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Listening to Hendo gush about one of his horses is pretty low on my list of tools I use however I do like her.
I'm overly invested in Tommy's Oscar - I would like him to be the best of the British!
He could be, has improved with every run this season. His last run he beat global citizen 5 lengths off level weights, probably value for a few more lengths but global citizen did set a strong pace with Navajo pass yet still kept on to finish his race.
I think if you like Tommy's Oscar, and rate him highly enough to back him to be best of the British in the champion hurdle, you should get on Global citizen @ 40/1 County hurdle NRNB bet 365.
Know lot of people now against Epatante....but do think we need to br careful not to write her off too quickly
In last 2 years, she has run to her best RPRs in CH....both times 5 pounds higher than previous runs.....and Hendo can def ready one for festival
Clearly Honey wins if she is any sort of reasonable form.....but her ratings are down this year.....and whether you want one to oppose her, or in w/o market, question is who?
If Appreciate it and Epatante both run to what they did at festival last year, then both are 165 (with allowance)....and nothing else in the race has run anywhere near that (all high 150s at best...that won't win even a poor CH)
The stats are past champions are good (tho admittedly more year after)......but Epatante was off last year and reasonable to assume at 8, she could still run a big race
Recent form boosted by Glory and Fortune run
If still 8-1 when go EW quarter odds, then that's pretty decent value....and also a horse for Tricasts, etc
Know lot of people now against Epatante....but do think we need to br careful not to write her off too quickly
In last 2 years, she has run to her best RPRs in CH....both times 5 pounds higher than previous runs.....and Hendo can def ready one for festival
Clearly Honey wins if she is any sort of reasonable form.....but her ratings are down this year.....and whether you want one to oppose her, or in w/o market, question is who?
If Appreciate it and Epatante both run to what they did at festival last year, then both are 165 (with allowance)....and nothing else in the race has run anywhere near that (all high 150s at best...that won't win even a poor CH)
The stats are past champions are good (tho admittedly more year after)......but Epatante was off last year and reasonable to assume at 8, she could still run a big race
Recent form boosted by Glory and Fortune run
If still 8-1 when go EW quarter odds, then that's pretty decent value....and also a horse for Tricasts, etc
She's 5/4 W/O the Irish and thats a brilliant bet IMO when I look at whats quoted in behind.
She's 5/4 W/O the Irish and thats a brilliant bet IMO when I look at whats quoted in behind.
The worry I always have with this type of bet is that she'll be ridden to try and win the race, which could make her vulnerable to something picking her off up the hill. How many times do we see something run on through beaten horses and into the prize money.
Know lot of people now against Epatante....but do think we need to br careful not to write her off too quickly
In last 2 years, she has run to her best RPRs in CH....both times 5 pounds higher than previous runs.....and Hendo can def ready one for festival
Clearly Honey wins if she is any sort of reasonable form.....but her ratings are down this year.....and whether you want one to oppose her, or in w/o market, question is who?
If Appreciate it and Epatante both run to what they did at festival last year, then both are 165 (with allowance)....and nothing else in the race has run anywhere near that (all high 150s at best...that won't win even a poor CH)
The stats are past champions are good (tho admittedly more year after)......but Epatante was off last year and reasonable to assume at 8, she could still run a big race
Recent form boosted by Glory and Fortune run
If still 8-1 when go EW quarter odds, then that's pretty decent value....and also a horse for Tricasts, etc
Am completely with you TR. She looked back to her best in the Xmas hurdle and that form got a boost last weekend when the second won the betfair.
I think she’s nailed on to finish second.
Zan looks a little weak to me on the exchanges and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he waited for the aintree hurdle.
I’m not sure tommys oscar is all that.
We’ll learn more about quil and teahupoo at the weekend but there both going to have to massively improve to reach epatante’s level.
The worry I always have with this type of bet is that she'll be ridden to try and win the race, which could make her vulnerable to something picking her off up the hill. How many times do we see something run on through beaten horses and into the prize money.
