chase

[charlie]

Just making it clear that confirmation of a horse's target doesn't mean you have to back.

Obviously this is true, but its handy for those already on to know all roads lead here

TBO might not be good enough, but at this time in respective years that could have been said that legitimately about most runners who win this, and lots of those weren't even on the radar in November.

[jono]

The Bosses Oscar is a must to be backed imo.
Even if I didn’t particularly fancy his chances come the day (and he’s certainly not at the head of my shortlist) Elliott has such a good record in the race:

- won 4 of the last 7 renewals
- had the 4/1 fav in the 2018 race
- Codd who was due to ride his antepost fav Champagne Classic ended up riding the winner le Breuil in 2019

I can’t ignore any runner.
Certainly not one that despite being fairly underwhelming so far over fences, has a 2nd in the Pertemps and a staying on run in the Martin Pipe in 2 festivals runs.

Run Wild Fred - I’d love to see line up here.
I think that decision could go either way.
And it’s not out of the question that Elliott runs a couple.

But TBO being name checked for this, multiple times is significant and makes him a must play imo.
Unless you think he becomes either a bigger price through the season (could well happen) or is bigger on the day (unlikely)

[Quevega]

The Bosses Oscar is a must to be backed imo.
Even if I didn’t particularly fancy his chances come the day (and he’s certainly not at the head of my shortlist) Elliott has such a good record in the race:

- won 4 of the last 7 renewals
- had the 4/1 fav in the 2018 race
- Codd who was due to ride his antepost fav Champagne Classic ended up riding the winner le Breuil in 2019

I can’t ignore any runner.
Certainly not one that despite being fairly underwhelming so far over fences, has a 2nd in the Pertemps and a staying on run in the Martin Pipe in 2 festivals runs.

Run Wild Fred - I’d love to see line up here.
I think that decision could go either way.
And it’s not out of the question that Elliott runs a couple.

But TBO being name checked for this, multiple times is significant and makes him a must play imo.
Unless you think he becomes either a bigger price through the season (could well happen) or is bigger on the day (unlikely)

I agree, been mulling it this morning.
Ignored him originally through lack of experience.
Ran shit first time up.
Drifted back to 25-1, and had already been mentioned in a stable tour on ATR.
So I backed it at 25-1.
Ran shit again.
Cashed out.
drifted back to 25-1 and I thought I'd then wait until he gets another entry over a qualifying trip.
Then got backed in again, which I didn't expect.
Now he gets another mention.
I've just backed at 16-1
Don't want him to win, but better to have the saver on at 16-1 I reckon cos he keeps getting backed back in and is clearly talented on his day.
Thankfully Gordon has not committed Jamie Codd.
His next run is likely to be over a qualifying trip I reckon so he will need to run reasonably well, so is likely to get backed again.
And laurel and hardy may well tip him up soon.

He is still not qualified though.

[jono]

I agree, been mulling it this morning.
Ignored him originally through lack of experience.
Ran shit first time up.
Drifted back to 25-1, and had already been mentioned in a stable tour on ATR.
So I backed it at 25-1.
Ran shit again.
Cashed out.
drifted back to 25-1 and I thought I'd then wait until he gets another entry over a qualifying trip.
Then got backed in again, which I didn't expect.
Now he gets another mention.
I've just backed at 16-1
Don't want him to win, but better to have the saver on at 16-1 I reckon cos he keeps getting backed back in and is clearly talented on his day.
Thankfully Gordon has not committed Jamie Codd.
His next run is likely to be over a qualifying trip I reckon so he will need to run reasonably well, so is likely to get backed again.
And laurel and hardy may well tip him up soon.

He is still not qualified though.

If he runs in one and qualifies. But underwhelms again.
Will you keep him onside?
(Granted there’s usually additional things to factor in)

I wouldn’t be worried about not being qualified mid November.
I’d worry about that sort of thing around January time or only if I’m trying to second guess targets.
You’d worry if they missed qualifying him having earmarked the race in October!

[Quevega]

If he runs in one and qualifies. But underwhelms again.
Will you keep him onside?
(Granted there’s usually additional things to factor in)

I wouldn’t be worried about not being qualified mid November.
I’d worry about that sort of thing around January time or only if I’m trying to second guess targets.
You’d worry if they missed qualifying him having earmarked the race in October!

The qualifying thing puzzles me a bit.
He's ran twice over 2m 6f and 2m6.5f and is entered at thurles this week over 2m 6f.
It's only 1f further they need to go roughly - so why not get it in the bag early doors ?

