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Originally posted by DenmanSacre
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Thanks for that. On that basis, I’ve had a little of the 5/2 about BL to place. Great value in my view. -
I hope so too. Cannot see him beating BobO, but I do think he could go very close in the Arkle from what I saw the other day with a tad more experience behind himOriginally posted by Benjy23 View PostComment
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On the basis that Willie has run 2 horses in this once in 20 years, Blue Lord can't be value at 5/2 to place, history tells us he's extremely unlikely to even run.Originally posted by Exar Essay View Post
Those place bets can be mustard, but the target has to be unquestionable IMO in order to find value.Comment
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Ideally, yes. But there aren't many like that though, are there? Sharjah and TMSG are the ones that spring to mind. But otherwise, the longer priced ones do tend to include an element of uncertainty re target. In fact, several of the ones I've seen discussed on here as offering the best value including Gerri Colombe, Concertista etc. have uncertain targets.Originally posted by charlie View PostComment
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Just reviewing my book here
is there a chance that this race is totally run to suit edwardstone if ferny hollow and third time lucky take each other on up front as both look potential headcases albeit ferny really really talented
currently no exposure to edwardstone - possibly also the chance that not 8 runners so more advantageous ew terms nowComment
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Yep, I would say it will definitely suit Edwardstone if the likely runners turn up. Their will be shed load of pace and the way he travels and jumps the race will be perfect for him.
Then it’s simply a case of whether he’s good enough.Comment
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Interested to see what tactics they go for with Blue Lord today. He's another that's potentially better from the front to be honest. But could be a good opportunity to try and drop him in, as the other two in the race both have form when leading.Comment
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You'd really like to think that Harry has learnt his lesson and will drop in on TTL.Originally posted by Bunkoffearly View PostComment
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He does it so often I don't think he will learn that lesson. He either goes too hard from the front at a stupid pace or goes too early when travelling well and doesn't last home.Originally posted by Captain Chris View PostComment
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I'm not sure I'd be changing tactics on TTL. If he runs similarly to his first chase where he winged everything, the others had better jump equally as well or they'd struggle to make up ground on him. A mistake or two in a truly run Arkle is usually enough to stop a horse winning, and mistakes usually come when you're trying to make up ground.
Do I see him as the most likely winner? No. But I think those are the tactics that give him the best possible chance. Dropping in behind Ferny Hollow and Edwardstone doesn't seem to be the best play at all. He has the all important course and distance winning form that the others don't, so surely they repeat the same tactics deployed. I doubt any of the others would want t lose their race taking him on for the lead, so he's likely to be able to dictate his own pace.Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.Comment
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Yes, he has to bowl along, in the Arkle, and if he can be more controlled when bowling along that would give him the chance to stay on to the line better.Originally posted by Spectre View Post"Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".Comment
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Didn’t seem to me either run this season to have that much left to get up the hill, so think you’re right Harry needs to be more controlled & save a little something.Originally posted by Saxon Warrior View Post
Actually, think it’s Harry that Harry need to be more in control of!Comment
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That’s the key. Think HS tends to get carried away(literally!!) when riding these sorts. As said , if he can front run and do it sensibly not affecting his jumping , he could well get a few at it earlier than they would like.Originally posted by Saxon Warrior View Post
I love to see a horse with that style of running in 2m chases.
Helps provide a spectacle and a proper run race.
He will be on my side anyway.Comment
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Folks don’t forget this is also a possible target for For Pleasure and he only has one way and they have said he will not be restrained. If anything is close to him early and not settling they are going to have to be some horse to get home (which of course FH could well be
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Blue lord as easy as you likeComment
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