I don't think we have anything trained here thats capable of picking Epatante off up the hill. Nothing British trained has beaten her in the last two Champion Hurdles and this years crop are worse IMO. A race fit Not So Sleepy gave Epatante a scare but Epatante battered him after blowing away the cobwebs. He's 10 now and just doesn't stand a hope in hell. On all known form Epatante holds Monmiral, Glory And Fortune and Tritonic (not just a little bit, but comfortably). Adagio is a relatively inexperienced 5 year old who I actually think will beat Goshen today (who won't go here), but if he doesn't his hope of beating Epatante is next to none. I don't think he's capable of running anywhere near 160's level which is what he'll have to do to beat Epatante given her mares allowance. Tommy's Oscar also stands next to no hope of giving Epatante 7lbs IMO. All very well doing your improving up in Scotland racing a load of 130's animals in 7/8/9 runner affairs, but this will be a totally different ball game and the elephant in the room for all these horses (barring Not So Sleepy) is they won't have encountered anything like the Champion Hurdle before, and that in itself is a massive plus for Epatante, as is the fact she tends to reserve her best performances for Cheltenham. These two factors + the mares allowance make her a 1/2 shot W/O the Irish IMO, and I wouldn't even be surprised with 1/3. She's brilliant value at 5/4, especially for those day 1 roll ups, and its not like she's 9 or 10 years old either, she's 8 and I think will finish 3rd/4th/5th behind Irish runners.
If still 8-1 when go EW quarter odds, then that's pretty decent value....and also a horse for Tricasts, etc
Where are you expecting to get 8/1 a quarter bud? It’s not a hcap so will be 1/5 everywhere if 8+ runners. If less than 7 then you’ll get quarter 1-2 or maybe 123 in the Bet 365 ew extra market but she’ll be no price if that field size.
I personally hate the way you get extra place here or there but almost every market inc hcaps are now 1/5 odds. 365 used to be great in the ew extra market quarter odds down to 9th-10th in big field hcaps but they scrapped that this year sadly.
I’ve never really taken to Epatante but she’s one I’ve latched onto this year with Honey being so short but not quite as electric. The way I’ve played her is:
Outright 9/1 NRNB 3pts ew 1/5 1-3
W/O Honey 7/2 NRNB (Hills) 10pts ew 1/5 1-3
She’s into 3/1 in that w/o market now but still think that’s a fair old scummy ew bet!
I’d also support in the w/o Irish market heavily at 5/4 but I can’t get a bet on with Skybet - that’s a stand out price like Charlie says. Remember she’s getting 7lb from the rest of the field bar Honey & her prep is miles better this year!
Where are you expecting to get 8/1 a quarter bud? It’s not a hcap so will be 1/5 everywhere if 8+ runners. If less than 7 then you’ll get quarter 1-2 or maybe 123 in the Bet 365 ew extra market but she’ll be no price if that field size.
I personally hate the way you get extra place here or there but almost every market inc hcaps are now 1/5 odds. 365 used to be great in the ew extra market quarter odds down to 9th-10th in big field hcaps but they scrapped that this year sadly.
I’ve never really taken to Epatante but she’s one I’ve latched onto this year with Honey being so short but not quite as electric. The way I’ve played her is:
Outright 9/1 NRNB 3pts ew 1/5 1-3
W/O Honey 7/2 NRNB (Hills) 10pts ew 1/5 1-3
She’s into 3/1 in that w/o market now but still think that’s a fair old scummy ew bet!
I’d also support in the w/o Irish market heavily at 5/4 but I can’t get a bet on with Skybet - that’s a stand out price like Charlie says. Remember she’s getting 7lb from the rest of the field bar Honey & her prep is miles better this year!
Usually quarter odds at festival I think…..not a big EW player, but for those that are Ep looks value
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- I would like him to be the best of the British!
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