Only takes a stone bruise or a fall in the race when he's trying to qualify. Or weather cancelling etc etc.
And we know Gordon likes to give them time off before March, at least his winners generally have.

[Lobos]

The qualifying thing puzzles me a bit.
He's ran twice over 2m 6f and 2m6.5f and is entered at thurles this week over 2m 6f.
It's only 1f further they need to go roughly - so why not get it in the bag early doors ?

Only takes a stone bruise or a fall in the race when he's trying to qualify. Or weather cancelling etc etc.
And we know Gordon likes to give them time off before March, at least his winners generally have.

He made us all really sweat until this weekend gone with Galvin so perhaps he enjoyed that and is holding on a little longer with TBO. Bastard.

[BigChaang]

And laurel and hardy may well tip him up soon.

.

.

[Clinker]

I'm at a real crossroads with RWF, do people think he will run in the NHC ?? He's probably my biggest investment to date and hasn't really filled me with confidence recently.

[Quevega]

I'm at a real crossroads with RWF, do people think he will run in the NHC ?? He's probably my biggest investment to date and hasn't really filled me with confidence recently.

I think Gordon would commit him now and say he'd run in that as a prep for the Grand National.
But he can't cos the owners won't let him.

Whereas the Bosses Oscar's owner is probably happy to allow Gordon to set the race as his main goal.

They all have to be fit and ready to run first, and then obtain good jockeys.

[Lobos]

I'm at a real crossroads with RWF, do people think he will run in the NHC ?? He's probably my biggest investment to date and hasn't really filled me with confidence recently.

Plenty written about him on here so up to you to make that decision. Probably unfair to leave it to others to make it for you. Email Gordon maybe ? He has replied in the past.

[Clinker]

Plenty written about him on here so up to you to make that decision. Probably unfair to leave it to others to make it for you. Email Gordon maybe ? He has replied in the past.

Hey Lobos, apologies wasn't looking for others to make my decisions just interested in others views as I'm sure people in my boat too. Will re-read posts and go from there... would be great wouldn't it if trainers responded!!

[PresentingPercy]

I think Gordon would commit him now and say he'd run in that as a prep for the Grand National.
But he can't cos the owners won't let him.

Whereas the Bosses Oscar's owner is probably happy to allow Gordon to set the race as his main goal.

They all have to be fit and ready to run first, and then obtain good jockeys.

Thats it in a nutshell, Gordon is the de facto race planner for the Moran owned horses, Eddie O'Leary calls the majority of the shots for the Gigginstown horses. We probably won't know RWF plan until the week or two before Chelt or when Eddie joins the panel on a preview night before the festival. I think we will be lucky to know for sure before then

[Lobos]

Hey Lobos, apologies wasn't looking for others to make my decisions just interested in others views as I'm sure people in my boat too. Will re-read posts and go from there... would be great wouldn't it if trainers responded!!

Soz if my post came across a little blunt. You know what I meant. Some trainers do come back so worth a go. Good luck with the decision !

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Thats it in a nutshell, Gordon is the de facto race planner for the Moran owned horses, Eddie O'Leary calls the majority of the shots for the Gigginstown horses. We probably won't know RWF plan until the week or two before Chelt or when Eddie joins the panel on a preview night before the festival. I think we will be lucky to know for sure before then

I agree. We won't know for sure until 48 hours before race day. It was obvious he was being aimed at a staying handicap but yesterday it was confirmed as The Grand National. Connections will no doubt consider the NHC as a prep race for the National. I'm sure Saxon has suggested that the weights for the National are announced before the NHC takes place so at that point they are cast in stone as far as I know. If he runs well or wins the NHC he becomes one of the horse's ahead of the handicapper and as such one of the so called 'good things' for Aintree. I'd be surprised if Run Wild Fred wins many / any races en route to the festival / and or The National so for me it's unlikely that his price contracts between now and March.

[ToniC]

I'm at a real crossroads with RWF, do people think he will run in the NHC ?? He's probably my biggest investment to date and hasn't really filled me with confidence recently.

Gordon’s got this race by the short & curlies so RWFs credentials for it could hardly be lost on him. It’s 1.01 he will have the race in mind.

Question for me is, do they think he’s such a good thing for the national that they do everything & anything they can to ensure he gets there with the best chance of winning, even if it means forsaking other potential prizes on the way? Would 4 miles around Cheltenham 4 weeks before be considered a sub-optimal prep? Who knows, and a lot of it is probably mind games too, do they want the handicapper knowing they think he has a winners chance in a festival race when he’s doing the national weights?