2022 National Hunt Novices Chase

[archie]

And it's a fact that Willie hasn't run a horse as old as eight in this race since 2013.

Rathvinden was 10 when he won in 2018.

[nortonscoin200]

Rathvinden was 10 when he won in 2018.

Apologies Archie, talking nonsense again on the age thing. don't know what happened there. Will correct it now.

[JackieMoon33]

I've got him on my 2 1/2 handicap hurdle watch list

He needs 4 1/2 not a step down in trip

[jono]

My view is that the profile of runner Mullins has for this race could well change and is likely to have changed going forward.

Back in Focus was a 150+ horse and won the race with just 3 starts in 2013.
But their record with this type has of horse (classy, close to or 150+ horse off the back of a few runs) since has not been good. And they've had some rotten luck.
Pont Alexandre was had 3 runs prior. Was fatally injured in the race in 2016.
Arbre de Vie had 3 runs prior. Unseated in 2017.
Ballyward had 2 runs prior and was fatally injured in 2019.
Carefully Selected had 3 runs prior in 2020. He was legless before unseating. And he was visibly distressed post race and hasn't been seen since.

It's notable that last season connections mentioned several times the importance of experience in this race.
So personally i'm not sure this type of horse will necessarily be what they go for. Which would potentially rule out most of their novice chasers, if they have not been out early.

It doesn't rule a horse out. Next Destination for example came 2nd last season off just 2 runs.

But the awful luck they've had in the race over the last few years, the shift in vibes given about the race since 2020 and the fact Rathvinden was their last winner who had built up so much experience. Will make them look at a different type of horse for the race.

Which they look to have in Ontheropes who looks an absolute stand out in so many ways.

All eyes will be on the entries for the October meeting and the 3 miles novice chase at Cheltenham.
If Run Wild Fred were to line up, and win he then has everything in his favour too.
If not I may well keep putting more on Ontheropes.

[Quevega]

jono Perfect post that sir. Been saying same for 18 months since I first mentioned on the ropes.
doubt any inexperienced novices from Willie will run.
but you never know

[ToniC]

The bosses oscar name checked for this race in the Elliott stable tour

[jono]

Elliott on The Bosses Oscar

He’s a lovely horse that we are looking forward to seeing how he gets on over fences. He made a good start over them at Listowel, he just needed the run and got tired. He could be a horse for the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

[FinalFurlong91]

Elliott on The Bosses Oscar

Insert Mr burns gif

[Atlantic Viking]

TBO cut from 25's into 16's with B365.

[Silverbirch]

No mention of RWF...... Hmmm

[Ray]

Im of the opinion now that maybe gars de sceaux will have more class then running here? My initial thoughts on him were the rsa and that stable tour would say that is accurate, i think hes a dark horse for sure

[Winging The Last]

Im of the opinion now that maybe gars de sceaux will have more class then running here? My initial thoughts on him were the rsa and that stable tour would say that is accurate, i think hes a dark horse for sure

I think we will get a big hint to who he thinks is is RSA horse next week when we see the the entries and decs for the beginners chase at Galway which Gordon likes to start his RSA horses in

[Lobos]

Im of the opinion now that maybe gars de sceaux will have more class then running here? My initial thoughts on him were the rsa and that stable tour would say that is accurate, i think hes a dark horse for sure

I'm with you on this one Ray. The quote does sway you that way.

[The King Pimm]

I can’t bring myself to TKP, was all over him for the potato race last season and he travelled like the winner to the last, didn’t look entirely in love with the hill for me.
Haven’t written him off and clearly there was a great deal of confidence in him that day but I’d need to see him go through with an effort or two before I part with any cash…

Stattler was one of my biggest novice bets last Festival, the hype and confidence in the build up I thought he was a certainty but I agree he just seemed to get lost up the hill. Bing a Mullins/Ronnie Bartlett combo I was expecting a lot of hype pre national hunt season but no ones mentioning him and he’s still favourite!!

[The King Pimm]

You make a good point TKP.

I nailed my colours to Run Wild Fred early on but have been wrestling with idea of also having a decent bet on Ontheropes despite having missed the early price.

The trouble is - what happens if Willie sends Stattler here which seems highly likely?

If that happens will Willie also run Ontheropes? I don't think so.

For the last 3 years Willie's only had one runner in the NHC.

Over the last 10 years he's only once saddled 2 of the market leaders in the race. That was back in 2012 when Allee Garde went off 6-1 second favourite and Soll was 8-1 joint fourth favourite.

Five of his 15 runners in the NHC over the last 10 years have had a starting price of 14-1 or bigger. I get the impression it's a race where Willie might run some of his slow boats to give them a speculative back-door route into the Cheltenham Festival - but without seriously thinking they will win it.

Either Ontheropes or Stattler could go off favourite if they line up but I can't see them taking each other on here.

And as Saxon Warrior points out in his Willie analysis, Stattler's hurdling profile - ran well in the AB and the season ending 3-mile novice hurdle at Punchestown - fits the bill perfectly for a Mullins NHC contender.

It's been discussed in these pages that Ontheropes does have other options - the Hennessy, Grand National, maybe even the Gold Cup although I can't quite see that happening. He may also be a bit fragile.

Whereas the NHC does seem to be the obvious career path for Stattler. Hurdles form suggests he could be plenty good enough for this.

So which one will Patrick be riding in March?

I reckon it's more likely to be Stattler who is in the same ownership as this year's winner Galvin. I imagine he'd be up for winning the same Festival race two years in aa row.

But having said all this I still can't escape the notion I should be backing Ontheropes.

I was fortunate to get Ontheropes covered before yesterday’s impressive seasonal debut. I had never noticed Willie Mullins trends of only having one runner in the Arkle & NHC until Saxon and yourself pointed it out. It’s bizarre considering the quality he has at his disposal but you’ve got to take it as a massive confidence whoever does end up representing the yard.