2022 National Hunt Novices Chase

[Saxon Warrior]

How do the stats stack up for Capodanno? This is not a race I focus on but I’m intrigued as he would not be a typical type on stats from memory. He’s a 6yo, with no PtP or bumper experience so he seems to have a strange profile in that respect.

2016 Minella Rocco (6yo)
JP McManus - Jonjo O'Neill, Derek O'Connor

1 P2P win (RPR 92)
2 hurdles runs/Wins -11/ (RPR 146)
4 Chase runs -3P62 (RPR 151)

beat another 6yo Native River in it.

----------------------------------------------------

2022 Capodanno (6yo)
JP McManus - Willie Mullins, Derek O'Connor (or Patrick?)

E185,000 Arqana Nov 2019; first foal; dam French 2m1f-2m3f hurdle/chase winner, half-sister to French 2m1f Listed hurdle winner Fraulein Agatha (by Manduro)

1 French Hurdle -2 (RPR 123)
6 Irish Hurdles -31341 (RPR 151)

--------------------------

https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat-...587#post311587

7yo's have debt the best recent record, though thats because they run in it.
Theres only neen one 6yo run in the last two editions, since Discorama (6yo) was beaten by the length of an eyelash in 2019.

Historically 4yos and 5yos won it regularly, but thats a tale from a distant past.

[JackieMoon33]

Saxon Warrior So he’d be a slight outlier rather than a main trend? Is the second season novice only a strong trend in recent years?

[charlie]

For those that like Capodanno @ 20/1, Crosshill must surely appeal at 66/1. Crosshill held Capodanno at Fairyhouse giving him weight and has better form of the two over hurdles. By Sholokhov, Crosshill has a far more attractive staying chaser pedigree, and is owned by a man who has won 2 out of the last 4 runnings of this race. JP obviously has lots of NHC options, Ronnie Bartlett has seemingly 2. According to Jessie Harrington, they think he could be one for the RSA. Citing the RSA as a potential target might put people off, but it was music to my ears. They clearly think he's very good with a promising future over fences, and I'm conscious Jessie will be aiming high knowing that if he doesn't quite cut the mustard vs the very best 3 milers, then the NHC becomes a very realistic option for an owner that has a strong affiliation with the race. Jessie is not one to target this race (1 runner in a decade I think), but the owners form an important part of the equation IMO, and I think he'll enjoy going further than 3 miles. It's impossible to be confident because there are tons of 'ifs' and 'buts' and he's priced accordingly, but the glimmers of talent are there. His hurdles debut was superb, running to an RPR of 141 beating a subsequent Grade 1 winner, comfortably. He was then out of his depth running over 2m, before going for the Lawlor's where he tanked turning in for home before being outpaced and making a mistake. He then lost to Capodanno by half a length over 2m4f, but then reversed that form over 3m like a horse that enjoyed going up in trip. Punchestown was a disappointment, but the fact they persist with him at that level, plus cite the RSA, tells us they think he's a very good horse, and thats all you need to be to win this. I think he'll emerge as a player here and 66/1 is about the right price to find out.

[Faugheen_Machine]

We’ll see what happens in the Ladbrokes. If he wins that he won’t be going the NHC

You thinking he'll go RSA?

[nortonscoin200]

For those that like Capodanno @ 20/1, Crosshill must surely appeal at 66/1. Crosshill held Capodanno at Fairyhouse giving him weight and has better form of the two over hurdles. By Sholokhov, Crosshill has a far more attractive staying chaser pedigree, and is owned by a man who has won 2 out of the last 4 runnings of this race. JP obviously has lots of NHC options, Ronnie Bartlett has seemingly 2. According to Jessie Harrington, they think he could be one for the RSA. Citing the RSA as a potential target might put people off, but it was music to my ears. They clearly think he's very good with a promising future over fences, and I'm conscious Jessie will be aiming high knowing that if he doesn't quite cut the mustard vs the very best 3 milers, then the NHC becomes a very realistic option for an owner that has a strong affiliation with the race. Jessie is not one to target this race (1 runner in a decade I think), but the owners form an important part of the equation IMO, and I think he'll enjoy going further than 3 miles. It's impossible to be confident because there are tons of 'ifs' and 'buts' and he's priced accordingly, but the glimmers of talent are there. His hurdles debut was superb, running to an RPR of 141 beating a subsequent Grade 1 winner, comfortably. He was then out of his depth running over 2m, before going for the Lawlor's where he tanked turning in for home before being outpaced and making a mistake. He then lost to Capodanno by half a length over 2m4f, but then reversed that form over 3m like a horse that enjoyed going up in trip. Punchestown was a disappointment, but the fact they persist with him at that level, plus cite the RSA, tells us they think he's a very good horse, and thats all you need to be to win this. I think he'll emerge as a player here and 66/1 is about the right price to find out.

Cracking post Charlie - I'll have a bit of that.

Mullins also said in his stable tour that if Stattler proves good enough he could go down the RSA route. So nothing is set in stone for either of them at this stage.

