2022 Arkle

[Lbur4288]

….For Pleasure did win impressively today, I looked immediately for an a/r price but the only one I can see is 12-1 with Sky which is hardly tempting.

There is a Sky RaB to win the Grand Annual @ 16-1 & another to win the Coral Cup @ 25-1.

I backed For Pleasure with the Sky offer on the Supreme this year just because of how hard he goes off, more in the hope that he won in the manner he beat Third Time Lucki (or even Nassalam over fences today) but I'd be wary of backing him for any race at Cheltenhan. Alex Hales was mentioning Aintree as a long term target, I'm not sure if that'd mean skipping Cheltenham but he didn't really touch on that from what I read (could be wrong but I only read bits).

[Eggs]

I backed For Pleasure with the Sky offer on the Supreme this year just because of how hard he goes off, more in the hope that he won in the manner he beat Third Time Lucki (or even Nassalam over fences today) but I'd be wary of backing him for any race at Cheltenhan. Alex Hales was mentioning Aintree as a long term target, I'm not sure if that'd mean skipping Cheltenham but he didn't really touch on that from what I read (could be wrong but I only read bits).

….interviewed trainer & owner today & I didn’t get the impression they had any inclination to skip the Festival. It was more about which race they might target with ?50k bonus from todays win.

[Quevega]

….interviewed trainer & owner today & I didn’t get the impression they had any inclination to skip the Festival. It was more about which race they might target with ?50k bonus from todays win.

Who puts up the bonus ?
Getting mugged off really with a turn out like that.
2 runners in the race last year but not sure the bonus was in play.

[Istabraq]

Who puts up the bonus ?.

Always used to be put up by Plumpton racecourse, don’t believe there’s any outside sponsorship contribution…

[Mighty]

I think it’s the racecourse - more details here - found out about it when I went to their September meeting this year.

https://www.plumptonracecourse.co.uk...-bonus-series/ :

The series began in the 2000/01 season with the aim of trying to attract top horses to run at Plumpton before going onto stardom at the Cheltenham Festival. In all of these seasons, there has only been one winner and that was Voy Por Ustedes who won a Novice Chase at Plumpton on December 12^th, 2005 before winning the Arkle at Cheltenham on 14^thMarch, 2006 at odds of 15/2. This was for owner Sir Robert Ogden, trainer Alan King and jockey Robert “Choc” Thornton.

This means there has been 15 years of no winners despite the series being run in all of those seasons, but there have been a few close calls with notable 2^nd places the festival for Baron Alco in 2017, Top Notch in 2016 and Uxizandre in 2014 after winning their bonus races here.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I backed For Pleasure with the Sky offer on the Supreme this year just because of how hard he goes off, more in the hope that he won in the manner he beat Third Time Lucki (or even Nassalam over fences today) but I'd be wary of backing him for any race at Cheltenhan. Alex Hales was mentioning Aintree as a long term target, I'm not sure if that'd mean skipping Cheltenham but he didn't really touch on that from what I read (could be wrong but I only read bits).

I might be wary of backing him at certain odds, but 66 I will take a chance

[Lbur4288]

I might be wary of backing him at certain odds, but 66 I will take a chance

No that is fair, not one for me but I can see both sides of the argument.

[Exar Essay]

Wrong thread

[Run4Home]

Appreciate It

Mullins also confirmed he plans to give Appreciate It a first start over fences in a Beginners Chase over the holiday period while another Cheltenham winner, Sir Gerhard, will line up in a maiden hurdle.

[Madmoose]

Has Dusart had a setback do we know as that novice chase on Friday as Ascot he wasn’t entered and the yard won the last two with Allart and Angels Breath.

[The Giant Bolster]

I've started wondering whether I've underestimated Edwardstone.

He's been given an RPR of 164 for his last win. This feels pretty significant. In the last five years, only six horses have had a 164+ RPR run going into the Arkle:

Altior	175
Shishkin	172
Footpad	168
Allmankind	166
Saint Calvados	165
Duc Des Genievres	164

Obviously four of those won and the other two were beaten by Shishkin and Footpad. So only two Arkle's in the last five years have even featured two horses who recorded 164+ going into the race.

So it feels like Edwardstone has already put down a standard that will require a superstar to beat him. I personally think Appreciate It has a great chance to be that star and Ferny Hollow could be (154 RPR on his debut suggests he has work to do). Dusart really interests me still but I worry he hasn't run yet. But essentially I think the bet at 8-1 for Edwardstone is now that these two don't make the Festival and/or aren't Shishkin/Altior/Footpad standard over fences. I don't think anything else we've seen is at that standard. I don't think those are terrible odds; I'll be aiming to get him on side in the coming weeks.

[Istabraq]

I've started wondering whether I've underestimated Edwardstone.

