2022 Arkle

[denman]

It's telling IMO that Willie has sent 2 horses here once in 20 years. Given he has so much fire power thats not an anomaly, he purposely identifies his best shot and sends others elsewhere. For all BL was very good today, does anyone genuinely think he's a better horse than Ferny? Willie has, however, shown preference for sending more horses down the Marsh route than this, which is probably why he's shortened significantly in that market too.

Owners seem a bit more hands on. No doubt Mullins would like to split them but don't think the owners will have it.

[Carnage at Taunton]

It's telling IMO that Willie has sent 2 horses here once in 20 years. Given he has so much fire power thats not an anomaly, he purposely identifies his best shot and sends others elsewhere. For all BL was very good today, does anyone genuinely think he's a better horse than Ferny? Willie has, however, shown preference for sending more horses down the Marsh route than this, which is probably why he's shortened significantly in that market too.

Mullins says he looks like an Arkle horse, he’s right.
As for being better than FH, jury’s out for me and I await more evidence before committing on that one, preferably a race with both in . Hope that is in March.

[Faugheen_Machine]

It's telling IMO that Willie has sent 2 horses here once in 20 years. Given he has so much fire power thats not an anomaly, he purposely identifies his best shot and sends others elsewhere. For all BL was very good today, does anyone genuinely think he's a better horse than Ferny? Willie has, however, shown preference for sending more horses down the Marsh route than this, which is probably why he's shortened significantly in that market too.

He was going to run two last season until the late setback for Energumene. He's got an embarrassment or riches, more so than any other year I can remember.

I'd love some even money that he runs more than one this season

[charlie]

Mullins says he looks like an Arkle horse, he’s right.
As for being better than FH, jury’s out for me and I await more evidence before committing on that one, preferably a race with both in . Hope that is in March.

Obviously name checking the race is a good thing, but ante post decisions are far better anchored in historically what Willie Mullins does, than what Willie Mullins says.

[Winging The Last]

Obviously name checking the race is a good thing, but ante post decisions are far better anchored in historically what Willie Mullins does, than what Willie Mullins says.

Playing devils advocate he technically didn't name check the Cheltenham race. He said 'Arkle' which could refer to the Irish Arkle, which in turn would be a match with Ferny which could decide if he sends one or more.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Obviously name checking the race is a good thing, but ante post decisions are far better anchored in historically what Willie Mullins does, than what Willie Mullins says.

All I can say is what I think by watching horses, which is what I am doing. Looks like the trainer agrees with me, but yes don’t mean that’s what he will do.
My bet is any race so financially make no difference, but for the festival and us I really hope he’s in the Arkle, as I think it will be a much better race. As a big lover of 2m chases, that’s what I want.

[charlie]

All I can say is what I think by watching horses, which is what I am doing. Looks like the trainer agrees with me, but yes don’t mean that’s what he will do.
My bet is any race so financially make no difference, but for the festival and us I really hope he’s in the Arkle, as I think it will be a much better race. As a big lover of 2m chases, that’s what I want.

The 2 runners once in 20 years stat isn't about personal bets or opinion, its just presenting fact. Historically, we know its highly unlikely FH and BL will both rock up, regardless of what's said by WPM. Obviously, its possible and certainly more likely in the wake of what was said, but all in all I agree that the race will be better with them both in it, and you're in a good position on any race. If Ferny were to come out for any reason then BL would probably be 7/2 so given his injury history, anything is possible.

[Carnage at Taunton]

The 2 runners once in 20 years stat isn't about personal bets or opinion, its just presenting fact. Historically, we know its highly unlikely FH and BL will both rock up, regardless of what's said by WPM. Obviously, its possible and certainly more likely in the wake of what was said, but all in all I agree that the race will be better with them both in it, and you're in a good position on any race. If Ferny were to come out for any reason then BL would probably be 7/2 so given his injury history, anything is possible.

Yep,I think that sums it up well Charlie.

