2022 Arkle

[Irish Rugby]

Moby123, many thanks. That's what I was getting at. At this point prior to the Festival, you get many more casual punters turning up, with limited knowledge of the season so far, and the head of the market horses in many races are just too short for them. Taking the Arkle specifically, a view develops because of Ferny Hollow and Appreciate It not being here, that the likes of Edwardsone and Blue Lord and Riviere Detel can all be taken on with, though they come to the race with the best form. Magic Daze fits the profile of all else being currently quoted.

[charlie]

When I see Duc Des Genievres and Put The Kettle On have won two of the last three Arkles, I think anything is possible. And before people give out about Put The Kettle On, before she ran in the Arkle, her best form was beating Al Dancer () and not even by that far. I'd have Magic Daze's defeat by Concertista as better form than that. Concertista would beat Al Dancer, IMO.

Magic Daze has only had three chase runs, and her form for her defeat by Noble Yeats has been held up fairly well, by the 2nd that day, Gabynako, who went and won next time out and then finished a close up 2nd in the G1 Drinmore Novices Chase. I wouldn't judge the form based on Noble Yeats, as he's been messed around all season, in order to get a favourable handicap mark.

She couldn't have done anything more on her second start, yes she only beat Darren's Hope, but it was by 25 lengths Her last run against Concertista, I'm not convinced she gave her true running. She was only 6 lengths ahead of Sayce Gold that day, and she had previously beat her a little over 26 lengths. Concertista then come out and only beat Darren's Hope by 6 lengths.

She also, obviously, has festival place form too, albeit on the different course.

I'm not saying she'll win the race, not at all, but I struggle to see how a case can't be made for her as an E/W bet.

For all those two were 'shocks', DDG ran to an RPR of 149 on debut and then 164 prior to winning the Arkle. Magic Daze has never run to an RPR higher than 137. PTKO had form of 1121 over fences, inc a C&D win and a RPR of 148. Both had set a much higher bar and whilst I have no doubt MD will improve, she'll have to improve a colossal amount to feature here. I don't think there can be any excuses for the Concertista loss either. She's gone from the front and had it all her own way just like she likes and been picked off. Same happened on debut. Much much better horses will be waiting in the wings to pick her off next week if she try's to front run, and if thats the approach they take I doubt she'll finish, much less place. I also don't like that she's by Doyen who's decent progeny drip in stamina, not speed. 3m PTP winners do win Arkles but they tend not to and I think her ability is well advertised as significantly below standard and when you couple in tactical issues of trying to front run, I think she's actually a brilliant place lay tbh

[ComplyOrDie]

For all those two were 'shocks', DDG ran to an RPR of 149 on debut and then 164 prior to winning the Arkle. Magic Daze has never run to an RPR higher than 137. PTKO had form of 1121 over fences, inc a C&D win and a RPR of 148. Both had set a much higher bar and whilst I have no doubt MD will improve, she'll have to improve a colossal amount to feature here. I don't think there can be any excuses for the Concertista loss either. She's gone from the front and had it all her own way just like she likes and been picked off. Same happened on debut. Much much better horses will be waiting in the wings to pick her off next week if she try's to front run, and if thats the approach they take I doubt she'll finish, much less place. I also don't like that she's by Doyen who's decent progeny drip in stamina, not speed. 3m PTP winners do win Arkles but they tend not to and I think her ability is well advertised as significantly below standard and when you couple in tactical issues of trying to front run, I think she's actually a brilliant place lay tbh

So basically she can't run well in an Arkle because of her RPR's to date?

The higher bar you speak of is beating Al Dancer, he's average.

Put The Kettle On went from running an RPR of 115 over fences to eventually getting to 148 prior to her Arkle run. She went 115 - 131 - 137 - 124 - 146 - 148, so she actually only recorded a fairly high RPR on her 5th start over fences, she was absolutely bang on what Magic Daze has run to (137) at this stage of her chasing career though. Put The Kettle On improved, Magic Daze can improve. It's quite simple, IMHO.

I'm not a massive Doyen fan myself either, but that wouldn't put me off backing a horse at an E/W price.

