2022 Arkle

[The King Pimm]

It’s interesting reading the first post on this thread from Lobos back in October about Magic Daze. I thought she wouldn’t be entered but she is and could be a very live outsider given the horses in front have not set that high a standard nor are that experienced. Henry’s form is still very Leeds at present but if his focus is on Cheltenham now horses like Magic Daze could be a lively outsider. It’s a average Arkle on paper, Blue Lord jumps well and travels well but I think will tire up the hill and RIvere similar. Edwardstone will wait and try to pounce but Magic Daze could be too far in front by that stage and could just win by a short distance.

[Istabraq]

I’m also in the HEC camp, was also considering Saint Sam as an alternative to the shorter priced horses in the market.

I feel in that chase debut there some elements of the run that could have be improved over time and that he wasn’t all out in that race. The rating of this race was strong and not far off what’s been achieved by the shorter priced horses.

The late effort in the Triumph was pretty impressive too last year, and potentially this race may have quite a lot of early pace which could help HEC’s claims.

Yep, can’t disagree.
I think you have to forgive any novice chaser errors/apprehension on debut, the problem with HEC is that we’ve only seen him jump 2 fences since.
I’m sure Mullins would have done endless work on his jumping assuming he’s on the boat though the lack of mentions in stable tours might suggest he’s being saved for later targets, which for me would be a shame as this race is right there for the taking…

[doctorwu]

14 of the last 15 winners had previously raced at Cheltenham

Seven of the last ten favourites have won. All at odds on

No winner coming off the back of a fall since Moscow Flyer '02

Last twelve winners won last time out.

13 of last 15 were rated 142+ over hurdles.

This century only 2 winners had fallen this season.

15 from the last 17 had three or four chase runs, the other two were unbeaten.

All winners this century had already won a race with today's jockey

Not looking good for HEC

[Benjy23]

That last stat makes me think if Townend would actually switch... I can't see why he would but I also can't see why Mullins 5 year olds are as close as they are to Blue Lord in the market.

I've posted before that I think HEC could be a dangerous one but I still think he's under priced tbh.

[Craigy14]

That last stat makes me think if Townend would actually switch... I can't see why he would but I also can't see why Mullins 5 year olds are as close as they are to Blue Lord in the market.

I've posted before that I think HEC could be a dangerous one but I still think he's under priced tbh.

He’s massively underpriced on what’s he done, you’re right.

He won a chase debut fairly impressively receiving weight and has fallen on his second start and hasn’t been seen since.

Think it tells us how poor a renewal it is looking that a 5 year old with so little experience and has fallen on its previous start is 4th in the betting at 6/1. Now he could go and hack up, I’ll be happy to let him do it at that price. Race is very competitive, but is looking a Duc renewal this year.

[Exar Essay]

14 of the last 15 winners had previously raced at Cheltenham

Seven of the last ten favourites have won. All at odds on

No winner coming off the back of a fall since Moscow Flyer '02

Last twelve winners won last time out.

13 of last 15 were rated 142+ over hurdles.

This century only 2 winners had fallen this season.

15 from the last 17 had three or four chase runs, the other two were unbeaten.

All winners this century had already won a race with today's jockey

Not looking good for HEC

I'd been researching this race on Gaulstats last night, and you can throw plenty of (and pretty big ones in the case of SS and HEC) stones at any of the top 5 in the betting ... except Blue Lord. He just seems the obvious stats choice. Which is frustrating as his last run just didn't impress me

[doctorwu]

I'd been researching this race on Gaulstats last night, and you can throw plenty of (pretty big in the case of SS and HEC) stones at any of the top 5 in the betting ... except Blue Lord. He just seems the obvious stats choice. Which is frustrating as his last run just didn't impress me

Did the same EE. Just cant bring myself to back BL as I don't fancy him at all. No doubt kick myself when he wins..

[willpaterson]

In terms of Edwardstone and British runners in general, am I being too pessimistic on our quality of racing, if I’m taking a suspicious view of Timeform Ratings in our races?

I’d be judging a British 158 like Edwardstone has managed at the same level as an Irish 153, like Blue Lord has - especially when it’s been small field numbers in Britain.

Sometimes I wonder if I’m (and the market overall) putting too much weight on the difference in quality of Irish racing v British?

[Istabraq]

In terms of Edwardstone and British runners in general, am I being too pessimistic on our quality of racing, if I’m taking a suspicious view of Timeform Ratings in our races?

I’d be judging a British 158 like Edwardstone has managed at the same level as an Irish 153, like Blue Lord has - especially when it’s been small field numbers in Britain.

