2022 Arkle

[MadeinJapan]

I think Riviere Detel is a fairly confident selection in this race.
Her form is very solid in comparison to others.
And to do what she did at Leopardstown against Ferny Hollow and then again vs Blue Lord shows she really has a good heart.

To make a flat footed mistake and stop dead at the last, after the solid pace they went set by Saint Sam, and to be able to recover and almost get up from a near standing start was super encouraging and I'd give her a few pounds credit for that for sure.

She jumps pretty well overall and whilst I respect Edwardstone and Blue Lord and indeed some of the less proven types, she looks the one to beat and should be favourite IMO.
I think the only reason she isn't is because of her age.

How does she reverse the form with Blue Lord from the last race though with less weight allowance? Granted, she would have won had she not screwed the last up but she did & the name of the game is jumping especially at 2m… she’s had a lot of racing this season too & I wonder whether that’s factored into her price too? I probably will be wrong but don’t think she’ll reverse it with Blue Lord? Haut En Coloeurs is the one I think might improve past the front 3…

[Quevega]

How does she reverse the form with Blue Lord from the last race though with less weight allowance? Granted, she would have won had she not screwed the last up but she did & the name of the game is jumping especially at 2m… she’s had a lot of racing this season too & I wonder whether that’s factored into her price too? I probably will be wrong but don’t think she’ll reverse it with Blue Lord? Haut En Coloeurs is the one I think might improve past the front 3…

The only 2 I have backed is HEC & RD.
Of course the name of the game is jumping but you don't bank on the same thing happening in every race.
The edge in this specific head to head is that they will be 2lb closer in weights but I think she is at least value for that, given her mistake cost her a few lengths.
She may make a mistake again, but that happens and can happen to any of them, at any stage.
The amount of racing can be a plus as much as a negative, again that's something that's hard to gauge and opinions on it will vary.

[MadeinJapan]

The only 2 I have backed is HEC & RD.
Of course the name of the game is jumping but you don't bank on the same thing happening in every race.
The edge in this specific head to head is that they will be 2lb closer in weights but I think she is at least value for that, given her mistake cost her a few lengths.
She may make a mistake again, but that happens and can happen to any of them, at any stage.
The amount of racing can be a plus as much as a negative, again that's something that's hard to gauge and opinions on it will vary.

Fair enough - she would have won without that mistake at the last tbf. Blue Lord’s jumping has been superb so far (his latest outing I think he’ll have learned from it as Novicey at a couple) IMO & he reminds me of Footpad in the same colours.

Has it to prove on the main stage however & I’ve covered HEC too as think he’ll put up a serious challenge.

[Istabraq]

I’m bemused there’s been so little mention of Haut en Couleurs, presumably heading elsewhere ?
If he were to come here he would have a huge chance IMO…

[ComplyOrDie]

I’m bemused there’s been so little mention of Haut en Couleurs, presumably heading elsewhere ?
If he were to come here he would have a huge chance IMO…

Personally, I'd say the one and only form line we have with him, on a line through Gentleman De Mee, would leave him with a bit to find. Unfortunately because he fell so early on LTO, that is all we have to go on.

He was getting a 6lb age allowance against Gentleman De Mee that day, and beat him 5 1/2 lengths. Gentleman De Mee finished 15 1/2 lengths behind Coeur Sublime, who in turn was 4 lengths behind Ferny Hollow, all off levels. Ferny Hollow had close form ties with Riviere D'etel, who now has form ties with Blue Lord, all in all, taken literally of course, it would leave Haut En Couleurs with enough to find, IMO.

For all he may well find that required improvement, a leap of faith is required compared with the more prominent market players who have been out and completed their races.

[NormaJean85]

Personally, I'd say the one and only form line we have with him, on a line through Gentleman De Mee, would leave him with a bit to find. Unfortunately because he fell so early on LTO, that is all we have to go on.

