2022 National Hunt Novices Chase

[Saxon Warrior]

He’s likely to have Jamie Codd on board, which gives him at least a 10 length advantage!

It would be good to see JC up on him next time out, that would be a big steer that he is Gordon's Number 1 hope (for now) and not just "a" hope for it.

[Hurdles or chasing]

Lord Royal has the right profile for this race being a second season novice. The stable seemed to have high hopes at the start of last season. He took a nasty fall in his beginners chase and his season never really got going. Given he is only a 6 year old with 7 runs he should be open to lots of improvement and he will certainly have to. Was asking a lot for him to run in the race last year. Wouldn't be surprised if he got some positive mentions in Mullins stable tour and might be worth getting priced up before it comes out.

I do prefer On The Ropes but I would consider Lord Royal if In could get a wild price with cash out.

[Birds Nest]

We know the Irish have had 4 of the last 5 winners but on closer inspection it still is one of the better races for the english too, last 10 years 2/3rds of all win or placed have been home trained, so although i agree that the first place to look would be to GE or WPM im also on the look out for mainland lurkers. One such one could be Honest vic, who has excelled after being upped in trip last season, 150 rated hurdler, same as TBO and Vanillier, who has won round the course and was 5th in the coral. This a Daly family horse owned by Henrys partner, mum and his cousin. Will be aimed at the festival with this surely being the target. Biddick would probably get the leg up too.

[Diamond Geezer]

Rider cam on Honest Vic's galloip this morning from Henry's Twitter account

https://twitter.com/i/status/1448710544970633221

[jonthehammer]

We know the Irish have had 4 of the last 5 winners but on closer inspection it still is one of the better races for the english too, last 10 years 2/3rds of all win or placed have been home trained, so although i agree that the first place to look would be to GE or WPM im also on the look out for mainland lurkers. One such one could be Honest vic, who has excelled after being upped in trip last season, 150 rated hurdler, same as TBO and Vanillier, who has won round the course and was 5th in the coral. This a Daly family horse owned by Henrys partner, mum and his cousin. Will be aimed at the festival with this surely being the target. Biddick would probably get the leg up too.

I already have Honest Vic in my mind for the Ultima if he can keep his mark, he stayed on well on his debut last week after being out paced. I must admit i hadnt thought of this race. He is a course winner as well as you say

[Lobos]

Jonjo O'Neil has a fantastic run/win record in the 4 miler, probably every bit as good as Mullins/Gord. If he has a runner aimed at the race I'll jump on it.

[jonthehammer]

The Bosses Oscar and Crosshill are my only bets in the race at the moment.

I want to back Dickie Diver but I'm losing faith in Henderson. Seems to find excuses to not campaign horses, or over complicate things. I do like him at 33/1. The RSA was a big ask on only his second chase start and I think he could be a player in this. If Henderson said now this was the plan, I'd park my reservations and back him immediately.

The Gigginstown runners jump off the page, but MOL is way too temperamental. You could back Fury Road now at 25/1 and have him go down to 7/2 fav, only to be pulled in favour of the Irish National.

Oscar Elite is interesting @ 40/1. You could argue he's one of if not the best british-trained staying novice hurdlers. He handled Cheltenham no problem, he's by Oscar so 4 miles should be no problem. I quite like him. The Tizzard's have aimed lots of horses at the RSA in recent years and come up short, so my hope he comes here. I might back him

Ive had Crosshill priced up by 365 charlie, 66/1 with cashout. I liked him last season as well

[charlie]

Jonjo O'Neil has a fantastic run/win record in the 4 miler, probably every bit as good as Mullins/Gord. If he has a runner aimed at the race I'll jump on it.

I’m not backing it if you’re riding Lobos

[charlie]

Ive had Crosshill priced up by 365 charlie, 66/1 with cashout. I liked him last season as well

Cheers pal, that’s handy, much appreciated.

[Lobos]

I’m not backing it if you’re riding Lobos

I'm down to my best fighting weight again. I'll boot it home for you !

[jonthehammer]

Cheers pal, that’s handy, much appreciated.

Had a little dabble myself

[charlie]

I have added Dickie Diver @ 33/1.

I want to get him onside before Henderson's RP stable tour next week.

JP likes having NHC runners and his current options listed in the market appear limited.

I think there is a talented horse in DD. He might not necessarily dine at the top table (which is the box NHC horses tick), but he is very good. His Albert Bartlett form looks rock solid and his run at Newbury last December when returning from a 655 day break was ridiculously good I thought. We're talking nearly 2 years off, and that performance was considered good enough to throw him in the proverbial deep end on just his second chase start. It didn't work out, but I don't think he lost too much in defeat.

Nicky - 'He is a seriously talented horse if we can keep him in one piece. He loves soft ground and stays really well, and we just have to hope we have a clear run with him'.

Nicky does worry me and I can't necessarily trust his decision making, but I remember reading in a book a few years ago (I think it may have been Mark Howard), that DD left the PTP scene in Ireland being compared to the likes of Best Mate, he was considered that good. Things haven't gone his way, but theres a proper lurker in there. Pedigree is mustard, owned by a man who loves NHC winners, cost 200k plus, Cheltenham Festival experience a big plus, he jumps well, wants to stay and stay, will be a second season chaser which ticks a lot of stats trends and I just think collectively, the price needs to be taken given his profile.

It's a risk though. I am extremely aware that Nicky doesn't tend to send too many down the NHC route, but when he does they go off bloody short! Beware The Bear 9/2 and OK Corral in more recent years. OK Corral went off 4/1 for a NHC having finished 2nd a previous year in an AB and I'm confident based on raw ability that DD would shit OK Corral out for breakfast.

I think DD will be Henderson's NHC horse and if he says as much on Tuesday 33 becomes 16, a win over 3m becomes single figures and the rest as they say, is history.

The rules state 'Horses must have run in at least two chases and must have finished in the first four in a chase staged over an extended two miles and seven and a half furlongs or further', so DD's RSA 4th means he must run in one chase this season over 2m7f or more to qualify for the race. I think thats right, but if I'm not please let me know.

[Imperial Commander]

I have added Dickie Diver @ 33/1.


The rules state 'Horses must have run in at least two chases and must have finished in the first four in a chase staged over an extended two miles and seven and a half furlongs or further', so DD's RSA 4th means he must run in one chase this season over 2m7f or more to qualify for the race. I think thats right, but if I'm not please let me know.

Charlie, Won't he already have qualified as he's run in 2 chases at Newbury & Cheltenham & finished 4th in the RSA so it's job done? That said, a bit more experience probably wouldn't go amiss, delicate legs permitting!

[Native River]

Charlie, Won't he already have qualified as he's run in 2 chases at Newbury & Cheltenham & finished 4th in the RSA so it's job done? That said, a bit more experience probably wouldn't go amiss, delicate legs permitting!

If I recall the rules correctly he will still need a run this year over 2m 7f and finish in the top 4 of it in order to qualify for this year's NHC

[charlie]

Charlie, Won't he already have qualified as he's run in 2 chases at Newbury & Cheltenham & finished 4th in the RSA so it's job done? That said, a bit more experience probably wouldn't go amiss, delicate legs permitting!

My understanding is horses have to run in two chases over 2m7f or more, and finish in the first 4 on both, AND, one of those must have been run in the current season. His run at Newbury was over 2m6f so it doesn't meet the 2m7f minimum, therefore his RSA run counts, but he'll need one more run. It gives Nicky flexibility.He might eye up something over 2m3f for example just as a pipe opener before ticking off qualifying. 2m6f not counting is interesting as it should tell us which trainers have this race in mind, particularly in Jan and Feb.