2022 National Hunt Novices Chase

[Stormez]

That was impressive! No way he comes here now I don’t think.

Disappointed in GDM, but willing to forgive first time out & hope he comes on for it.

[ComplyOrDie]

I think Capodanno shows too much speed for this race. He could easily end up in a Turners (Marsh) or Festival Novices Chase, IMO.

[Dandrew99]

I think Capodanno shows too much speed for this race. He could easily end up in a Turners (Marsh) or Festival Novices Chase, IMO.

Not sure about speed there, think he's just stayed on stronger than some very tired horses. Would say that GDM was actually going faster at the line. Can't see him in a Turners/Marsh at this stage

[That Horse]

Last 4 winners of NHC all won over 2m4f or thereabouts when starting that season - just something to bear in mind if people are on Capo at a bigger price and thinking about cashing out

[ComplyOrDie]

Not sure about speed there, think he's just stayed on stronger than some very tired horses. Would say that GDM was actually going faster at the line. Can't see him in a Turners/Marsh at this stage

Yeah, maybe I was being a little giddy mentioning the Marsh, but I'd have him in the Festival Novices Chase over the NHC every single day, after watching that performance.

[Dandrew99]

Yeah, maybe I was being a little giddy mentioning the Marsh, but I'd have him in the Festival Novices Chase over the NHC every single day, after watching that performance.

I suppose it depends how Willie's other big guns come out, would still say his stable tour hints that NHC can't be ruled out just yet. GDM will come on for the run I'm sure and we are yet to see GDC. Encouraging run from him for either target though!

[Eggs]

….re Capadanno, if the odds are anything to go by I’d say firms are generally favouring NHC over RSA. The 10-1 Hills TWAR isn’t too far off what some are offering for specific races (365 are 10-1 NHC, 12-1 RSA).

[FinalFurlong91]

Not sure about speed there, think he's just stayed on stronger than some very tired horses. Would say that GDM was actually going faster at the line. Can't see him in a Turners/Marsh at this stage

Personally I think that if he was a 3m6f plodder that mistake he made wouldve been race over

He had to really quicken up to get back into the race after coming to a virtual standstill

[Dandrew99]

Personally I think that if he was a 3m6f plodder that mistake he made wouldve been race over

He had to really quicken up to get back into the race after coming to a virtual standstill

Would also say that if the horses Infront weren't knackered then he would had no chance of getting into the race either, so maybe a bit of both.

Wouldn't have put Galvin down as a plodder either, plenty of form over the intermediate trip. I don't think you have to be a plodder to win the NHC.

[Ray]

I dont even think this race needs a plodder, they crawl along and then show some speed or at least they did this year! The slightly shorter trip now and they way the ground comes about in these times the race will start bringing more class

[FinalFurlong91]

I dont even think this race needs a plodder, they crawl along and then show some speed or at least they did this year! The slightly shorter trip now and they way the ground comes about in these times the race will start bringing more class

Had professional jockeys last year

The amateurs don't usually crawl around

[charlie]

I've added Bacardys @ 33/1 .

All eyes were on Bob in his beginners chase, but Bacardys finished a credible second having jumped well, albeit a bit left, which won't be an issue at Cheltenham.

Nineteen horses have won this aged 10 or older, and I doubt any will have more experience at Cheltenham.

Bacardys has run at 6 consecutive festivals which is fantastic experience in comparison to a lot of his market rivals. We know from past winners that experience around Cheltenham is invaluable in this race, and inexperience, especially for Irish fancied runners equals a quick trip to the favourites graveyard.

Their tactics at Cheltenham in the stayers are the same, time and time again. Hold him up, pass runners, and he always stays on up the hill. I think a non-championship race run at a more sedate pace could be exactly what Bacardys wants.

I don't really think there are many places for him to end up other than here. Willie has Stattler, Ontheropes and Capodanno as more obvious potential runners. IMO the latter showed too much speed last time out, Stattler could very well stay over 3m, and I don't think Willie would be opposed to sending two here.

Maybe a heart over head bet, but I think Bacardy's could creep in under the radar here.

[FinalFurlong91]

I've added Bacardys @ 33/1 .

All eyes were on Bob in his beginners chase, but Bacardys finished a credible second having jumped well, albeit a bit left, which won't be an issue at Cheltenham.

Nineteen horses have won this aged 10 or older, and I doubt any will have more experience at Cheltenham.

Bacardys has run at 6 consecutive festivals which is fantastic experience in comparison to a lot of his market rivals. We know from past winners that experience around Cheltenham is invaluable in this race, and inexperience, especially for Irish fancied runners equals a quick trip to the favourites graveyard.

Their tactics at Cheltenham in the stayers are the same, time and time again. Hold him up, pass runners, and he always stays on up the hill. I think a non-championship race run at a more sedate pace could be exactly what Bacardys wants.

I don't really think there are many places for him to end up other than here. Willie has Stattler, Ontheropes and Capodanno as more obvious potential runners. IMO the latter showed too much speed last time out, Stattler could very well stay over 3m, and I don't think Willie would be opposed to sending two here.

Maybe a heart over head bet, but I think Bacardy's could creep in under the radar here.

Backing bacardys should be a bannable offence

[charlie]

Backing Bacardy's should be a bannable offence

Ok, but only if waxing lyrical about Irish shorties with no Cheltenham experience becomes bannable too

The perception of what wins this vs what actually wins this remains one of Cheltenham's greatest misconceptions. Do you know which 'philosopher' said that?

[Fouroverthrutwo]

The perception of what wins this vs what actually wins this remains one of Cheltenham's greatest misconceptions. Do you know which 'philosopher' said that?

Mick Winters??