2022 Mares Hurdle

[Garrison Savannah]

TMSG - backing at 16s is throwing good money after bad IMO.

[Istabraq]

Given how unfit most of Henry's are first time up atm, probably best to reserve judgement until next time

I’ll accept that as a fair argument with 8/9yo chasers but I struggle to accept that with 5yo novice chasers and 6yo second season hurdlers.
Envoi came out and blew them away after injury and a spell on the slab, there’s no obvious reason why the likes of TMSG and Magic Daze should disappoint on reappearance for me…

[Lobos]

TMSG - backing at 16s is throwing good money after bad IMO.

Ouch, that hurt ! There's plenty doing it and not just on this Forum. It won't last the day.

[FinalFurlong91]

I’ll accept that as a fair argument with 8/9yo chasers but I struggle to accept that with 5yo novice chasers and 6yo second season hurdlers.
Envoi came out and blew them away after injury and a spell on the slab, there’s no obvious reason why the likes of TMSG and Magic Daze should disappoint on reappearance for me…

Envoi beat a 90 rated horse though haha (coko beach was ridden in a way that would guarantee he finished knowhere near envoi and not harm his mark)

at those weights TMSG was given a very very hard task on reappearance and was cruising before finding trouble

Be stupid to rule her out after one run

[charlie]

I’ll accept that as a fair argument with 8/9yo chasers but I struggle to accept that with 5yo novice chasers and 6yo second season hurdlers.
Envoi came out and blew them away after injury and a spell on the slab, there's no obvious reason why the likes of TMSG and Magic Daze should disappoint on reappearance for me…

The 'if horse X can run well on debut then why can't horse Y' argument is flawed. Horses are all different and come to themselves at different times. We have no idea when a horse starts back at serious work, how much training they take to get fit, how they summered, whether they are keen or lazy in their work at home....the list is endless, and can go all the way down to things like their diet. Physiologically, all these things matter, whether we want to acknowledge them as punters or not, so expecting all horses to be fit and ready first time up is just not realistic, and thats before factoring in the human side, like race instructions. TMSG looked enormous next to Honeysuckle in a picture that circulated at the end of October, and she looked big to my eye yesterday. HDB (IMO of course) is not going to tell RB to give TMSG a hard race for a 10 grand prize whilst giving lumps of weight away if she is not fully wound up. It would make zero sense.

[archie]

She was backed in to favouritism so it's unlikely that she had been left well short.

Royal Kahala was far more impressive and, at 20/1, represents a more enticing prospect as it stands.

[Lobos]

Absolutely Charlie. She was simply in that race as a stepping stone to March and not in it to win it. How they made her favourite is beyond me. She ran pretty much as connections expected imo. We will see a different horse/result next time.

[taylorch1990]

She was backed in to favouritism so it's unlikely that she had been left well short.

Royal Kahala was far more impressive and, at 20/1, represents a more enticing prospect as it stands.

Totally agree she'd have won if not for the mistake 3 out that knocked her back at a crucial time. I agree with most TMSG was disappointing jumped a bit slow at times. She seemed to start cutting through the field after 3 out alongside RK then by the time they'd turned into the straight TMSG was done and RK was challenging.

I wouldn't put people off backing TMSG at 16s now (I'd backed her at half that price) with her having festival form and the race looking wide open. The race seems to lack some class this year hopefully SWIW can be the star. If the market is still as open come February time a few trainers may be tempted to go at this with a novice similar to the Mares Chase.

[ComplyOrDie]

She was backed in to favouritism so it's unlikely that she had been left well short.

You don't think that was just punters latching onto the fact she was the Mares Novice Hurdle winner? Especially when Henry literally came out and said we will work back from the Mares Hurdle, you can't really believe he'd have her primed for a race where she had to give lumps away to most?

Royal Kahala was far more impressive and, at 20/1, represents a more enticing prospect as it stands.

I'd suggest Mr Peter Fahey had his good guns primed for the weekend, having ended it with two 2nds and a very impressive bumper winner, from 4 runners. The other runner fell, but was a 40/1 shot.

[Lobos]

You don't think that was just punters latching onto the fact she was the Mares Novice Hurdle winner? Especially when Henry literally came out and said we will work back from the Mares Hurdle, you can't really believe he'd have her primed for a race where she had to give lumps away to most?

100% this. Just nativity from clueless punters I'd say.

[archie]

I'd suggest Mr Peter Fahey had his good guns primed for the weekend, having ended it with two 2nds and a very impressive bumper winner, from 4 runners. The other runner fell, but was a 40/1 shot.

Wrong.

https://www.irishracing.com/news?headline=Fahey-pleased-with-Royal-Kahala%27s-comeback-run&prid=223180

[charlie]

She was backed in to favouritism so it's unlikely that she had been left well short.

Royal Kahala was far more impressive and, at 20/1, represents a more enticing prospect as it stands.

Smacks of punters latching on to HDB & RB. If she were well fancied by connections 6/1 would have been battered when priced up, or gone the night before / morning. She was 5/1 for ages then well backed late which was probably people just backing the MNH winner

[ComplyOrDie]

Wrong.

https://www.irishracing.com/news?headline=Fahey-pleased-with-Royal-Kahala%27s-comeback-run&prid=223180

Which bit? Because he was certainly in form.

[archie]

Which bit? Because he was certainly in form.

The bit about Royal Kahala being primed.

[Istabraq]

The 'if horse X can run well on debut then why can't horse Y' argument is flawed. Horses are all different and come to themselves at different times

I agree, generalising usually is flawed, but the suggestion was that Henrys horses have needed a run so the generalising was put out there previously….