2022 Arkle

[charlie]

Yeah Id say it happened quick enough re into coming out.

The problem I would have, is when did the setback occur? Is the Punchestown niggle thats flared up or never corrected itself? Were likely to never know, but as recent as the weekend he said he would be running over Xmas. With that said it must have been a gallop or piece of work within the last couple of days, you would hope. Was it earlier and he had hoped to have him back fit enough to run at Xmas but turned out he couldn’t. If he was injured earlier than the start of the week why has he said he’ll run over Xmas?

Pretty much the exact same scenario happened last year with BDD so I took the no entries as, something isn’t right. Thankfully it paid off, sorry to those that didn’t/couldn’t but it’s a judgement call. You’ll fall on the right side sometimes and the wrong side sometimes.

When a horse tears or breaks something, or does something major, it's easy to pinpoint when it occurred, and trainers are usually good at reporting it (given the vet knows, the vets staff know, the groom knows which mean the stable staff know, the owners know, the owners close friends know etc etc, and with WhatsApp and social media, news spreads fast).

Minor injuries, niggles and small set backs are seldom black and white, which is something punters often have a 'problem' with, but thats just equine physiology. Horses pick up innocuous injuries all the time, joint inflammation, being kicked and just a little sore, viral infection etc. These minor issues sometimes cascade into more serious issues, which might be exacerbated during work or a treatment not working etc, but pin pointing when that happens, and the extent of how damaging it might be, is extremely difficult for the stable team, yet punters get annoyed when dates of these setbacks aren't pinpointed and reported in a timely manner. Expecting this IMO shows a complete disconnect from understanding the realities of how managing health issues in horses work.

Also, think of how ridiculous it would be logistically for Willie with 200+ horses to report every knock, every days box rest, every infection, every sore joint etc etc. It would be ridiculous.

[charlie]

Even in the scenario of it being 48 hours... That's more than long enough in the age of social media. Guarantee the team will have done multiple interviews since then with ample chance to mention it as as well. On racecourse and off.

But it's obviously been an issue for longer than 48 hours hasn't it. You don't genuinely believe the horse picked up a problem and they decided to stay hurdling in the space of the last 48 hours do you? That's crazy. It's not the first time this has happened either is it. And it clearly won't be the last.

See my latest post.

[ComplyOrDie]

He wasn't declared for multiple targets, took a walk in the market and then was announced to have had a setback all in the space of less than 48 hours. Rubbish IMO to say information has got out for longer than acceptable.

He took a walk on the exchanges back end of November, no smoke without fire as they say, and whether you, or I, think otherwise, it has been proven in this case.

[Quevega]

He took a walk on the exchanges back end of November, no smoke without fire as they say, and whether you, or I, think otherwise, it has been proven in this case.

That settled down fairly quickly though.
Cos i saw your post and began watching.
And wasn't it around the time Ferny Hollow got an entry and he didn't ?

[ComplyOrDie]

That settled down fairly quickly though.
Cos i saw your post and began watching.
And wasn't it around the time Ferny Hollow got an entry and he didn't ?

Yeah, literally after I posted it someone put up a price for a lay (probably testing the waters). There was a fair bit on the 'back' side at one point though that some were trying to get rid of. I didn't mention this as I had already taken action on my bets and couldn't deal with the hysteria it sometimes creates by noting these things. It happens to many horses during the season, some are more noticeable than others.

[jack1092]

Even in the scenario of it being 48 hours... That's more than long enough in the age of social media. Guarantee the team will have done multiple interviews since then with ample chance to mention it as as well. On racecourse and off.

But it's obviously been an issue for longer than 48 hours hasn't it. You don't genuinely believe the horse picked up a problem and they decided to stay hurdling in the space of the last 48 hours do you? That's crazy. It's not the first time this has happened either is it. And it clearly won't be the last.

Firstly i'm not saying that certainly happened, butttt why is it crazy?

There's clearly been ground issues which has delayed him and others running. The ground problems have forced trainers to delay proper work of their horses, and sometimes you don't find a problem with a horse until they are properly worked?

Not sure i get you....

[Benjy23]

Replace 'crazy' with 'unlikely' if you like. Apologies if that wasn't worded respectfully. All a matter of opinion isn't it. You're entitled to your opinion that Appreciate It hasn't done a piece of work until the last 48 hours due to the weather. Again I'll put that in the 'unlikely' box.

I'm not going to lie, I thought everyone would be in favour of more openness in communication from trainers (and even owners). I now appreciate that was wrong and regret starting the conversation.

Probably best to focus on those that are running in the Arkle now. That's what I'll be doing.

Jacob on Blue Lord do we think?

[Black Dog]

No matter how or when AI became unfit,it did give this forum an advantage betting-wise. The lack of xmas entries gave all on here a window of opportunity to cash out (if possible) or to let it ride. A big decision for sure,but a choice nontheless.

[Quevega]

No matter how or when AI became unfit,it did give this forum an advantage betting-wise. The lack of xmas entries gave all on here a window of opportunity to cash out (if possible) or to let it ride. A big decision for sure,but a choice nontheless.

Correct.
The clues were there.
It's happened before with Saldier, BDD, and others that were less focussed upon.
The lack of a Christmas entry unless we know of a good reason why.

[Atlantic Viking]

Interesting(ish) that Willie says Ferny Hollow didn't have a tendon injury, it was his back. Might already be known but it's the first i'd heard.

[Atlantic Viking]

Willie talked a little bit about Blue Lord. Thinks he'll be a better chaser than hurdler, has more regard for his fences than his hurdles. Christmas might be a bit soon. Having seen his recent run he doesn't feel in too much of a hurry.

[Lobos]

Interesting(ish) that Willie says Ferny Hollow didn't have a tendon injury, it was his back. Might already be known but it's the first i'd heard.

Didn't think it was first reported as a tendon? Thought they said he'd fractured his pelvis?

[Atlantic Viking]

Didn't think it was first reported as a tendon? Thought they said he'd fractured his pelvis?

No idea, can't remember if he said it himself or if it was posed to him but that was what was said and that either way, the problem was actually his back.

[Lobos]

No idea, can't remember if he said it himself or if it was posed to him but that was what was said and that either way, the problem was actually his back.

Make it up as they go along don't they.

[thorne365]

No matter how or when AI became unfit,it did give this forum an advantage betting-wise. The lack of xmas entries gave all on here a window of opportunity to cash out (if possible) or to let it ride. A big decision for sure,but a choice nontheless.

exactly - this instance seems to have favoured punters completely - bookies obviously weren't privy to any info that he wasn't going chasing [thus very likely to have been only just decided]