2022 Arkle

[ComplyOrDie]

I keep attempting to unravel this race, with a lack of success, however, for whatever reason I do keep coming back to Coeur Sublime, at the prices.

He'll go into the race as the highest rated hurdler of the lot, I believe, and is still a 20/1 poke.

I do think he ran on merit on his first chase start to see where they stood with regards to Ferny Hollow, and since that run the plan has always been a handicap mark, however, the mark given (148) could seem rather high when it will likely be subject to some tax on top too, so I could see HdB possibly re-routing him now Ferny is out the race. He probably has a small amount to find with Riviere D'etel, but for me he isn't a 6 times the price horse behind RD or Blue Lord based on form.

If the plan was a handicap mark in mind for him then his second run behind Ferny/RD can be marked up as they likely wouldn't have wanted to end up too close to them, he'll also be getting 6lbs back from RD should they meet in the Arkle, from that particular run.

I've just topped up on him.

[Craigy14]

I keep attempting to unravel this race, with a lack of success, however, for whatever reason I do keep coming back to Coeur Sublime, at the prices.

He'll go into the race as the highest rated hurdler of the lot, I believe, and is still a 20/1 poke.

I do think he ran on merit on his first chase start to see where they stood with regards to Ferny Hollow, and since that run the plan has always been a handicap mark, however, the mark given (148) could seem rather high when it will likely be subject to some tax on top too, so I could see HdB possibly re-routing him now Ferny is out the race. He probably has a small amount to find with Riviere D'etel, but for me he isn't a 6 times the price horse behind RD or Blue Lord based on form.

If the plan was a handicap mark in mind for him then his second run behind Ferny/RD can be marked up as they likely wouldn't have wanted to end up too close to them, he'll also be getting 6lbs back from RD should they meet in the Arkle, from that particular run.

I've just topped up on him.

I think he’ll take his chance, along with Magic Daze, given how open the race looks.

I’m not too sure I could fancy him too much though. Good debut behind Ferny but then was beaten even further second time up, along with Rivi?re Detal. I don’t see him turning that form round then you add in Blue Lord and Edwardstone and he’s struggling to place imo.

Add in a possible second WPM runner and he goes further down the pecking order. I cashed Magic Daze in case she wasn’t entered but I’m going to go back in NRNB as with the allowance she maybe could just get involved coming here fresh.

I suppose with the 2 main fancies being ruled out, everyone is looking at other angles and nobody is too strong on anyone at the minute.

[Istabraq]

I keep attempting to unravel this race, with a lack of success, however, for whatever reason I do keep coming back to Coeur Sublime, at the prices.

I don't know what to make of the horse, odd that he had three hurdle seasons albeit his last cut short and then goes chasing.
Showed promise as you say then won at Gowran beating absolutely nothing, rated 148 (Irish), some Irish horses get a free ride from the UK handicapper and as this one has plenty of hurdle form under his belt there is a chance he could be one of them.
Possible curveball, he ran well in Pentland Hills Triumph on the New Course and atrociously in Eparante's Champion Hurdle on the Old Course...

[Istabraq]

Blue Lord 5.2 to back 5.6 to lay.
Last matched price 5.5.
Probably nothing but seems a slightly more enhanced price than it should be for a 11/4 - 3/1 shot…

[Lobos]

Ista , have you turned into the Grim Reaper??

[MadeinJapan]

Blue Lord 5.2 to back 5.6 to lay.
Last matched price 5.5.
Probably nothing but seems a slightly more enhanced price than it should be for a 11/4 - 3/1 shot…

Could say the same for a few on the Exchange currently - Riviere Detel the same 6.2/6.4 (ok spread’s slightly narrower) for a 7/2 shot. Beneath them some liquidity for Saint Sam & not a lot for HEC & Coeur Sublime, large spreads… HEC 12.5/18 for example for a 7/1 shot in bookies. Some of these prices factor in not being NRNB on the Exchange however as well as liquidity too I’d think…

[Istabraq]

Ista , have you turned into the Grim Reaper??

