2022 National Hunt Novices Chase

[doctorwu]

From Saxon Warrior Gordon diary;


Ravenhill .... was a stand-in for the NHC (a 10yo) once the stable lost race favourite Champagne Classic (8yo) with injury close to the Festival. ----

If champagne classic was the designated NHC horse until injury, ravenhill wasn't necessarily following Gordon's NHC path until he had to be re-routed.

In saying that, looking at champagne classic's path up until injury, he went to Wexford in October 2019, had a look at the same race this year and Gordon had Conflated entered who finished 2nd behind Eklat De Rire.

Is Conflated priced up anywhere?


- graded chaser who's been out already this season
- has plenty of chase experience
- OR 145
- Negative in that hasn't placed 1-2 in a 3 mile chase yet but still time to do so, has placed 3rd previously


Entered at Troytown handicap steeplechase at Navan on 21st November at the moment.

Happy for someone to tell me I'm talking bollocks here but does he not meet Gordon's criteria for this race?

Conflated not a novice.

[That Horse]

Conflated not a novice.

That'll do it

[Odin]

I'd rather he win the troytown or go very close for the sake of NH chase bets.

This is 100% what I'm thinking. Sitting on a decent 12pt cashout for my roll up on Fred ATM so I'm not sure if I should or shouldn't be taking it after 'losing' 10pts by waiting too long on Galvin xc

[Lobos]

Street's of Doyen gets the all important 3mile entry at Cheltenham on Sunday.

[JackieMoon33]

Street's of Doyen gets the all important 3mile entry at Cheltenham on Sunday.

I noticed he's also entered in the Florida Pearl on Sunday at Punchestown too. That doesn't look the strongest of renewals and the Cheltenham race may be potentially stronger.

[charlie]

I'm trying not to back British trained horses without good reason, but have added Does He Know @ 36/1 (33/1 boosted with Hills). I know he's a bit of a head case and comes with his quirks, but he's already qualified for the race and if he wins on Sunday, his form figures at Cheltenham would read 11511. He's not flashy nor is he the best jumper, but that hasn't stopped similar winning this, and when I look at the graveyard of inexperienced Irish hotpots that fail in this, an experienced horse around Cheltenham rated into the high 140's and potentially low 150's at 40/1 looks good, especially when he could go 4/5 at Cheltenham this weekend, by which point, that price is gone.

[JamieSensible]

I'm trying not to back British trained horses without good reason, but have added Does He Know @ 36/1 (33/1 boosted with Hills). I know he's a bit of a head case and comes with his quirks, but he's already qualified for the race and if he wins on Sunday, his form figures at Cheltenham would read 11511. He's not flashy nor is he the best jumper, but that hasn't stopped similar winning this, and when I look at the graveyard of inexperienced Irish hotpots that fail in this, an experienced horse around Cheltenham rated into the high 140's and potentially low 150's at 40/1 looks good, especially when he could go 4/5 at Cheltenham this weekend, by which point, that price is gone.

I think this horse has Ultima written all over him, I'll be incredibly reluctant to back a British horse in a graded race this year at Cheltenham .

[charlie]

I think this horse has Ultima written all over him, I'll be incredibly reluctant to back a British horse in a graded race this year at Cheltenham .

I don't think the Ultima would suit him. He get's buzzed up easily and can jump a bit low. The Ultima will almost certainly be more runners, and be run at a more frantic tempo. I don't think that would suit him at all and Kim Bailey will know that, whereas a more sedate pace with fewer runners would be ideal. Also, KB starting at 2m6f and then taking on two consecutive engagements at Cheltenham over 3m+ don't scream Ultima as his mark keeps going up and he'll run himself into not being well handicapped.

Not backing British horses in graded races is a theme of the forum, hence my opening statement. This is a Grade 2 though - much more to the British level

[Birds Nest]

That last win for DHK was a good effort as he was hating ground that day too, some of baileys post race comments referred to the horse not wanting to put down on it at all.

