2022 Arkle

[Spectre]

Don't want to sidetrack the thread...

I get that roughly 1lb a length is a standard measure, but has there ever been a study into all tracks, their race distances and ground conditions to see what a "normal" spread is. It seems that certain courses lend themselves to wide margin winners more than others and that this should be taken into account.

For example (with no proof, just a hypothetical example), Haydock chases over 3m+ on soft/heavy may produce an average winning distance of 10 lengths, with another 8 back to 3rd and 4th. Whereas the distances may be half of that in similar conditions at Newbury. So applying 1lb a length in both examples wouldn't make sense and lead to inflated ratings for Haydock winners

I'm not picking on Bristol de Mai, I promise . There may be no difference between tracks (unlikely) and I'm sure a study like this will have been done at some point.

I agree that it's important to understand that ratings are subjective, and taking your own view of them is important.

I apply my own ratings to horses that are climbing the ladder, and always de-rate anything that wins by a wide margin at Haydock and Ascot.

I use RPR's as a guide first and then look at why they might be right or wrong, and hopefully I can find and edge at some point by adding to or taking away from the the RPR first and the official rating second.

I've not seen a study on ratings at different courses, or a ratings service that applies them differently. In some ways it's better that there isn't though, as the betting advantage because of the subjectivity in them would potentially be lost.

[Spectre]

The history of that Sandown race leads to Big numbers.

Allmankind was given 163 RPR for his win there last season and he was beaten 13 lengths in the Arkle.

Ar Mad was RPR 164 for his win at Sandown (when officially rated 130 pre-race).

The trainers Sceau Royal was given 166 for a win at Sandown but missed the Festival that season.

The top in the last 10 years in the race was Altiors 169.
He is the only Arkle winner to win the Sandown race along the way in those 10 years.

Edwardstone 164

Allmankind 163
Esprit Du Large 157
Dynamite Dollars 161
Sceau Royal 166
Altior 169
Ar Mad 164
Vibrato Voltat 150
Hinterland 157
Captain Conan 150
Al Ferof 154

This is because the OH applies a par to race and works from that. As can be seen that's been creeping up each season, but the reality is it doesn't compare well to what Irish horses are given and then what they go on to achieve. The par for the race is patently too high.

[Saxon Warrior]

This is because the OH applies a par to race and works from that. As can be seen that's been creeping up each season, but the reality is it doesn't compare well to what Irish horses are given and then what they go on to achieve. The par for the race is patently too high.

Horribly high.
To justify it being a Grade 1.

We will probably get the same big ratings from the Tolworth, Challow and Scilly Isles NovCh, all mid-season Grade 1 races in England and all awful at highlighting Festival winners.

Tolworth - 1 non-Irish Festival Grade 1 winner in 10yrs (Yorkhill came over to win one)

Challow- zero

Scilly Isles - one

Thats 3 in 40 British Grade 1 winners that go on and win their Grade 1 at the Festival, 2 or 3 months later in the last 10 years.

Thats an appalling stat from the 4 Grade 1 Novice races we hold before Cheltenham.

Maybe there really shouldn't be 3 of the 4 of them at Sandown, its hardly proving a successful race route, nor justifying retaining Grade 1 status for those races.

The best British horses must have been avoiding those races for years, as we've won 15 of the 40 Novice Grade ones at the Festival over 2M and 2M4F in that same time period.

[Quevega]

Horribly high.
To justify it being a Grade 1.

We will probably get the same big ratings from the Tolworth, Challow and Scilly Isles NovCh, all mid-season Grade 1 races in England and all awful at highlighting Festival winners.

Tolworth - 1 non-Irish Festival Grade 1 winner in 10yrs (Yorkhill came over to win one)

Challow- zero

Scilly Isles - one

Thats 3 in 40 British Grade 1 winners that go on and win their Grade 1 at the Festival, 2 or 3 months later in the last 10 years.

Thats an appalling stat from the 4 Grade 1 Novice races we hold before Cheltenham.

Maybe there really shouldn't be 3 of the 4 of them at Sandown, its hardly proving a successful race route, nor justifying retaining Grade 1 status for those races.

The best British horses must have been avoiding those races for years, as we've won 15 of the 40 Novice Grade ones at the Festival over 2M and 2M4F in that same time period.

They should move a couple of them to the end of January.
Either the friday before cheltenham trials day or the Sunday.
Could still run at the same course (sandown)
But at least the timings better for all horses to have had a couple of runs and for the spring festivals after.

It clearly benefited the Irish by combing two big race days and changing it to first weekend of Feb.

[Saxon Warrior]

They should move a couple of them to the end of January.
Either the friday before cheltenham trials day or the Sunday.
Could still run at the same course (sandown)
But at least the timings better for all horses to have had a couple of runs and for the spring festivals after.

