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Selfishly, Appreciate It staying over hurdles works well for my bets, but I still concede Ferny was backed on the short side and finds himself fortuitously at the top of the market by reputation, more than anything else. Fernys jumping will need to improve. Blue Lord doesn't do it for me.
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Last edited by charlie; 21 December 2021, 04:56 PM. -
Cheers Q, I thought that was the case and had taken it into account when backing her earlier today, but when I googled it, it left me a bit confusedOriginally posted by Quevega View Post
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Is this what you meant to write charlie or are you talking about Ferny ?Originally posted by charlie View PostComment
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And that right there is why Mullins is a bigger mug than Hendo. The exchanges have suggested this happening for 2 days before it's announced.
Considering it great news for Blue Lord. Just frustrated for any AI backers.Last edited by Benjy23; 21 December 2021, 06:13 PM.Comment
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There was movement back at the end of November, as per my diary post. He was matched at 6 on the exchanges with no money to lay. I now don't think that was just coincidence and don't think it was just this past week or so that the decision was made.Originally posted by Benjy23 View PostComment
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Originally posted by Quevega View Post
It clearly is true like but each to their own. I literally posted about it at the time and it seems others picked up vibes even earlier. No point discussing though as it's a subject people are clearly stuck in their ways with. It's all good.
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I wouldn’t be surprised if this setback happened some time ago, it might explain the lack of entries, the drift on the machine, and crucially the confidence behind Ferny Hollow who had halved in price in the past 2/3 weeks…Originally posted by Benjy23 View PostComment
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Not necessarily Mullins (almost certainly not in fact) at play in the market though it’s important to remember, yard staff, work riders etc will get to know and at that point surely it’s too much temptation not to.
If you’ve got information the market at large isnt privy to isn’t it just human nature to use that information?Comment
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Don't get me wrong I'd be amazed if it's Mullins has any involvement in the betting, it shouldn't be enough money to even interest him. As you say it'll be from his staff or even people his staff have told, potentially even in general conversation without any betting intent from their side. Information has clearly got out for longer than acceptable though. Mullins is the main man, so should be going public with any issues as soon as possible imo.
Not specific to the Arkle market this. Champion Hurdle market showed people in the know.
Just clarifying, I don't want it to to sound like I'm accusing Mullins of some betting scandal. I only originally commented in relation to the Mullins / Henderson public information discussion...Last edited by Benjy23; 22 December 2021, 06:11 AM.Comment
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He wasn't declared for multiple targets, took a walk in the market and then was announced to have had a setback all in the space of less than 48 hours. Rubbish IMO to say information has got out for longer than acceptable.Originally posted by Benjy23 View PostComment
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Yeah I’d say it happened quick enough re into coming out.Originally posted by charlie View Post
The problem I would have, is when did the setback occur? Is the Punchestown niggle that’s flared up or never corrected itself? We’re likely to never know, but as recent as the weekend he said he would be running over Xmas. With that said it must have been a gallop or piece of work within the last couple of days, you would hope. Was it earlier and he had hoped to have him back fit enough to run at Xmas but turned out he couldn’t. If he was injured earlier than the start of the week why has he said he’ll run over Xmas?
Pretty much the exact same scenario happened last year with BDD so I took the no entries as, something isn’t right. Thankfully it paid off, sorry to those that didn’t/couldn’t but it’s a judgement call. You’ll fall on the right side sometimes and the wrong side sometimes.Comment
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Originally posted by charlie View Post
Even in the scenario of it being 48 hours... That's more than long enough in the age of social media. Guarantee the team will have done multiple interviews since then with ample chance to mention it as as well. On racecourse and off.
But it's obviously been an issue for longer than 48 hours hasn't it. You don't genuinely believe the horse picked up a problem and they decided to stay hurdling in the space of the last 48 hours do you? That's crazy. It's not the first time this has happened either is it. And it clearly won't be the last.Comment
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Yep the no entry on the 26th was enough for most people to take their chances cos i did, probably not even yard money as it was peanuts.
and have been watching the exchange since sunday night.
barely any money exchanged hands until the announcement, or just before.
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