[JamieSensible]

I don't think the Ultima would suit him. He get's buzzed up easily and can jump a bit low. The Ultima will almost certainly be more runners, and be run at a more frantic tempo. I don't think that would suit him at all and Kim Bailey will know that, whereas a more sedate pace with fewer runners would be ideal. Also, KB starting at 2m6f and then taking on two consecutive engagements at Cheltenham over 3m+ don't scream Ultima as his mark keeps going up and he'll run himself into not being well handicapped.

Not backing British horses in graded races is a theme of the forum, hence my opening statement. This is a Grade 2 though - much more to the British level

I think Kim should of won the race(Ultima) with Happygolucky last year, I was on at 25/1 very disappointed with it. But I think he knows his horses are not up to the standard. This horse stays for days which I think you need to go the Ultima gallop. Like I said, I just can't have English horses in graded races. Bailey's redemption, this horse wins the Ultima.

[Quevega]

I don't think the Ultima would suit him. He get's buzzed up easily and can jump a bit low. The Ultima will almost certainly be more runners, and be run at a more frantic tempo. I don't think that would suit him at all and Kim Bailey will know that, whereas a more sedate pace with fewer runners would be ideal. Also, KB starting at 2m6f and then taking on two consecutive engagements at Cheltenham over 3m+ don't scream Ultima as his mark keeps going up and he'll run himself into not being well handicapped.

Not backing British horses in graded races is a theme of the forum, hence my opening statement. This is a Grade 2 though - much more to the British level

I like this horse.
The issue for this race is the jockey.
I can't really see Bass giving the ride up, and Bailey would not hesitate running in the Ultima off a big weight, and then there's the RSA.
Obviously as soon as he gets over 150 I'd steer clear (probably), even though novices win most of the handicaps at the festival these days.
Only one has ever won off a mark above 150 (I think)
And he wasn't really a novice.

If you look at his opponents and the weights on Sunday, he'd actually have to win very well to go up much at all.
Ultima would look the option if the mark is anything like 150 or under, with Bass on his back.
Needs to brush up his jumping though for a race like the Ultima, and if not then the NH chase may well get considered by Bailey.

[charlie]

I like this horse.
The issue for this race is the jockey.
I can't really see Bass giving the ride up, and Bailey would not hesitate running in the Ultima off a big weight, and then there's the RSA.
Obviously as soon as he gets over 150 I'd steer clear (probably), even though novices win most of the handicaps at the festival these days.
Only one has ever won off a mark above 150 (I think)
And he wasn't really a novice.

If you look at his opponents and the weights on Sunday, he'd actually have to win very well to go up much at all.
Ultima would look the option if the mark is anything like 150 or under, with Bass on his back.
Needs to brush up his jumping though for a race like the Ultima, and if not then the NH chase may well get considered by Bailey.

Bailey thinks he's most likely Grade 2 level. Be surprised if he was up to RSA level, which leaves his options as this or Ultima.

Re the Jockey, familiarity with a head case can be invaluable so Bass would have no real reason to get off him, nor would Kim be incentivised to do so.

Let's see what happens Sunday, hopefully more will be revealed.

[Quevega]

Bailey thinks he's most likely Grade 2 level. Be surprised if he was up to RSA level, which leaves his options as this or Ultima.

Re the Jockey, familiarity with a head case can be invaluable so Bass would have no real reason to get off him, nor would Kim be incentivised to do so.

Let's see what happens Sunday, hopefully more will be revealed.

He'd definitely be a contender in this.
It's just the jockey thing that puts me off.
Can only remember Bailey having 1 runner in last few years, although he did get B O'Neill for the ride.
He would want a top amateur and the Irish will have most sewn up.

[Winging The Last]

The Bosses Oscar has been entered again in a 2.6m chase on Thursday at Thurles.

Others include:

Beacon Edge
Deploy The Getaway
Frontal Assault
Stratum

[Lobos]

Street's of Doyen declared Cheltenham Sunday. Lovely.