2022 Arkle

[darlojim]

FFS! Sat on 4 slips with 33s on Ferny. Gutted.
"All part of the fun" isn't quite cutting it yet
A few putting up Riviere d'Etel but she could still head down the Mares Chase route yet....might be worth waiting to hear plans?
Haut en Couleurs and Saint Sam coming here now along with Blue Lord? Reckon one of the first two will go elsewhere.

I'd take a guess at HEC and blue lord here... Jungle boogie and saint sam to go against bob..

[Dandrew99]

Or perhaps he could now aim Coeur sublime here as opposed to the grand annual?

Might be an interesting related double with Thedevilscoachman for the GA?

This race just feels very 'meh' to me now. We're looking at mid 150s horses (feeling generous) to win an Arkle. There's a few in there capable of 160 but I highly doubt we will be backing any of these for the Champion Chase next year.

[Buckingham]

I'd take a guess at HEC and blue lord here... Jungle boogie and saint sam to go against bob..

Think Willie said at the weekend that he wanted to keep Saint Sam to 2m for the time being (didn't mention the Arkle, was more a general comment).

[Kevloaf]

I watched Couer Sublime earlier today and thought he'd be nowhere near winning an Arkle.

I don't think he's well handicapped either if they went for the GA. Doesn't look to be plotted at all, looks like he's run to his mark, and he's below the top grade.

[AaronLad]

I watched Couer Sublime earlier today and thought he'd be nowhere near winning an Arkle.

I don't think he's well handicapped either if they went for the GA. Doesn't look to be plotted at all, looks like he's run to his mark, and he's below the top grade.

Surely today's run wouldn't have been him at his best? Today's race will be considered when given his chase mark, grand annual would have been the plan knowing they couldn't beat ferny IMO

[Kevloaf]

Surely today's run wouldn't have been him at his best? Today's race will be considered when given his chase mark, grand annual would have been the plan knowing they couldn't beat ferny IMO

Listening to Henry after the race, I don't think they planned it at all.

Goes without saying but not every trainer is plotting every single horse they have, and HdB, after the FH news, I think will chuck him in the Arkle.

I can't really think of any examples of Henry really plotting one through a season and collecting at Cheltenham?

Not his style. He's bold and goes for the best races (and credit to him for it)

I think he's too short in either market personally.... no interest whatsoever...and I did the research before his run and was sat with Arkle and GA open, hovering ... unimpressed






I have been wrong before though, at least once

[Moby123]

I watched Couer Sublime earlier today and thought he'd be nowhere near winning an Arkle.

I don't think he's well handicapped either if they went for the GA. Doesn't look to be plotted at all, looks like he's run to his mark, and he's below the top grade.

Do we know it's handicap mark as a chaser yet to say it's not well handicapped?
Mid 150s horse on RPR's as a hurdler. Could well have some improvement as a chaser. Rule of thumb is to add 10lbs to RPR's when switching to fences as in indication. If running off mark in the low 150s I can see it having a chance. His fencing doesn't look to be a problem.
Will it get a mark in the low 150s or better though?

[AaronLad]

Listening to Henry after the race, I don't think they planned it at all.

Goes without saying but not every trainer is plotting every single horse they have, and HdB, after the FH news, I think will chuck him in the Arkle.

I can't really think of any examples of Henry really plotting one through a season and collecting at Cheltenham?

Not his style. He's bold and goes for the best races (and credit to him for it)

I think he's too short in either market personally.... no interest whatsoever...and I did the research before his run and was sat with Arkle and GA open, hovering ... unimpressed






I have been wrong before though, at least once

If you get time have another watch of the Xmas novice chase, Coeur sublime isn't asked a serious question really after closing the gap on the leaders before 2 out, usual 3 out, wasn't ridden anywhere near like the two in front and Keith hardly whipped him, twice which I could see. I know hdb isn't a handicap plotter but I think he knew from the first run he wasn't going to beat ferny.

