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She was backed in to favouritism so it's unlikely that she had been left well short.
This is what concerned me most about her performance.
I looked on Sat evening and she was 9/2, so when she backed into 3/1 or whatever her SP was it suggested connections were very pleased with her…
Totally agree she'd have won if not for the mistake 3 out that knocked her back at a crucial time. I agree with most TMSG was disappointing jumped a bit slow at times. She seemed to start cutting through the field after 3 out alongside RK then by the time they'd turned into the straight TMSG was done and RK was challenging.
I wouldn't put people off backing TMSG at 16s now (I'd backed her at half that price) with her having festival formand the race looking wide open. The race seems to lack some class this year hopefully SWIW can be the star. If the market is still as open come February time a few trainers may be tempted to go at this with a novice similar to the Mares Chase.
Time and time again this pointwe all come back to, not only that - she's got winning Festival form too.
You don't think that was just punters latching onto the fact she was the Mares Novice Hurdle winner? Especially when Henry literally came out and said we will work back from the Mares Hurdle, you can't really believe he'd have her primed for a race where she had to give lumps away to most?
100% this. Just nativity from clueless punters I'd say.
Just sticking up for anyone that did back her the other day.
But this is a little bit unfair and after the fact.
Especially from someone who has backed her in multiple multiples at 8-1. !!
I did too by the way but only one bet, and that was to get Kilcruit at 8-1 with something that was guaranteed to run on the tuesday.
She is a horse that did not look like she would be setting the world alight all season like PTKO, So 8-1 was always too short for me.
Having said that, there is always a risk they do.
And the SP for both these mares won't be far away (probably)
Just sticking up for anyone that did back her the other day.
But this is a little bit unfair and after the fact.
Especially from someone who has backed her in multiple multiples at 8-1. !!
I did too by the way but only one bet, and that was to get Kilcruit at 8-1 with something that was guaranteed to run on the tuesday.
She is a horse that did not look like she would be setting the world alight all season like PTKO, So 8-1 was always too short for me.
Having said that, there is always a risk they do.
And the SP for both these mares won't be far away (probably)
Backed her at 8/1 as very wary that bookies might react to Black Tears retiring and news Concertista going chasing as that would have made her fav in my book. Didn't happen though and wrong move from me. Stand by my views on yesterday though. Unless she was an absolute star she was never going to win that first time up on those terms.
Backed her at 8/1 as very wary that bookies might react to Black Tears retiring and news Concertista going chasing as that would have made her fav in my book. Didn't happen though and wrong move from me. Stand by my views on yesterday though. Unless she was an absolute star she was never going to win that first time up on those terms.
Yep, not the best bit of placing from Henry for anyone who backed her at 8-1 antepost.
But he's not going to be bothered by that I'm sure.
And this race does lack quality at the moment.
I think the same applies to the Hatton's Grace as last years renewal was shite, and she scraped home.
After that race, the Champion hurdle looked a mile off.
A defeat this year should not affect her odds IMO, but it will do, a little bit.
Just need Willie to throw some at her.
For those that haven't backed her yet of course.
I think they might duck it if it looks too hot, I know that sounds daft as she's the best, I just think they might.
I do hope she runs and wins. None of us want these undefeated stars to get beat but it's a game riddled with dangers. I was actually even more certain she'd go Champion Hurdle after last year's HG as she showed electric change of gear off a slow pace only to tire close home. Funny how people read things differently. A bit like TTL at the weekend.
Just sticking up for anyone that did back her the other day.
But this is a little bit unfair and after the fact.
Good point well made.
This place is, thankfully, devoid of personal attacks and criticism so the original comment about punter naivety/nativity was offside, albeit I'm sure without any malicious intent.
Overall it's been a good discussion re TMSG, I've seen/read nothing to give me any more confidence than I had after yesterdays race and I have the mare in a fair few multis, but if she comes on as much as Magic Daze did from reappearance to second outing then I'll be pleased...
Last edited by Istabraq; 15 November 2021, 05:00 PM.
You don't think that was just punters latching onto the fact she was the Mares Novice Hurdle winner? Especially when Henry literally came out and said we will work back from the Mares Hurdle, you can't really believe he'd have her primed for a race where she had to give lumps away to most?
100% this. Just nativity from clueless punters I'd say.
Heaven Help Us is probably the wrong price at 33/1. 2/3 at Cheltenham and a C&D festival winner. Lots ahead of her in the market that won't go, and we know she doesn't see out 3m and isn't really quick enough for 2. She feels a bit like deja vu with Black Tears, very similar campaigns. Black Tears had a MNH winner back in third (Concertista) when winning that Leopardstown handicap before finishing second in the Coral Cup running to an RPR of 147. Black Tears then ran in the same race as yesterday, before eventually going on to win the mares hurdle. Heaven Help Us won the same handicap at Leopardstown with MNH winner also back in third (TMSG), then went on to win the Coral Cup running to an RPR of 149. She also ran in the same debut yesterday. Not saying the stars will align in the same way, just thinking she could turn out to be a lurker at a price.
Heaven Help Us is probably the wrong price at 33/1. 2/3 at Cheltenham and a C&D festival winner. Lots ahead of her in the market that won't go, and we know she doesn't see out 3m and isn't really quick enough for 2. She feels a bit like deja vu with Black Tears, very similar campaigns. Black Tears had a MNH winner back in third (Concertista) when winning that Leopardstown handicap before finishing second in the Coral Cup running to an RPR of 147. Black Tears then ran in the same race as yesterday, before eventually going on to win the mares hurdle. Heaven Help Us won the same handicap at Leopardstown with MNH winner also back in third (TMSG), then went on to win the Coral Cup running to an RPR of 149. She also ran in the same debut yesterday. Not saying the stars will align in the same way, just thinking she could turn out to be a lurker at a price.
Like that angle.
As ever with a horse from a smaller yard, no need to really rush into it ante post.
Always the chance they fancy a Coral Cup repeat as well.... as the two runs since would help that cause?
Someone made a strong case for Heaven Help Us in this a while back, I’m sure it was a Spectre or Saxon Warrior.
I have no doubts she’d see out 3m so would be a live Pertemps horse should they take that route, 33s looks OK but she’s one with a few possible targets so a small any race cover might be a sensible play….
Heaven Help Us is probably the wrong price at 33/1. 2/3 at Cheltenham and a C&D festival winner. Lots ahead of her in the market that won't go, and we know she doesn't see out 3m and isn't really quick enough for 2. She feels a bit like deja vu with Black Tears, very similar campaigns. Black Tears had a MNH winner back in third (Concertista) when winning that Leopardstown handicap before finishing second in the Coral Cup running to an RPR of 147. Black Tears then ran in the same race as yesterday, before eventually going on to win the mares hurdle. Heaven Help Us won the same handicap at Leopardstown with MNH winner also back in third (TMSG), then went on to win the Coral Cup running to an RPR of 149. She also ran in the same debut yesterday. Not saying the stars will align in the same way, just thinking she could turn out to be a lurker at a price.
The Black Tears comparison is fair to a point.
Both horses look like they will, for whatever reasons (preparation or being held back), not run their best race till the festival or in this case the massively valuable mares handicap at Dublin and also the festival.
The big difference for me when comparing Black Tears chances last season vs Heaven Help Us, is the weight they were carrying in the Coral Cup.
Running off 144 (11st 2lb) with no mares allowance was enough to tell me that Black Tears was not as far behind Concertista as the odds and prep races suggested.
Running off 131 with jockeys claim off (10st 2lb) suggests to me Heaven Help us has to improve a fair bit.
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glad you spotted it and not Q !
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