2022 National Hunt Novices Chase

[darlojim]

Does anyone know why Beacon Edge was a non-runner today?

Pulled because of the ground.

[Istabraq]

Setting TBO to one side, this, 100% this. Not aiming this at anyone in particular, but Galvin + his string of 1's + current standing as a GC contender = a recency bias with distorted views on what it takes to win this.

Fine line between recency bias and trends....

[charlie]

Fine line between recency bias and trends....

Thats exactly my point. People are, generally speaking, basing the credentials of what you need to win this on Galvin and not the typical, less classy animal that also wins this.

[Saxon Warrior]

This race has only recently changed from a Listed Race to a Grade 2, with big prize money increases.

At the same time reducing from 4M to 3M6F and having tighter controls on which Amateur riders qualify to ride in it.

There was a time it was closer to the quality of the Hunter Chase than the RSA.

Those times have changed.

Therefore the quality of horses running for half the prize money over 4M in a Listed race has probably been upgraded a bit now.

I wouldnt be backing anything in it that couldn't be a 150 rated horse, in their novice season, preferably before the race.

[Istabraq]

This race has only recently changed from a Listed Race to a Grade 2, with big prize money increases.

At the same time reducing from 4M to 3M6F and having tighter controls on which Amateur riders qualify to ride in it.

There was a time it was closer to the quality of the Hunter Chase than the RSA.

Those times have changed.

Therefore the quality of horses running for half the prize money over 4M in a Listed race has probably been upgraded a bit now.

I wouldnt be backing anything in it that couldn't be a 150 rated horse, in their novice season, preferably before the race.

Yep, I have mentioned this several times in the past and was about to wheel out that same record.
The quality of the race has certainly taken an upward curve since the upgrade, I doubt it will attract the likes of Tiger Roll, Native River and Minella Rocco every year but I can see it becoming a viable alternative to the shorter novice trips where, as you'd expect with G1 status, the best will target.
It makes a big difference if you know you can secure the services of a top amateur.
Time will tell...

[Hardy Eustace]

This race has only recently changed from a Listed Race to a Grade 2, with big prize money increases.

At the same time reducing from 4M to 3M6F and having tighter controls on which Amateur riders qualify to ride in it.

There was a time it was closer to the quality of the Hunter Chase than the RSA.

Those times have changed.

Therefore the quality of horses running for half the prize money over 4M in a Listed race has probably been upgraded a bit now.

I wouldnt be backing anything in it that couldn't be a 150 rated horse, in their novice season, preferably before the race.

All of this is true BUT since being upgraded to a Grade 2 horses like ravenhill, Le Breuil and Rathvinden have won it so its not always that high class a race.

I am really on the fence with TBO - I would have expected more but if he gets a 3 miles chase entry in the next 4-6 weeks (ideally at Cheltenham) I will be happy enough as they are clearly keeping him over fences for a reason - I just hope that reason is the NHC (which Gordon has name checked at least twice) and not the Irish National.

[Saxon Warrior]

All of this is true BUT since being upgraded to a Grade 2 horses like ravenhill, Le Breuil and Rathvinden have won it so its not always that high class a race.

I am really on the fence with TBO - I would have expected more but if he gets a 3 miles chase entry in the next 4-6 weeks (ideally at Cheltenham) I will be happy enough as they are clearly keeping him over fences for a reason - I just hope that reason is the NHC (which Gordon has name checked at least twice) and not the Irish National.

Agreed.

But it’s only the last 2 years since the rules on Amateurs have been tightened and the race distance has dropped to 3M6F from 4M.

My view is that trip change would interest more top trainers with several RSA candidates to consider it for some of those, whereas as 4M and with less refs on jockeys in it, it would have been less appealing.

The proof of course won’t be revealed for two or three seasons but my opinion is that it is going to take a horse running an OR of 150+ to win the race.

[nortonscoin200]

Setting TBO to one side, this, 100% this. Not aiming this at anyone in particular, but Galvin + his string of 1's + current standing as a GC contender = a recency bias with distorted views on what it takes to win this.

Love your posts Charlie but I can't really agree with you on this one.

It wasn't just Galvin this year - what about Next Destination (153) and Escaria Ten (147) who filled the places.

I don't think The Bosses Oscar would trouble any of those three over fences and there are enough horses at or near the time of the market this time to suggest the winner will have to be pretty classy.

Surely they wont all go for other targets.