[Kevloaf]

Do we know it's handicap mark as a chaser yet to say it's not well handicapped?
Mid 150s horse on RPR's as a hurdler. Could well have some improvement as a chaser. Rule of thumb is to add 10lbs to RPR's when switching to fences as in indication. If running off mark in the low 150s I can see it having a chance. His fencing doesn't look to be a problem.
Will it get a mark in the low 150s or better though?

Sorry, should have said ...." I don't think he's going to be well handicapped enough either if they went for the GA."

I don't see what he's done as a chaser to say he'll be better than that over fences than he was hurdles, and even if he matched his hurdles rating I don't think it's good enough to really get in the mix.

If I thought he'd been running well within himself, for a different trainer, I'd be more interested.

I just think when he gets his HC mark, it'll be fairly accurate for his ability... with not a lot in hand.... and that won't set the standard to win the race, and it won't leave him best handicapped in the race.

Time will tell


I watched it back earlier AaronLad - I'd go back to my line that not every horse that doesn't reach G1 level means they're automatically a handicap plot. I'd say he was just happy to get around safely and collect prize money for 3rd in a Grade 1, rather than it be a master plan, to find a weak Beginners Chase afterwards before sniping the Grand Annual.

[delsie777]

I think the owners reported that Saint Sam would be sticking to 2 miles. Couer Sublime just not up to the grade and habitually deteriorates as the season goes on. Blue Lord is the bet, but probably not antepost as the price is as short as it's likely to be for a while.

[AaronLad]

Sorry, should have said ...." I don't think he's going to be well handicapped enough either if they went for the GA."

I don't see what he's done as a chaser to say he'll be better than that over fences than he was hurdles, and even if he matched his hurdles rating I don't think it's good enough to really get in the mix.

If I thought he'd been running well within himself, for a different trainer, I'd be more interested.

I just think when he gets his HC mark, it'll be fairly accurate for his ability... with not a lot in hand.... and that won't set the standard to win the race, and it won't leave him best handicapped in the race.

Time will tell


I watched it back earlier AaronLad - I'd go back to my line that not every horse that doesn't reach G1 level means they're automatically a handicap plot. I'd say he was just happy to get around safely and collect prize money for 3rd in a Grade 1, rather than it be a master plan, to find a weak Beginners Chase afterwards before sniping the Grand Annual.

Didn't say a master plan but a 3rd run is needed for a handicap mark, he'll go arkle now anyway and win it with Rachael on board 16/1 nrnb

[Istabraq]

HDBs only festival handicap winner to date has been A Plus Tard, which confirms Kevs point that he targets the graded races above all else…

[DenmanSacre]

Riviere D'etel not a terrible price at 6/1 really, considering how close she was to Ferny last time. Might top up.

The winner for me. Got close to Ferny which is more than I'd say for the rest of the runners. She might lose her allowance but will also be getting stronger.

Sad to see Ferny out but it does open the race up now.

[ToniC]

When was the last time a 5 year old ever won a chase of any kind, novice or handicap, at the festival? Just doesn’t happen. Edwardstone spent last season getting beat off a mark in the 140-somethings in handicap hurdles. There’s juice in blue Lord 3/1 IMO.

[DenmanSacre]

When was the last time a 5 year old ever won a chase of any kind, novice or handicap, at the festival? Just doesn’t happen. Edwardstone spent last season getting beat off a mark in the 140-somethings in handicap hurdles. There’s juice in blue Lord 3/1 IMO.

A Plus Tard probably.

The question is how many attempt it.

Just looked over the last 5 years at the shorter novice races.

Arkle

2021 - Allmankind 4th 5/1. Horrible ride by Skelton when he was probably the 2nd best horse in the race.
2020 - Fakir 3/1. 2nd.
2018. Saint Calvados 11/4 4th. See the Skelton comment above but the ride was even worse.

Turners -

2020 - Saint Sonnet unplaced. 33/1
2018 - Terrefort 2nd at 3/1 fav.

Novice hcap chase

2020 - Torpillo 10th 40/1
2019 - A Plus Tard 1st. 5/1 fav
2018 - Demi Sang PU 20/1.

Of the ones with realistic chances, 1 win, 2 2nds and 2 4ths (which should have been better places but for the rides) from 5 horses in 5 years. Decent record if they are towards the head of the market.