Haha yes it seems that way.
Just a bored half hour and checked all ante post races priced up on the exchange, just struck me as a little misaligned to industry prices, but as I said probably nothing…

[Lobos]

Haha yes it seems that way.
Just a bored half hour and checked all ante post races priced up on the exchange, just struck me as a little misaligned to industry prices, but as I said probably nothing…

Apart from Magic Daze he's the last chance I have in the Arkle out of about 10 placed. Made a proper mess of the race so wouldn't be surprised if he falls by the wayside as well

[Istabraq]

Apart from Magic Daze he's the last chance I have in the Arkle out of about 10 placed. Made a proper mess of the race so wouldn't be surprised if he falls by the wayside as well

It’s ripe for a boil over, weaker renewals always are, Magic Daze may well take a step forward, she’ll be fresh…

[FinalFurlong91]

Haha yes it seems that way.
Just a bored half hour and checked all ante post races priced up on the exchange, just struck me as a little misaligned to industry prices, but as I said probably nothing…

Maybe says more about the awful prices the bookies are offering

[Hurricane fly]

I think the next 2 weeks are the worst of the year for prices, races like the Supreme will almost certainly see the main protagonists drift before the market resets itself

[Buckingham]

I think the next 2 weeks are the worst of the year for prices, races like the Supreme will almost certainly see the main protagonists drift before the market resets itself

This is true if the field sizes hold up but there are races where this may not be the case. For example if you look at the Supreme, the exchange prices for CH, DD, Jonbon, Kilcruit, State Man and Mighty Potter (assume SG goes Ballymore) add up to only 80%. All of the rest are 100/1+ rags currently - even if you assume 5 of these turn up you are well below 100% so the front end of the market has to shorten (likely mostly DD in this case as there is still a risk of him switching to Ballymore). The Turners is even more of an issue with only really 2 confirmed runners (Bob and Lhomme). If you have a view in these races then potentially still value to be had.

[Istabraq]

I think the next 2 weeks are the worst of the year for prices, races like the Supreme will almost certainly see the main protagonists drift before the market resets itself

Definitely usually the case though the policy of some bookies offering an Ante Post market as well as a NRNB market can provide some value as well as choice…

[charlie]

For a really consistent horse I think Edwardstone is a favourite to take on. Setting aside his BD & UR he is 2221113111 vs British trained horses. He tends to run, improve, find a level and then run consistently to that level. He's ran to an RPR of 164 three times and his rating of 159 seems on the money to me. I don't think he'll improve at Cheltenham, but then he might not need to. It's impossible not to respect his credentials because he does a lot of things right. Travels well, jumps really well and he looks uncomplicated. Those on at bigger prices should be purring at his chances, but the rest of us have to try and pick holes (as we should in every short priced favourite). Why don't I think he'll improve at Cheltenham? Because he's run to higher levels pre and post festival on two separate occasions and I'm not sure Cheltenham sees him to completely best effect. If he posted an RPR of 160 for example, would there be a Blue Lord, or RDT, or Haut En Couleurs waiting in the wings to run to a higher level? I think so, and, would they have been winning the 4/5 runner races Edwardstone has been winning with the same ease? I think so. The other thing on my mind is when you introduce Irish opposition and/or big festivals the 1's and 2's disappear and Edwardstone's form reads 6553. He's obviously running with credit in those races and there is little lost in defeat over hurdles finishing 5th in a County Hurdle or 3rd at Aintree, but it's in the back of my mind. I appreciate fences have brought about significant improvement and he may well leave those dips behind, but I think for those reasons he can be taken on. Just trying to figure out what to do it with.....

[ComplyOrDie]

For a really consistent horse I think Edwardstone is a favourite to take on

I couldn't agree more, tbh.

He's one I've made my bed with and now I've got to lay in it. He won't have a penny of my money on him.

I just can't see how one of the Irish contingent isn't better than him. If one of Mullins, Ellliott or de Bromhead haven't got something better than him I'll be absolutely amazed.

Depending on who turns up I may even place lay him nearer the time, that's what I'm thinking about his chances in the race.