It clearly benefited the Irish by combing two big race days and changing it to first weekend of Feb.

That makes much more sense than the shitshow that we have from Decembers 3 Grade 1 Novices.
The Scilly Isles is already early Feb - that’s generally been poor re Festival winners, maybe a bigger prize for each of the 4 races, might make some come out of their stables and run, if it’s 6 or 7 weeks before Cheltenham.

[Istabraq]

The Scilly Isles is already early Feb - that’s generally been poor re Festival winners.

I do think considering the recent record of UK based G1s is a semi pointless task given the domination of Irish horses in recent seasons.
I know you have to go back a fair way but the likes of Best Mate, Young Hustler and Bradbury Star have won the Scilly Isles even if some of those names will be alien to some members….

[The Giant Bolster]

The history of that Sandown race leads to Big numbers.

Allmankind was given 163 RPR for his win there last season and he was beaten 13 lengths in the Arkle.

Ar Mad was RPR 164 for his win at Sandown (when officially rated 130 pre-race).

The trainers Sceau Royal was given 166 for a win at Sandown but missed the Festival that season.

The top in the last 10 years in the race was Altiors 169.
He is the only Arkle winner to win the Sandown race along the way in those 10 years.

Edwardstone 164

Allmankind 163
Esprit Du Large 157
Dynamite Dollars 161
Sceau Royal 166
Altior 169
Ar Mad 164
Vibrato Voltat 150
Hinterland 157
Captain Conan 150
Al Ferof 154

Really interesting analysis Istabraq and Saxon Warrior - the sort of thing I really enjoy about this forum. You make a strong case that Edwardstone is over-rated based on that run. I guess some of it comes down to personal position and approach on the race; I'm in a pretty good position with Appreciate It so look to cover rivals. I definitely missed the right price to cover Edwardstone before the Sandown race because I was sceptical that he was a real contender. Instead of being tempted to chase cover, I think it makes sense to continue to back that judgement still for now but be alert for any signs of the race falling apart.

[Saxon Warrior]

Really interesting analysis Istabraq and Saxon Warrior - the sort of thing I really enjoy about this forum. You make a strong case that Edwardstone is over-rated based on that run. I guess some of it comes down to personal position and approach on the race; I'm in a pretty good position with Appreciate It so look to cover rivals. I definitely missed the right price to cover Edwardstone before the Sandown race because I was sceptical that he was a real contender. Instead of being tempted to chase cover, I think it makes sense to continue to back that judgement still for now but be alert for any signs of the race falling apart.

Sit back and watch the 2M Grade 1 2-Mile Novice Chase in Ireland and Grade 2 at Kempton, it could shake up the front of the Arkle market some more.

[darlojim]

Ferny Hollow confirmed for the Racing Post Novice by Richard Thompson.

[Benjy23]

Be doing well to give basically a stone to Rivier Detel won't he. I wasn't that taken with some of his jumping on debut either and she might not hang around... Wouldn't be backing him at near evens personally.

[FinalFurlong91]

Be doing well to give basically a stone to Rivier Detel won't he. I wasn't that taken with some of his jumping on debut either and she might not hang around... Wouldn't be backing him at near evens personally.

Id think she'd beat him given she's more experienced and gets all that weight

[Benjy23]

Id think she'd beat him given she's more experienced and gets all that weight

Aye, 9/4 is probably fair enough.

Assume Appreciate It won't go. Bob Olinger won't go. Blue Lord probably not as well? Race will cut up quite a bit.

Is it actually her target?

[PresentingPercy]

Aye, 9/4 is probably fair enough.

Assume Appreciate It won't go. Bob Olinger won't go. Blue Lord probably not as well? Race will cut up quite a bit.

Is it actually her target?

She did run at Navan at the beginning of December as the owners were going to be abroad at Christmas so wouldn't get to see them run, so I don't know if Leopardstown is going to be high on the agenda? The Bosses Oscar is pencilled in for the PP H'cap Chase over the xmas however so they prob still will have runners. Just something to bear in mind. 9/4 will most likely shorten if its confirmed she will show up. She's a very smart young mare over fences and still getting the allowances.

[On The Fringe]

Is it actually her target?

I recall Gordon saying that her owners were on holiday over Christmas so their horses wouldn't be running. Can't remember where it said that put I'll try and find it...

[FinalFurlong91]

Aye, 9/4 is probably fair enough.

Assume Appreciate It won't go. Bob Olinger won't go. Blue Lord probably not as well? Race will cut up quite a bit.

Is it actually her target?

Blue lord might

He didnt really have much of a race the other day

Just jogged around and was never really asked for much of an effort

Probably unlikely though