2022 Arkle

[FinalFurlong91]

It would seem silly to decide that blue lord could never be a better horse than ferny hollow

It may well be proven right in time but horses improve at different rates

Some improve tonnes for a fence, some are good over both

Fact is we don't know how good blue lord is, he was way way too keen in every race as a novice hurdler to do himself justice

Yet he was going to finish a clear second in the supreme anyway

He looks a more mature horse this year and is a superb jumper of a fence

Wherever he goes at Cheltenham, now that hes learnt to settle hes a live threat

[charlie]

It would seem silly to decide that blue lord could never be a better horse than ferny hollow

Who said that?

[Kevloaf]

Only just seen Willie's comments on Blue Lord - boriiiiing as it is to do..... he seems to think he's Arkle material!

Given it's just so obvious that Daryl Jacob could ride him for the owners, I wouldn't think the "Willie only running 1" is a massive factor here....

Ruby pulled rank when it was Footpad, cos Willie had nowt else....

[PresentingPercy]

Only just seen Willie's comments on Blue Lord - boriiiiing as it is to do..... he seems to think he's Arkle material!

Given it's just so obvious that Daryl Jacob could ride him for the owners, I wouldn't think the "Willie only running 1" is a massive factor here....

Ruby pulled rank when it was Footpad, cos Willie had nowt else....

Is there any guarantees Jacob will be back fit and ready for March? I haven't seen any timeframe mentioned for when he might return from his broken hip.

[Winging The Last]

Only just seen Willie's comments on Blue Lord - boriiiiing as it is to do..... he seems to think he's Arkle material!

Given it's just so obvious that Daryl Jacob could ride him for the owners, I wouldn't think the "Willie only running 1" is a massive factor here....

Ruby pulled rank when it was Footpad, cos Willie had nowt else....

As long as he’s back from his hip fracture. That could also change things if he’s not available. Townend might want to ride him in the Turners.

Anyone seen anything about how long he’s out for? Google says a hip fracture is between 10-12 weeks which would be start of March roughly

[Kevloaf]

Is there any guarantees Jacob will be back fit and ready for March? I haven't seen any timeframe mentioned for when he might return from his broken hip.

No guarantee of course...but if he was not gonna make it I genuinly think he'd have said by now in one of his blogs or whatever.

He'll have the festival in mind.

Regardless of that though, Willie is using more jockeys than ever before.... Paul is clearly the number 1, but I think the rides Sean O'Keefe has been given, as well as obviously D.Mullins, means he's not adverse to using others.... and the double greens have some pull anyway....

[Carnage at Taunton]

As long as he’s back from his hip fracture. That could also change things if he’s not available. Townend might want to ride him in the Turners.

Anyone seen anything about how long he’s out for? Google says a hip fracture is between 10-12 weeks which would be start of March roughly

I don’t think this will come down to the jockeys want, this will be the owners.
If They want him in the Arkle , that’s where he goes.
Especially given what Mullins said after the race yesterday.

[Quevega]

If he doesn't run at Dublin.like Mullins suggested.
Then I cannot see any reason he won't run in the arkle.
Unless they run him somewhere else and he gets turned over, but it#s unlikely it'll be a deep race so unlikely he'll get turned over.

[Carnage at Taunton]

If he doesn't run at Dublin.like Mullins suggested.
Then I cannot see any reason he won't run in the arkle.
Unless they run him somewhere else and he gets turned over, but it#s unlikely it'll be a deep race so unlikely he'll get turned over.

I’m really hoping he misses the DRF, as been mentioned on here already, I will be quiet happy to find things out in what is potentially a really exciting Arkle at Cheltenham.
Could be the best for some time, and the more intrigue and unknown the better imo

[Our_Duke]

Genuinely interested as was too young at the time, but did Mullins have that much ammunition prior to 2015 for this race? He only won his first Arkle in 2015 when I check, so would the 14 years prior to that have much bearing?

Had a quiet day today and took a look into this stat (Mullins having had 2 horses in the Arkle once in twenty years) to satisfy my curiosity and see how worried I should be about my Blue Lord for the Arkle going down the drain. The first thing that I found is that I wouldn't really use anything from before Champagne Fever to indicate what Mullins may plan/do in 2022. From 2000 to 2013, WPM didn't place in an Arkle or have a favourite for the race (horses below) and so it seems unlikely he was splitting any horses apart to avoid each other or limiting his runners in it for any other reason (there wasn't a Marsh Chase until 2011 to give him many options to do so) so probably just didn't have the same calibre of horses as he does now.

