2022 Arkle

[Eggs]

….very tight at the top of this market, a rizzla paper between Edwardstone, Blue Lord and Riviere. Riviere available at 9/2 with Coral.

[jono]

Edwardstone and Third Time Lucki giggling to themselves I reckon.

That was my first take.

Hard to not side with Mullins in the Arkle.
He could take the festival apart this year.
But there's no superstar there.

Shame we didn't get to see what HeC could do.

[Lobos]

Don't think Blue Lord did a thing right and still won albeit RD was unlucky at the last. I'm super happy to have him for March. The potential to clang one and fall is still there alright.

Good point. If he jumps well then that'll be a few lengths saved on today.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I’ve seen Blue Lord jump better than that in his first two runs.
The fact he still won the race bodes well imo, if he jumps as he can would obviously help, but he’s certainly still a big player as is RD.

[Kevloaf]

That was my first take.

Hard to not side with Mullins in the Arkle.
He could take the festival apart this year.
But there's no superstar there.

Shame we didn't get to see what HeC could do.

Last time it looked like that, Duc Des Genivres won

[jono]

Last time it looked like that, Duc Des Genivres won

Yeah it's a massive factor (obviosuly!)
Both Blue Lord and Edwardstone at 3/1.
Whilst I think King and connections will be bullish.
I'd side with the Mullins runner every time

[Loubell]

A Duc Des Genievres type winner is exactly right. Just a shame that Ferny Hollow misses out.

None of the front 4 in the market are going to be challenging for the Champion Chase next year, all slightly below true G1 class, the same as they were over hurdles.

Who would have thought that after the Irish Arkle we can’t separate the Irish from British as there is nothing between them.

[Kevloaf]

Not wanting to rub salt in the wounds.... but people are seemingly going a bit OTT about being unlucky with Ferny Hollow.

He was only 1.5L ahead of Riviere D'etel, being made to work.... and she's only 0.5L behind Blue Lord today.....arguably very unlucky to be........... so just how far do people think Ferny Hollow would've won by?

On the line through her, he's a length clear, at absolute best?!


I bet people fancy Ferny Hollow as an 'outsider' for the QMCC next season yet completely dismiss the horses he's clearly tied in VERY closely with in this years Arkle.


Ferny Hollow will continue to be over hyped.... IMO of course

[Exar Essay]

Not wanting to rub salt in the wounds.... but people are seemingly going a bit OTT about being unlucky with Ferny Hollow.

He was only 1.5L ahead of Riviere D'etel, being made to work.... and she's only 0.5L behind Blue Lord today.....arguably very unlucky to be........... so just how far do people think Ferny Hollow would've won by?

On the line through her, he's a length clear, at absolute best?!


I bet people fancy Ferny Hollow as an 'outsider' for the QMCC next season yet completely dismiss the horses he's clearly tied in VERY closely with in this years Arkle.


Ferny Hollow will continue to be over hyped.... IMO of course

Ferny gave RD an extra 4lb at Christmas compared with BL today. Also, without her thwacking the last, she’d have won by a couple of lengths today surely?

In my view, Ferny is at least 5lbs better than BL.

[Lobos]

In this game you just can't dwell on the 'unlucky' speeches as it definitely evens itself out. Move on.

[Kevloaf]

Ferny gave RD an extra 4lb at Christmas compared with BL today. Also, without her thwacking the last, she’d have won by a couple of lengths today surely?

In my view, Ferny is at least 5lbs better than BL.

Weight for age though, so the 2lb extra she had then, is negated now as she's improved for getting older (in theory). Like in March, she won't have it, but will be stronger.

That gets ignored every single time, because it's pretty much impossible for us to get an accurate reading on... but taking the weights literally from earlier in the season wouldn't be strong enough in my opinion to take that view. It assumes she's run to the exact same level, where what is much more likely is she's improved today compared to her last run.

[Exar Essay]

Weight for age though, so the 2lb extra she had then, is negated now as she's improved for getting older (in theory). Like in March, she won't have it, but will be stronger.

That gets ignored every single time, because it's pretty much impossible for us to get an accurate reading on... but taking the weights literally from earlier in the season wouldn't be strong enough in my opinion to take that view. It assumes she's run to the exact same level, where what is much more likely is she's improved today compared to her last run.

Fair point. Do you agree that she’s have won but for that last fence blunder though?

For what it’s worth, my view is that Ferny was the best 2m novice chaser this year. But not in a different league.

Ps. This isn’t an ‘unlucky’ post. I’m not suggesting Ferny was a banker.

[ryanh97]

Not wanting to rub salt in the wounds.... but people are seemingly going a bit OTT about being unlucky with Ferny Hollow.

He was only 1.5L ahead of Riviere D'etel, being made to work.... and she's only 0.5L behind Blue Lord today.....arguably very unlucky to be........... so just how far do people think Ferny Hollow would've won by?

On the line through her, he's a length clear, at absolute best?!


I bet people fancy Ferny Hollow as an 'outsider' for the QMCC next season yet completely dismiss the horses he's clearly tied in VERY closely with in this years Arkle.


Ferny Hollow will continue to be over hyped.... IMO of course

Are you still bitter about cashing him out, not just once but twice, in his bumper year Kev?

[charlie]

I’ve seen Blue Lord jump better than that in his first two runs.
The fact he still won the race bodes well imo, if he jumps as he can would obviously help, but he’s certainly still a big player as is RD.

The fact Blue Lord jumped better on his first two starts is not that relevant IMO. The Fairyhouse and Naas races placed no real pressure on his jumping which is why I was weary attaching too much weight to those performances. Today was a very different test and much more similar to the type of test he will face in March. Yes, he passed the test and won, but, was sloppy at quite a few of his obstacles and a mistake by the mare handed him the race. I'm certainly not too downbeat as he's my only Arkle bet at the moment, but at least we know now that FH would have jumped BL into submission, so at least that's been put to bed

[Kevloaf]

Are you still bitter about cashing him out, not just once but twice, in his bumper year Kev?

- No, we're back on speaking terms after getting out with a profit this season

Fair point. Do you agree that she’s have won but for that last fence blunder though?

For what it’s worth, my view is that Ferny was the best 2m novice chaser this year. But not in a different league.

Ps. This isn’t an ‘unlucky’ post. I’m not suggesting Ferny was a banker.

I think she'd probably have won yeah, but that doesn't automatically mean I think Ferny would have won. He'd have been in the mix, but as Riviere has shown today, the difference can be one jump, so people who do think Ferny was a shoe-in are a bit pie in the sky.

I'd suggest Appreciate It not going novice chasing is much unluckier



Ferny did deserve to be fav, I'm not arguing that, and it's a shame people haven't got a run for their money. That isn't what anyone wants.