Take your point about Ravenhill and Le Breuil but Rathvinden (150 at the time), Tiger Roll and Minella Rocco (2nd in following year's GC) were all a bit special.

So not convinced by the argument that Galvin was an exceptional winner and the standard is likely to be lower this time.

As a rough guide I reckon the winner will be a horse capable of winning the 2022 or 2023 Grand National.

And, for me, The Bosses Oscar comfortably fails the test.

[HoldenTheReins]

Cromwell on Vanillier "At the moment I think he'd be more suited by the National Hunt Chase as his Cheltenham target but Christmas should tell us a lot more."

Going to have to cover him because I think this is tailor made for him.

[charlie]

Love your posts Charlie but I can't really agree with you on this one.

It wasn't just Galvin this year - what about Next Destination (153) and Escaria Ten (147) who filled the places.

I don't think The Bosses Oscar would trouble any of those three over fences and there are enough horses at or near the time of the market this time to suggest the winner will have to be pretty classy.

Surely they wont all go for other targets.

Take your point about Ravenhill and Le Breuil but Rathvinden (150 at the time), Tiger Roll and Minella Rocco (2nd in following year's GC) were all a bit special.

So not convinced by the argument that Galvin was an exceptional winner and the standard is likely to be lower this time.

As a rough guide I reckon the winner will be a horse capable of winning the 2022 or 2023 Grand National.

And, for me, The Bosses Oscar comfortably fails the test.

I love opposing views and a healthy debate Norton! Lets do this.....

But you've named just last years horses.....for every Galvin there is a Le Breuil. For every Tiger Roll there is a Midnight Prayer.

Saxon makes a good point that the quality of winner is probably improving, but in the last 10 years winning marks include 142, 145, 143, 146, 139, 146.

This notion you have to be a 150+ horse to win this race just isn't true, although it obviously helps.

TBO looks fairly one paced to my eye. That might catch him out over 2m6f but another mile could be the making of him.

The market hasn't shortened or lengthened re todays run, which accurately sums up my views on today's events. Not bad, not good, just average.

[ToniC]

Cromwell on Vanillier "At the moment I think he'd be more suited by the National Hunt Chase as his Cheltenham target but Christmas should tell us a lot more."

Going to have to cover him because I think this is tailor made for him.

Where was this quote? Sure just the other day he said they were leaning RSA fucking trainers, gobshites the lot of them

[Dandrew99]

Maybe we should put robith 's confirmation bias to the test...

Is there anyone on here who hasn't backed TBO yet who thinks, based on the current evidence we have seen, that he is good enough to win this?

[Lobos]

Maybe we should put robith 's confirmation bias to the test...

Is there anyone on here who hasn't backed TBO yet who thinks, based on the current evidence we have seen, that he is good enough to win this?

Count me in, I've backed him TWAR, that counts yeah ? If he ended up one of Gordon's representatives, only a nutter wouldn't back him !

[Lbur4288]

Maybe we should put robith 's confirmation bias to the test...

Is there anyone on here who hasn't backed TBO yet who thinks, based on the current evidence we have seen, that he is good enough to win this?

Yes, I think it would be silly to rule out any of Gordon's current NHC market horses. I'm pretty confident that he's been looking after him, getting experience and gradually getting him fit. Yes there are others I like more (Capodanno is one I'm invested in) but I am happy enough to see TBO as a live bet still and although I have no plans to place any more on him I am equally happy to see there hasn't been too much of an overreaction so far. One more run over the 2m7f to get him in and then Gordon will definitely have him ready to have a good go at taking the pot.

[Odin]

Maybe we should put robith 's confirmation bias to the test...

Is there anyone on here who hasn't backed TBO yet who thinks, based on the current evidence we have seen, that he is good enough to win this?

I've backed him based on Elliott's stable tour comments (maybe I'm too trusting). Initially I couldn't see it because I was convinced Fred was coming here and he still might, but given all the noises it's a no brainer to have him on side. With regards the current evidence, the only thing I use for that is his 4th Martin Pipe and 2nd Pertemps, which are both good pieces of form. I'd say it's pretty obvious he's a handicap job right now (remember Irish horses get new handicap marks which are not based on their hurdles marks), so the current chasing evidence suggests that he isn't good enough, but I wouldn't expect it to. His festival form over hurdles for me suggests he'd have every chance though (if he's the chosen one), which as I said initially is a bit of a flip in mindset for me since I originally placed my 'saver' bets.