Runners for Willie Mullins in Arkle prior to 2013:
2013 - Avrika Ligeonairre 15/2
2012 - Blackstiarmountain 20/1
2011 - No Runners
2010 - Quiscover Fontaine 22/1, Sports Line 17/2
2009 - Golden Silver 14/1
2008 - Scotirish 20/1
2007 - No Runners
2006 - Missed That 6/1
2005 - No Runners
2004 - No Runners
2003 - Adamant Approach 7/1
2002 - Assessed 22/1
2000 - No Runners

I then took his runners from 2011 to present for the Arkle and the Jewson/Marsh/Turners Chase (when the latter was introduced) - all is at the bottom of the post. There is clearly a trend thereafter of more horses going to the Jewson/Marsh/Turners than the Arkle in most years but I would note/question:
A) Is this more a case of the type of horses Mullins has had? There aren't many horses in the Marsh/Turners list that would have gone to the Arkle with a live chance as far as I can see? They mostly clearly needed further or were real outsiders. So it doesn't look like there's been many examples of Mullins putting a 2mile specialist (or of clear grade 1 winning potential over 2 miles) over further at the festival? Does Mullins having limited runners in the Arkle maybe just point to him generally having had less top 2 mile options with 2 mile chasers up to very recently (hence not having won the QMCC)?
B) Following on from this and using his record in the Arkle, Mullins just has a lot more good Novice chasers now than previously (especially prior to 2014). In the years since 2014, Min was expected to run in the Arkle the year Altior won, and Energumene was expected to run last year (in addition to the other intended runner) so I think the one runner a year trend is coming to an end.

It's an interesting stat all the same and something to consider - but I do think it's only had a few years where its been relevant to what Mullins is working with now in terms of Novice Chasers.

2021
Arkle
Franco De Port 8/1

Jewson/Marsh/Turners
Asterion Forlonge 14/1
Blackbow 40/1

2020
Arkle
Cash Back 6/1

Jewson/Marsh/Turners
Melon 14/1
Faugheen 3/1
Tornado Flyer 10/1
Bapaume 20/1

2019
Arkle
Duc De Genievres 5/1

Jewson/Marsh/Turners
Real Steel 13/2
Pravalaguna 14/1
Voix De Reve 9/1

2018
Arkle
Footpad 5/6

Jewson/Marsh/Turners
Kemboy 15/2
Invitation Only 9/2

2017
Arkle
Royal Caviar 6/1

Jewson/Marsh/Turners
Yorkhill 6/4

2016
Arkle
Douvan 1/4

Jewson/Marsh/Turners
Black Hercules 4/1
Outlander 6/1

2015
Arkle
Un De Sceaux 4/6

Jewson/Marsh/Turners
Vautour 6/4
Valseur Lido 9/2

2014
Arkle
Champagne Fever 11/4

Jewson/Marsh/Turners
Felix Younger 7/2
Mozoltov 11/1
Djakadam 14/1

2013
Arkle
Avrika Ligeonairre 15/2

Jewson/Marsh/Turners
Aupcharlie 15/2
Marito 12/1

2012
Arkle
Blackstiarmountain 20/1

Jewson/Marsh/Turners
Sir Des Champs 3/1

2011
Arkle
No runners

Jewson/Marsh/Turners
Blazing Tempo 11/1

[ToniC]

To be fair, and I’m merely playing devils advocate here, the one time he did have 2 real good ones that could have both been fav for the Arkle he did split them? Obviously turned out to be the right decision and vautour was probably the best novice performance I’ve ever seen in the JLT, so probably ended up that he went in the right race, but he’d have won the Arkle too that year

[Quevega]

To be fair, and I’m merely playing devils advocate here, the one time he did have 2 real good ones that could have both been fav for the Arkle he did split them? Obviously turned out to be the right decision and vautour was probably the best novice performance I’ve ever seen in the JLT, so probably ended up that he went in the right race, but he’d have won the Arkle too that year

Yeah.
If Ferny wins impressively in Dublin.
And goes even money/odds on.
And the owners of Blue Lord ask Willie if he can beat Ferny.
What would Willie say ?
Especially if Bob was no longer in the Turners for some reason.

I think Blue Lord looks safe for the arkle if he doesn't run again and disappoint.
But shit can happen.

[Benjy23]

Possibly one to add to my made up interview comments this... But was this when they claimed Vautour wasn't fit and would go for the Arkle or be a non runner right until the 48hr decs?

Either way they were both RR owned which could have had some baring on being split

[Our_Duke]

Yeah.
If Ferny wins impressively in Dublin.
And goes even money/odds on.
And the owners of Blue Lord ask Willie if he can beat Ferny.
What would Willie say ?
Especially if Bob was no longer in the Turners for some reason.

I think Blue Lord looks safe for the arkle if he doesn't run again and disappoint.
But shit can happen.

Absolutely it's still possible. I was more looking into whether Willie is reluctant to put more than one in this race specifically (whereas he is happy to have multiple runners elsewhere). I don't think that will impact it much. Certainly, as is the case with any race, if the Turners opens up for some reason, or even if not, Blue Lord could go there (as could Haut En Colouers).

[Quevega]

Possibly one to add to my made up interview comments this... But was this when they claimed Vautour wasn't fit and would go for the Arkle or be a non runner right until the 48hr decs?

Either way they were both RR owned which could have had some baring on being split

That was the Gold Cup or no where scandal.
When he bolted up in the Ryanair.