Sometimes I wonder if I’m (and the market overall) putting too much weight on the difference in quality of Irish racing v British?

Has been a contentious subject in here.
Personally I think Edwarstone's rating is too high, but I think that was created by the ratings given to Third Time Lucki for his early season romps.
Ultimately the Irish horses are better in general I think we all accept that so no reason not to think that one or more of the Irish Arkle contenders turn out to be better than Edwardstone...

[FinalFurlong91]

The English novice hurdlers were terrible last year so it is perfectly likely edwardstones form is windy

He is clearly the best of the British though and with magic daze and for pleasure hes going to get the race run to suit

Have my doubts that'll be enough to beat the irish personally

Especially at the prices

[opatcho]

The English novice hurdlers were terrible last year so it is perfectly likely edwardstones form is windy

He is clearly the best of the British though and with magic daze and for pleasure hes going to get the race run to suit

Have my doubts that'll be enough to beat the irish personally

Especially at the prices

Problem is..... its not like the Irish were loaded last season in the 2 mile division. That Supreme was terrible out side of the winner, who has yet to come back out to concrete his credentials

With Ferny and AI out of this race, Willie is having to rely on his third string, Blue Lord, who narrowly beat out two 5 year olds (one of them being a mare) that ran in the fred winter - horse that werent good enough to go into the Triumph. Riviere D'etel gave Ferny a decent race on paper, but I think Ferny would have improved 7-10 lengths for that run.

I'm finding myself going back to basis, and looking at who jumps the best. For me, I really like the way Third Time Lucki jumped and travelled over CD. Yup, Edwardstone has beaten TTL twice but at Cheltenham I truly believe TTL would reverse the form.
Not overaly impressed with Blue Lords and Riviere D'etel's jumping. Saint Sam make a few mistakes. Not sure whether thats was down to the pace they were going but they didnt really look like natural chasers to me

... and as much as I like TTL for the Arkle, its highly likely to bypass it. FFS

[Ray]

Problem is..... its not like the Irish were loaded last season in the 2 mile division. That Supreme was terrible out side of the winner, who has yet to come back out to concrete his credentials

With Ferny and AI out of this race, Willie is having to rely on his third string, Blue Lord, who narrowly beat out two 5 year olds (one of them being a mare) that ran in the fred winter - horse that werent good enough to go into the Triumph. Riviere D'etel gave Ferny a decent race on paper, but I think Ferny would have improved 7-10 lengths for that run.

I'm finding myself going back to basis, and looking at who jumps the best. For me, I really like the way Third Time Lucki jumped and travelled over CD. Yup, Edwardstone has beaten TTL twice but at Cheltenham I truly believe TTL would reverse the form.
Not overaly impressed with Blue Lords and Riviere D'etel's jumping. Saint Sam make a few mistakes. Not sure whether thats was down to the pace they were going but they didnt really look like natural chasers to me

... and as much as I like TTL for the Arkle, its highly likely to bypass it. FFS

Riviere has made 1 bad jump in her chasing career and it happened to be the one that lost her the grade 1! She jumps well! And blue lord has beaten her giving weight when she was rated around 151, i think because the race has fallen apart it doesnt mean its going to be wide open..the right horses are heading thr market, there is a reason TTL is 20/1!

[Craigy14]

For me, even though it’s potentially, WPM’s ‘third’ dart at the race, I think Blue Lord will have learnt so much in that Grade 1 at the DRF. His jumping was impeccable on his first 2 starts, now he’s learnt at Grade 1 pace and still pulled it out the bag. My worry for Rivi?re Detal is possibly being overraced, but I think she is the biggest danger. I just can’t accept the English form, and if Edwardstone proves us wrong so be it.

There is no stand out imo.

[Lobos]

If it's dry leading up to the fez then I still think there's a chance TTL runs. Skelton, like the rest of us, must think that the race is wide open. Yes, TTL has been beaten by Edwardstone twice but both times he's run off a short break. If they can really freshen him up he could still be competitive in the race especially having looked so good over C/D which can't be said for any others in the race.

[opatcho]

Riviere has made 1 bad jump in her chasing career and it happened to be the one that lost her the grade 1! She jumps well! And blue lord has beaten her giving weight when she was rated around 151, i think because the race has fallen apart it doesnt mean its going to be wide open..the right horses are heading thr market, there is a reason TTL is 20/1!

She jumps to the right on left handed tracks. Old course at Cheltenham? no thanks

She was the most experienced chaser going into the Arkle Novice Chase at Punch, she still make mistakes. Says it all really - a 5 year old GE trained mares, 3rd in the betting for the Arkle