2022 Arkle

[jack1092]

Top mares tend to be almost as good as geldings even without the allowance.......and so my point is her mares allowance essentially compensates for being a 5 year old, which no longer have an allowance

Its only a theory.....but why less inclined to rule out Riviere like other 5 year olds

But she's a 5yo like any other? If she's as good as the boys, then more likely as good as the 5yo boys, as she was no superstar last year. So therefore falls under the same blanket as them?

[Quevega]

I've enjoyed this one about the mares allowance and 5 year olds

[TigerRolllllll]

But she's a 5yo like any other? If she's as good as the boys, then more likely as good as the 5yo boys, as she was no superstar last year. So therefore falls under the same blanket as them?

Yes, but she gets an allowance....so if as good as 5 year old boys without it, then she can compete with older horses

Sorry, not sure how to explain it better

I sill prefer BL and Edward tho personally

[FinalFurlong91]

I feel like honeysuckle easily beating a crop of very average 2 mile hurdlers has duped us into thinking the mares allowance is a gift

But the mares do need it to compete with top geldings in the majority of cases

I could certainly see the argument that these aren't top geldings given willies best two novice prospects are injured

If any of them are proper grade 1 prospects they will beat her, if they arent then she has a great chance tomorrow and in March

None of these though looks to have the latent talent to trouble shiskin or energumene in 2023

[Istabraq]

I feel like honeysuckle easily beating a crop of very average 2 mile hurdlers has duped us into thinking the mares allowance is a gift

But the mares do need it to compete with top geldings in the majority of cases

I agree, but I do wonder whether the recent enhancement to the mares programme will make the exploits of Honeysuckle, PTKO etc more common.
I know nothing about breeding so happy to be corrected but I've always understood that mares were mainly used to breed from rather than racing until recently, the investment in the programme could change that, I don't think we're more than a couple of mares championship victories away from a revision of allowance...

[TigerRolllllll]

I feel like honeysuckle easily beating a crop of very average 2 mile hurdlers has duped us into thinking the mares allowance is a gift

But the mares do need it to compete with top geldings in the majority of cases

I could certainly see the argument that these aren't top geldings given willies best two novice prospects are injured

If any of them are proper grade 1 prospects they will beat her, if they arent then she has a great chance tomorrow and in March

None of these though looks to have the latent talent to trouble shiskin or energumene in 2023

Agree - its looks a poor race....being kind!

Only chance of a poss star is Blue Lord...second in Supreme and then being better as chaser is something we have seen go on to be decent....but i'm not convinced he is that good....lets hope

[Kevloaf]

Agree - its looks a poor race....being kind!

Only chance of a poss star is Blue Lord...second in Supreme and then being better as chaser is something we have seen go on to be decent....but i'm not convinced he is that good....lets hope

Would Haut not still be able to still be a poss star?

Placed in both Grade 1 hurdles...
Unbeaten over fences so far (all 1 race).... if he smashes the field tomorrow then wins the Arkle....

Potential star?

I don't think Blue Lord is the only poss star....


No star is odds on though

[Can't Catch Me]

Couldn't agree more Kev. Think HTC definitely still has star potential. Every bit as much as Blue Lord.

[FinalFurlong91]

Agree - its looks a poor race....being kind!

Only chance of a poss star is Blue Lord...second in Supreme and then being better as chaser is something we have seen go on to be decent....but i'm not convinced he is that good....lets hope

Id agree with that

Blue Lord pulled like a lunatic last year giving himself no chance and is probably a lot closer ability wise to appreciate it and Bob olinger than the distance he was beaten (or going to get beaten in the supreme) suggests

we will find out how good he is tomorrow

I'm just hoping one of the mullins horses bolts up personally and proves to be better than average

[BigBucksFlatSpot]

I agree, but I do wonder whether the recent enhancement to the mares programme will make the exploits of Honeysuckle, PTKO etc more common.
I know nothing about breeding so happy to be corrected but I've always understood that mares were mainly used to breed from rather than racing until recently, the investment in the programme could change that, I don't think we're more than a couple of mares championship victories away from a revision of allowance...

I think honeysuckle and an average group of hurdles skew it. This century with the year off for foot and mouth we've had 20 festivals. That's 20 gold cups, champion hurdles, champion chase and stayers ...80 in total

Mares have won 3. Annie power , epatante and honeysuckle...and only the champion hurdle.

I think the trajectory particularly over 2 mile hurdles might indicate a trend of sorts but I think we are a way from removing the allowance.. We are nowhere near 50 percent mares in training or winning even with the allowance. That's probably not the aim anyway but there is a bit of recency bias particularly as the whole point is we want more mares winners and them staying in training

So riviere for the arkle, champ chase and then gold cup for me

[Spectre]

Just read the article in Racing Post - if you thought your horse was good enough to win the Arkle and goes best fresh, why would you 'make hay while the ground is good' just one month before the festival? Can't be a positive sign

Because Aintree is a viable alternative to the Festival, and if the rain came in March TTL probably wouldn't run. Therefore it makes sense to take in a good novice chase like the Kingmaker and then keep options open.

[BigBucksFlatSpot]

And guess if edwardstone beats it comfortably then you go to Aintree if you turn the form around you are probably the leading UK arkle contender. Good for us to know where they stack up

[Splinterboy82]

Dennis O’Regan literally spunking over Riv D’etel for both DRF & the big one on FFP. In summary Ferny is a different level to BL and sees Saint Sam as biggest danger…..

Make of that what you will….

[Spectre]

I happen to agree with him, but I guess we find out this weekend and I'm prepared to be wrong.

[TigerRolllllll]

Would Haut not still be able to still be a poss star?

Placed in both Grade 1 hurdles...
Unbeaten over fences so far (all 1 race).... if he smashes the field tomorrow then wins the Arkle....

Potential star?

I don't think Blue Lord is the only poss star....


No star is odds on though

Possible - but not sure likely to win Arkle at 5........but if he did, then we would have total notice