[Quevega]

The 2 runners once in 20 years stat isn't about personal bets or opinion, its just presenting fact. Historically, we know its highly unlikely FH and BL will both rock up, regardless of what's said by WPM. Obviously, its possible and certainly more likely in the wake of what was said, but all in all I agree that the race will be better with them both in it, and you're in a good position on any race. If Ferny were to come out for any reason then BL would probably be 7/2 so given his injury history, anything is possible.

Yep.
He's mentioned the NH chase for about four or five of his, despite knowing he's unlikely to run more than one, and 2 at a push if he can get JP's team to run Capodanno, who looks the best staying novice chaser they have.

Dublin is the key as Willie runs more there than at the festival. pro rata.

[Rooster Booster]

It's telling IMO that Willie has sent 2 horses here once in 20 years. Given he has so much fire power thats not an anomaly, he purposely identifies his best shot and sends others elsewhere. For all BL was very good today, does anyone genuinely think he's a better horse than Ferny? Willie has, however, shown preference for sending more horses down the Marsh route than this, which is probably why he's shortened significantly in that market too.

I accept your point Charlie. I think what may make this year different is that he has two horses that you can make a strong case for winning the race in different ways therefore giving him ideal insurance. If FH settles tracking what is sure to be a frantic pace he is in pole position. If he doesn’t or there is a pace collapse the way BL settles now he will be ideally placed to pick up the pieces. I think the run of JB yesterday providing they can keep him sound will offer additional encouragement for BL Arkle backers too.

[Quevega]

I accept your point Charlie. I think what may make this year different is that he has two horses that you can make a strong case for winning the race in different ways therefore giving him ideal insurance. If FH settles tracking what is sure to be a frantic pace he is in pole position. If he doesn’t or there is a pace collapse the way BL settles now he will be ideally placed to pick up the pieces. I think the run of JB yesterday providing they can keep him sound will offer additional encouragement for BL Arkle backers too.

This is the same before Dublin in most years though !

[Kevloaf]

Blue Lord having a retained jockey would be a factor...and Ruby Walsh being there for so many of those dominant years would also have had an impact on his number of runners in the Arkle....but they'll probably all stay at 2m, until beaten, then they'll go up in trip... which makes sense with what Q is saying, where they'll go Irish Arkle, sort themselves out and anything beaten may go up in trip, or be deemed not good enough to go.



At the moment, you'd want to be on all of them, before they sort themselves out... unless you're convinced Ferny Hollow is head and shoulders above.

[Quevega]

Blue Lord having a retained jockey would be a factor...and Ruby Walsh being there for so many of those dominant years would also have had an impact on his number of runners in the Arkle....but they'll probably all stay at 2m, until beaten, then they'll go up in trip... which makes sense with what Q is saying, where they'll go Irish Arkle, sort themselves out and anything beaten may go up in trip, or be deemed not good enough to go.



At the moment, you'd want to be on all of them, before they sort themselves out... unless you're convinced Ferny Hollow is head and shoulders above.

Exactly.
It's not out of the question that Blue Lord beats Ferny in Dublin, and they think about taking on Bob Olinger with him instead.
That would fuck with people's heads.
He may not run them all in Dublin for whatever reason, but he usually does.

[Rooster Booster]

This is the same before Dublin in most years though !

Yep well I certainly don’t want to hijack this thread but having the DRF answers just a few too many questions for my liking and tbh wait until after the DRF could be a cut and pasted answer to a number of race threads and that isn’t aimed at you in any way Q. With the domination of the Irish wait till Cheltenham has become wait till the DRF to some extent and I’m not sure I like it. It’s just a personal view and a million miles from a right/wrong judgement.

[Quevega]

Yep well I certainly don’t want to hijack this thread but having the DRF answers just a few too many questions for my liking and tbh wait until after the DRF could be a cut and pasted answer to a number of race threads and that isn’t aimed at you in any way Q. With the domination of the Irish wait till Cheltenham has become wait till the DRF to some extent and I’m not sure I like it. It’s just a personal view and a million miles from a right/wrong judgement.

Not sure what you're trying to say.
I read it twice.