He's been given an RPR of 164 for his last win. This feels pretty significant. In the last five years, only six horses have had a 164+ RPR run going into the Arkle:

Firstly, I was a big Edwardstone fan and got some nice prices on him before the Henry VIII, however, I think the RPR of 164 he was given is inflated.
I've been anti Third Time Lucki (for this race) all season and I think it's the RPRs awarded to that horse for beating up on poor fields that have forced the RP to give Edwardstone such a lofty rating.
Edwardstone had two years hurdling and was ultra consistent, in his ten runs he was allocated RPRs of between 141 (debut) and 152 (a mark he received twice), his official rating ranged between 141 and 149 and although his higher marks were given in his final runs I wouldn't be massively confident he has has improved 12lb for fences.
As I say, I think it's the inflated marks given to Third Time Lucki that have led to his Sandown rating.
Right now I'd say he's the best of the UK horses (for this) and it's hard to see anything else challenging him on that front unless My Drogo drops back which I wouldn't see as likely, but there are potentially 3/4 horses from the other side of the Irish Sea who have similar chances and of course if Appreciate It eventually gets out of his box and shows the world he can jump a fence then he's be a very warm order, I'd go so far as to say Edwardstone couldn't live with a healthy Appreciate It, throw in Blue Lord who was given RPR 149 for his chase debut, he could improve to Edwardstone's level, Riviere D'etel was talked up last year and with that priceless Mares allowance she has to enter discussions as does Magic Daze, and of course there's Ferny Hollow who has been heavily supported in recent days.
Mullins is unlikely to run three but he could run two, and when I considered all the possibles a few weeks ago I came to the conclusion 33s/25s was a decent each way play without really thinking he could win the race, but of course if Appreciate It doesn't get out of his box and Ferny Hollow bounces/disappoints then his claims improve.
I'm happy to be sitting on 33/1 and 25/1 vouchers but if I hadn't played already I don't think I'd be getting involved at 8s or whatever he is now, the one thing in your favour if you are looking to get involved is that he can't head down the handicap route, he can't reasonably be stepped up in trip, so he should all being well be headed here, and as we know this race often cuts up into a small field but for win purposes I think we need the Irish to disappoint...

[Saxon Warrior]

Firstly, I was a big Edwardstone fan and got some nice prices on him before the Henry VIII, however, I think the RPR of 164 he was given is inflated.
I've been anti Third Time Lucki (for this race) all season and I think it's the RPRs awarded to that horse for beating up on poor fields that have forced the RP to give Edwardstone such a lofty rating.
Edwardstone had two years hurdling and was ultra consistent, in his ten runs he was allocated RPRs of between 141 (debut) and 152 (a mark he received twice), his official rating ranged between 141 and 149 and although his higher marks were given in his final runs I wouldn't be massively confident he has has improved 12lb for fences.
As I say, I think it's the inflated marks given to Third Time Lucki that have led to his Sandown rating.

Ista,

I think you’ve hit the nail on the head.

3TL has regressed on his Chase runs this season, and the overall the form for RPR 164 for Edwardstone is based on beating War Lord 16 lengths, and basing War Lord to running up to RPR 150 for the second race running, and not regressing/running a poorer race.

I would believe Edwardstone is that good if/when he does that again.

In the meantime I’m erring on the side of caution on that RPR.

Handicappers seem to like to finding a “base horse” in each race, who they say ran to form, exactly, from one race to the next, and then rate horses around it.

Thats can be a flawed system, at times, in my view, and it can lead to big race ratings in races where there is a clear winner.

Its not a perfect system, but it’s a pretty damn good one, but one where we should always add our own assessment of a horses performance and rating.

[Captain Chris]

Don't want to sidetrack the thread...

I get that roughly 1lb a length is a standard measure, but has there ever been a study into all tracks, their race distances and ground conditions to see what a "normal" spread is. It seems that certain courses lend themselves to wide margin winners more than others and that this should be taken into account.

For example (with no proof, just a hypothetical example), Haydock chases over 3m+ on soft/heavy may produce an average winning distance of 10 lengths, with another 8 back to 3rd and 4th. Whereas the distances may be half of that in similar conditions at Newbury. So applying 1lb a length in both examples wouldn't make sense and lead to inflated ratings for Haydock winners

I'm not picking on Bristol de Mai, I promise . There may be no difference between tracks (unlikely) and I'm sure a study like this will have been done at some point.

[Saxon Warrior]

I've started wondering whether I've underestimated Edwardstone.

He's been given an RPR of 164 for his last win. This feels pretty significant. In the last five years, only six horses have had a 164+ RPR run going into the Arkle:

Altior	175
Shishkin	172
Footpad	168
Allmankind	166
Saint Calvados	165
Duc Des Genievres	164

Obviously four of those won and the other two were beaten by Shishkin and Footpad. So only two Arkle's in the last five years have even featured two horses who recorded 164+ going into the race.

So it feels like Edwardstone has already put down a standard that will require a superstar to beat him. I personally think Appreciate It has a great chance to be that star and Ferny Hollow could be (154 RPR on his debut suggests he has work to do). Dusart really interests me still but I worry he hasn't run yet. But essentially I think the bet at 8-1 for Edwardstone is now that these two don't make the Festival and/or aren't Shishkin/Altior/Footpad standard over fences. I don't think anything else we've seen is at that standard. I don't think those are terrible odds; I'll be aiming to get him on side in the coming weeks.

The history of that Sandown race leads to Big numbers.

Allmankind was given 163 RPR for his win there last season and he was beaten 13 lengths in the Arkle.

Ar Mad was RPR 164 for his win at Sandown (when officially rated 130 pre-race).

The trainers Sceau Royal was given 166 for a win at Sandown but missed the Festival that season.

The top in the last 10 years in the race was Altiors 169.
He is the only Arkle winner to win the Sandown race along the way in those 10 years.

Edwardstone 164

Allmankind 163
Esprit Du Large 157
Dynamite Dollars 161
Sceau Royal 166
Altior 169
Ar Mad 164
Vibrato Voltat 150
Hinterland 157
Captain Conan 150
Al Ferof 154