2022 Champion Hurdle

[Olliemagern]

thoughts on Tommy Oscar for this. he was 5 secs quicker than jonbon today and still 40s with unibet. in a race with little depth behind the fav I think its the sort of profile that could outrun odds

Was 7lbs less than Jonbon mind not that I have any idea what the calculations are for that sort of stuff

[ToniC]

Was 7lbs less than Jonbon mind not that I have any idea what the calculations are for that sort of stuff

Rough rule of thumb… 1lb = 1length
1 second = 5 lengths on quick ground, 4 lengths on slower ground

[fatherjohn]

Was 7lbs less than Jonbon mind not that I have any idea what the calculations are for that sort of stuff

yep I was trying to work out the same thing...but couldn't so just said he was quicker and left it at that

[Craigy14]

Both races were run completely differently so I wouldn’t look at comparing the 2.

McCains horse went off like a loony, 11/12 second furlongs was a crazy speed, was never going to keep the gallop going.

[Frankely My Dear]

Can anyone reassure me that Appreciate It isn't a genuine threat in this please? Honeysuckle is a staple in many multiples and I'm getting a tad nervy seeing AI sitting there, threateningly

[Craigy14]

Both races were run completely differently so I wouldn’t look at comparing the 2.

McCains horse went off like a loony, 11/12 second furlongs was a crazy speed, was never going to keep the gallop going.

Just a note on this from the weekend, the timings were wrong, was only 2 seconds quicker. Think that shows the Jonbon race was a decent end to end gallop considering how quick Navajo went off.

[MadeinJapan]

Can anyone reassure me that Appreciate It isn't a genuine threat in this please? Honeysuckle is a staple in many multiples and I'm getting a tad nervy seeing AI sitting there, threateningly

It's that time of year when the nerves start kicking in isn't it! IMO simple answer No:

- He's got to give Honeysuckle 7lbs. I don't think any horse in the race can give her 7lbs and finish ahead of her.
- He's not exactly had the ideal of preps for a CH has he? Not run since the Supreme & an aborted chase career this season from a setback.
- On Official ratings he's 5 behind her (160 vs 165) - add in the weight allowance and that's still a fair amount to find

The only way I see him finishing ahead of her in March (or anything else ahead of her that is) is if she runs a stinker & throws her toys out of the pram which is going to happen at one stage unless they retire her unbeaten... or she falls.

I'm the same as you & like many on here too have her in several multiples. The only way to play the CH market for me now is in the w/o her market probably on the day, if Appreciate It turns up you could cover him there, although I think Zanahiyr is a lively bet there at 15/2 vs Appreciate it 7/2, horse has been improving with every run...

[TigerRolllllll]

Can anyone reassure me that Appreciate It isn't a genuine threat in this please? Honeysuckle is a staple in many multiples and I'm getting a tad nervy seeing AI sitting there, threateningly

I think the bigger risk at the moment is the stable form

In theory if they both run to their best RPRs, then Honey has about her allowance in hand....ie they have run to similar levels.....That should be enough

Though whether either runs right to their best is a not certain, given AI has has a poor prep....and Henry's horses not great at mo

Maybe take a price on AI to win Irish and CH in specials, or back AI on exchange (still good price).....and get a bit of cover.

Don't think anything else is likely to beat Honey, unless she runs a terrible race

[Frankely My Dear]

I think the bigger risk at the moment is the stable form

In theory if they both run to their best RPRs, then Honey has about her allowance in hand....ie they have run to similar levels.....That should be enough

Though whether either runs right to their best is a not certain, given AI has has a poor prep....and Henry's horses not great at mo

Maybe take a price on AI to win Irish and CH in specials, or back AI on exchange (still good price).....and get a bit of cover.

Don't think anything else is likely to beat Honey, unless she runs a terrible race

Yeah I guess AI's prep counts against so that's some confidence. I'd be surprised if Honeysuckle reflected the overall form but never say never. Zanahiyr might improve past Sharjah's level based on their last 2 battles and his age but can't see anything else good enough either. I don't use the exchange (I'm a luddite in that respect) but might do a cover multiple with AI.

Cheers TR

[charlie]

I've added Epatante in the W/O Irish market @ 2/1. She's probably not what she was, but I still think she retains enough ability and with the mares allowance and experience, she should better Adagio and Tommy's Oscar. I don't see any other threats tbh. She went off 2/1 to win the race 2 years ago and 4/1 last year. 2/1 W/O the Irish means should could effectively finish behind Honey, Appreciate It, Sharjah, Quilixious and Saint Roi down in 6th place and you'd still collect. I expected her to be about even money so 2/1 feels like there is a bit of juice in it. If like me you think GDC is a certainty at the DRF now there is no BO, you can double her with him and that pays 7/2 which I've taken.

[SharpHat]

I really think zanahiyr is underestimated for this, improving every run, it's not unreasonable to think he will improve past sharjah come March and that puts him right in the mix. Honeysuckle still vastly most likely winner but I could see him causing an upset

[TigerRolllllll]

Yeah I guess AI's prep counts against so that's some confidence. I'd be surprised if Honeysuckle reflected the overall form but never say never. Zanahiyr might improve past Sharjah's level based on their last 2 battles and his age but can't see anything else good enough either. I don't use the exchange (I'm a luddite in that respect) but might do a cover multiple with AI.

Cheers TR

Might be worth doing for festival......BF exchange offer in weeks before gives you 30 this year of free festival bets, if bet each week leading up. They did same last year, but think was 50

[Lobos]

Can't argue with any of that Charlie. Epatante looks a certainty to be best of the English doesn't she. Personally think she'll finished 2nd.

[Middle_Of_March]

I've added Epatante in the W/O Irish market @ 2/1. She's probably not what she was, but I still think she retains enough ability and with the mares allowance and experience, she should better Adagio and Tommy's Oscar. I don't see any other threats tbh. She went off 2/1 to win the race 2 years ago and 4/1 last year. 2/1 W/O the Irish means should could effectively finish behind Honey, Appreciate It, Sharjah, Quilixious and Saint Roi down in 6th place and you'd still collect. I expected her to be about even money so 2/1 feels like there is a bit of juice in it. If like me you think GDC is a certainty at the DRF now there is no BO, you can double her with him and that pays 7/2 which I've taken.

I like the sound of that double.. a lot

[fatherjohn]

I've added Epatante in the W/O Irish market @ 2/1. She's probably not what she was, but I still think she retains enough ability and with the mares allowance and experience, she should better Adagio and Tommy's Oscar. I don't see any other threats tbh. She went off 2/1 to win the race 2 years ago and 4/1 last year. 2/1 W/O the Irish means should could effectively finish behind Honey, Appreciate It, Sharjah, Quilixious and Saint Roi down in 6th place and you'd still collect. I expected her to be about even money so 2/1 feels like there is a bit of juice in it. If like me you think GDC is a certainty at the DRF now there is no BO, you can double her with him and that pays 7/2 which I've taken.

I like both of the without markets you've suggested...put epatante for this and champ for stayers s doubles