[Rooster Booster]

Moby123, many thanks. That's what I was getting at. At this point prior to the Festival, you get many more casual punters turning up, with limited knowledge of the season so far, and the head of the market horses in many races are just too short for them. Taking the Arkle specifically, a view develops because of Ferny Hollow and Appreciate It not being here, that the likes of Edwardsone and Blue Lord and aspiring to improve as a punter Detel can all be taken on with, though they come to the race with the best form. Magic Daze fits the profile of all else being currently quoted.

Ok that reads differently and I appreciate the explanation. I guess for me racing needs those folks every bit as much as the obsessive like us that are on here morning noon and night. I imagine it can be quite intimidating for people that are trying to become more knowledgeable to find their voice when those with the knowledge seem to question their decisions or strategy. We were all there once I guess. I wouldn’t want lurkers out there to think we don’t understand what it is like to be a casual punter aspiring to improve their punting, we all do understand that and there are many incredible members on here that will help you with anything you need.

[archie]

What do we reckon the market will be at the SP for this?

I think there’s not a hope in hell BL doesn’t go off fav. The Irish on course will steam into him and I reckon he goes off sub 2/1. And I expect Edwardstone to drift like a barge.

For arguments sake, let’s assume good to soft. At a guess:

15/8 Blue Lord
4/1 Edwardstone
9/2 Haut En Couleurs
13/2 Rivere Detel
9/1 Saint Sam
10/1 Bar

I'd imagine that bookies will go 100% on the first 5 in the betting and look to have the outsiders on their side.

Their are enough people who believe, incorrectly in my view, that Riviere D'Etel can be called the moral winner of the Irish Arkle to make sure that she is shorter than 13/2. I thought that Blue Lord was inconvenienced/distracted by RD'Es poor jump so he's my choice for the race. If I can get 3/1 on the day, I'll be more than happy but I'd see the market as:
5/2 Edwardstone
5/2 Blue Lord
5/1 Riviere D'Etel
6/1 Haut En Couleurs
8/1 Saint Sam
12/1 Bar

[charlie]

So basically she can't run well in an Arkle because of her RPR's to date?

The higher bar you speak of is beating Al Dancer, he's average.

Put The Kettle On went from running an RPR of 115 over fences to eventually getting to 148 prior to her Arkle run. She went 115 - 131 - 137 - 124 - 146 - 148, so she actually only recorded a fairly high RPR on her 5th start over fences, she was absolutely bang on what Magic Daze has run to (137) at this stage of her chasing career though. Put The Kettle On improved, Magic Daze can improve. It's quite simple, IMHO.

I'm not a massive Doyen fan myself either, but that wouldn't put me off backing a horse at an E/W price.

She could very well run well in Arkle, I'm saying she has it all to do on ratings. 4 horses out of 80+ have run in an Arkle having not broken out of 130's RPR's, which speaks for itself, and they finished PU, 3rd, 8th and UR, so maybe she'll nab a place but I certainly don't see it. If she were trained by Amy Murphy and not HDB she'd be 50/1 IMO.

[Atlantic Viking]

Brave Seasca coming here.

[FinalFurlong91]

If for pleasure runs him and magic daze are both going to set a scorching pace

Itll be a spectacle

Itll set the race up perfectly for edwardstone and blue lord

If blue lord jumps like he did at leopardstown he won't win but you'd hope he's learnt a good bit from what was essentially his first actual race over fences. His first two starts were glorified schooling sessions.

[JamieSensible]

In my opinion this race is a straight toss up between Blue Lord and Haut en couleurs. Remember this is champions day, the best horses tend to win.
Blue Lord Win and HEC each way.

[Kevloaf]

Brave Seasca coming here.

Oh good. My 14/1 bet is live

[ToniC]

Henry leaning toward this with coeur Sublime

[Hurricane fly]

Henry leaning toward this with coeur Sublime

Was a Jamie Codd pick at a recent preview too

[Splinterboy82]

Henry leaning toward this with coeur Sublime

Welcome news for me that. I think a lot of trainers are coming down on the side of this being an open Arkle and having a go - could be a few extra places on final dec markets…

[Benjy23]

Gonna be a huge field at this rate! Glad I avoided the e/w plays.

[ToniC]

Barry Geraghty reports he watched saint Sam & hec school in Navan and saint Sam was the pick of the two he says on jumping, hec put in 1 or 2 sketchy jumps apparently - off the fence preview