He was getting a 6lb age allowance against Gentleman De Mee that day, and beat him 5 1/2 lengths. Gentleman De Mee finished 15 1/2 lengths behind Coeur Sublime, who in turn was 4 lengths behind Ferny Hollow, all off levels. Ferny Hollow had close form ties with Riviere D'etel, who now has form ties with Blue Lord, all in all, taken literally of course, it would leave Haut En Couleurs with enough to find, IMO.

For all he may well find that required improvement, a leap of faith is required compared with the more prominent market players who have been out and completed their races.

Taking form too literally I think. I could also say HEC is better than Bob Olinger through GDM ->Embrun Mitja->Capodanno -> Bob Olinger. Personally think HEC is the bet.

I'd be weary of GDM early season runs. Think it was potentially going handicap route but blew its mark LTO

[Istabraq]

Personally, I'd say the one and only form line we have with him, on a line through Gentleman De Mee, would leave him with a bit to find. Unfortunately because he fell so early on LTO, that is all we have to go on.

He was getting a 6lb age allowance against Gentleman De Mee that day, and beat him 5 1/2 lengths. Gentleman De Mee finished 15 1/2 lengths behind Coeur Sublime, who in turn was 4 lengths behind Ferny Hollow, all off levels. Ferny Hollow had close form ties with Riviere D'etel, who now has form ties with Blue Lord, all in all, taken literally of course, it would leave Haut En Couleurs with enough to find, IMO.

For all he may well find that required improvement, a leap of faith is required compared with the more prominent market players who have been out and completed their races.

So hard with a horse who’s only successfully jumped a dozen fences in public, he really could be anything.
I go back to his Triumph last year having only been with Mullins for a few weeks, he split Adagio and Zanihiyr who have proved themselves decent horses this year.
It’s just the lack of noise around him that surprises me, the preview circuit might tell us more…

[Exar Essay]

Taking form too literally I think. I could also say HEC is better than Bob Olinger through GDM ->Embrun Mitja->Capodanno -> Bob Olinger. Personally think HEC is the bet.

I'd be weary of GDM early season runs. Think it was potentially going handicap route but blew its mark LTO

No chance was GDM running for a mark in my opinion. Willie doesn’t do chase handicap plots and GDM was running at least 3lbs better before he clattered the last. I prefer the view that he’s actually running himself into some decent form … a bit like last year but not as striking.

[ryanh97]

I’m bemused there’s been so little mention of Haut en Couleurs, presumably heading elsewhere ?
If he were to come here he would have a huge chance IMO…

Agreed Ista, I'm just waiting for confirmation of where he is running before I press the button. He'll be my only dart left in this disaster of a race

[ComplyOrDie]

Taking form too literally I think. LTO

I literally put that I was taking it 'literally'

[ComplyOrDie]

So hard with a horse who’s only successfully jumped a dozen fences in public, he really could be anything.

Yeah, I agree mate.

He's one of them, because of the limited evidence you'd need to just make a judgement call.

I'm sure it's been done already, but other than the small form sample we have, have there been many/any horses who have gone and won an Arkle on the back of falling LTO?

[doctorwu]

Yeah, I agree mate.

He's one of them, because of the limited evidence you'd need to just make a judgement call.

I'm sure it's been done already, but other than the small form sample we have, have there been many/any horses who have gone and won an Arkle on the back of falling LTO?

Moscow Flyer 2002

[Rooster Booster]

Moscow Flyer 2002

Spot on...though he was an 8 year old having his 6th chase in the Arkle.

[ComplyOrDie]

Moscow Flyer 2002

Cheers.

Knew there would be at least one. Hugely different profile to Haut En Couleurs, but certainly answered the question

[willpaterson]

I’m also in the HEC camp, was also considering Saint Sam as an alternative to the shorter priced horses in the market.

I feel in that chase debut there some elements of the run that could have be improved over time and that he wasn’t all out in that race. The rating of this race was strong and not far off what’s been achieved by the shorter priced horses.

The late effort in the Triumph was pretty impressive too last year, and potentially this race may have quite a lot of early pace which could help HEC’s claims.