Mullins Stattler quotes: "He looks an out-and-out stayer and will be going novice chasing this season. He looks tailor-made for the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham and if he’s better than that could be a RSA horse but I think the trip is everything for him."

[Kautostar]

You thinking he'll go RSA?

Could even have a go at the gold cup with Willie being short of genuine contenders, he’s got plenty of experience. He’s a TWAR bet unless you want to be hovering over cash out buttons all season

[Lobos]

Deleted....

[jonthehammer]

For those that like Capodanno @ 20/1, Crosshill must surely appeal at 66/1. Crosshill held Capodanno at Fairyhouse giving him weight and has better form of the two over hurdles. By Sholokhov, Crosshill has a far more attractive staying chaser pedigree, and is owned by a man who has won 2 out of the last 4 runnings of this race. JP obviously has lots of NHC options, Ronnie Bartlett has seemingly 2. According to Jessie Harrington, they think he could be one for the RSA. Citing the RSA as a potential target might put people off, but it was music to my ears. They clearly think he's very good with a promising future over fences, and I'm conscious Jessie will be aiming high knowing that if he doesn't quite cut the mustard vs the very best 3 milers, then the NHC becomes a very realistic option for an owner that has a strong affiliation with the race. Jessie is not one to target this race (1 runner in a decade I think), but the owners form an important part of the equation IMO, and I think he'll enjoy going further than 3 miles. It's impossible to be confident because there are tons of 'ifs' and 'buts' and he's priced accordingly, but the glimmers of talent are there. His hurdles debut was superb, running to an RPR of 141 beating a subsequent Grade 1 winner, comfortably. He was then out of his depth running over 2m, before going for the Lawlor's where he tanked turning in for home before being outpaced and making a mistake. He then lost to Capodanno by half a length over 2m4f, but then reversed that form over 3m like a horse that enjoyed going up in trip. Punchestown was a disappointment, but the fact they persist with him at that level, plus cite the RSA, tells us they think he's a very good horse, and thats all you need to be to win this. I think he'll emerge as a player here and 66/1 is about the right price to find out.

You know i am already with you on this one Charlie, hes got to be worth a stab

[charlie]

You know i am already with you on this one Charlie, hes got to be worth a stab

Yeh I remember you saying pal. Just thought I'd make the case as others were mentioning Capodanno and I think Crosshill is a better bet at three times the price.

Could be a non starter. The dream is he wins a beginners chase, looks very good, steps up to 3m and gets put in his place by one of Willies, then steps up and goes NHC. Any magic lamps about

[jonthehammer]

Yeh I remember you saying pal. Just thought I'd make the case as others were mentioning Capodanno and I think Crosshill is a better bet at three times the price.

Could be a non starter. The dream is he wins a beginners chase, looks very good, steps up to 3m and gets put in his place by one of Willies, then steps up and goes NHC. Any magic lamps about

haha that will do for me, eagerly awaiting entries now,

[The King Pimm]

I’m still hoping Streets of Doyen ends up in this race. He’s my outsider bet at the moment. He ran well at Cheltenham last season and started ok over fences, hopefully a few more races and he’ll be a live outsider. He was rubbish last time out but the trainer had made the effort to bring him over to Worcester so it may have been an off day

[The King Pimm]

What did people thin’ of RWF’s run today. It looked more like a handicap reducing ride to me rather than a NH Chase performance. Could they get him below 145 in the UK? Probably only a 5 pound reduction required. I’m not sure they have NH Chase in mind. Thoughts?

I don’t think RWF jumps well enough to perform well in the big field Grand National. He needs a trip but some of his jumping is scruffy so the NHC may be the right race for him

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

I don’t think RWF jumps well enough to perform well in the big field Grand National. He needs a trip but some of his jumping is scruffy so the NHC may be the right race for him

Im just not sure RWF is good enough to win the NH Chase. As we know Galvin won last year but not by far and he is a much better horse than RWF. It will obviously depend upon who turns up but I suspect there may be some better horses than him.

[Spectre]

Where Crosshill ends up may also hinge on Ashdale Bob. Assuming they both prove good enough to contest the two staying chases at the Festival presumably Jessie would look to split them up.

Ashdale Bob probably achieved more than Crosshill last season, but I suspect Crosshill will end up being a stouter stayer than Ashdale Bob.

As you point out though, there is also the potential that Ronnie Bartlett may want his two split up.

[JamieSensible]

Where Crosshill ends up may also hinge on Ashdale Bob. Assuming they both prove good enough to contest the two staying chases at the Festival presumably Jessie would look to split them up.

Ashdale Bob probably achieved more than Crosshill last season, but I suspect Crosshill will end up being a stouter stayer than Ashdale Bob.

As you point out though, there is also the potential that Ronnie Bartlett may want his two split up.

I just thought crosshill was unlucky last year, beat the Albert Bartlett winner by 10 lengths and then I don't think he acted on the ground too well after. The way Harrington mentioned his chances in the racing post write up fills me with confidence. Especially following the way Lifetime Ambition came out and won the other day. I've backed it for the RSA at 56/1 so I'd rather it went there, but it does look to stay for days.