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2022 Arkle

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  • Originally posted by Atlantic Viking View Post

    How many fences has AI jumped in public? How much news have we had on him since he was pulled from his Punchestown run? Ferny beat Bob Olinger over hurdles, does AI have any form to match that? As things stand, AI has more to answer for me. It's 'wally' by the way.
    And it aint wally, not if your a londoner!

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    • Originally posted by Atlantic Viking View Post

      How many fences has AI jumped in public? How much news have we had on him since he was pulled from his Punchestown run? Ferny beat Bob Olinger over hurdles, does AI have any form to match that? As things stand, AI has more to answer for me. It's 'wally' by the way.
      I posted the latest about 2 hours ago on the thread.

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      • Did Gordon say anything post race about Riviere being aimed at the Grade 1 at Xmas? That’ll be interesting if she takes on Ferny Hollow there, would likely decide if Ferny is their Arkle horse or not before the DRF imo.

        I’m hoping appreciate it runs next weekend and then I think he’d go for the novice chase in Jan that Energumene won last year before going to the DRF. Gives him time between the beginners and then novice chase and then step up to graded company. The DRF ultimately deciding, if both win their respective races up to that point.

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        • Originally posted by Craigy14 View Post
          Did Gordon say anything post race about Riviere being aimed at the Grade 1 at Xmas? That’ll be interesting if she takes on Ferny Hollow there, would likely decide if Ferny is their Arkle horse or not before the DRF imo.
          Morans on holiday over Xmas so Riviere ran this weekend so they could see her. Probably won't be out over Christmas.

          With AI, he is now 7 going on 8 and so he may not have as much improvement from novice hurdling to novice chasing as others. However, based on last year, he probably doesn't need to have much improvement as he was clear of everything over 2m (obviously we can't tell how well Ferny would have done but his beating of BO over 2m was a great piece of form).

          Those behind him in the Supreme have disappointed since. The only one to win since is Soaring Glory and the form of that race isn't working out well. AI did trounce them but he does have questions and isn't the cert that some people believe he is.

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          • Originally posted by DenmanSacre View Post

            Morans on holiday over Xmas so Riviere ran this weekend so they could see her. Probably won't be out over Christmas.

            With AI, he is now 7 going on 8 and so he may not have as much improvement from novice hurdling to novice chasing as others. However, based on last year, he probably doesn't need to have much improvement as he was clear of everything over 2m (obviously we can't tell how well Ferny would have done but his beating of BO over 2m was a great piece of form).

            Those behind him in the Supreme have disappointed since. The only one to win since is Soaring Glory and the form of that race isn't working out well. AI did trounce them but he does have questions and isn't the cert that some people believe he is.
            Did they ever say that she wouldn’t run as they were on holiday? Would seem daft to rule her out for a bit of sun, when it’s her best chance of winning a grade 1 she’ll ever have- you’d imagine anyway.

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            • Originally posted by jack1092 View Post

              Did they ever say that she wouldn’t run as they were on holiday? Would seem daft to rule her out for a bit of sun, when it’s her best chance of winning a grade 1 she’ll ever have- you’d imagine anyway.
              That’s what I would have thought too. Considering how much money they are spending in the sport, which is great, they’ll surely want to see some Grade 1 prizes.

              She’ll get a good bit of weight from Ferny at Xmas, should they both take up the engagement and will be her last chance to get the weight for age allowance.

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              • Originally posted by jack1092 View Post

                Did they ever say that she wouldn’t run as they were on holiday? Would seem daft to rule her out for a bit of sun, when it’s her best chance of winning a grade 1 she’ll ever have- you’d imagine anyway.
                Elliott said: “She’s a good mare. Whether we go for something at Christmas or not, I don’t know.

                “She’s had two runs now and Noel and Valerie are away on holidays for Christmas, we came here for that reason. We’ll see how she is and how she comes out of the race.

                “Denis said she’s actually become really relaxed when she gets to the front. They didn’t let her away and she jumped very professionally. I’m very happy with her.”

                That's on ATR. Leaving it open but she has had 3 runs now over fences (not sure why he said 2). They've not ruled it out but I wouldn't back her ante post for it.

                If she did turn up, I could see her beating Ferny with all of the allowances as she looks so natural over fences and is incredibly speedy.

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                • There aren't really any judgements to be made, or decisions on which race after that performance. It was a decent start from a novice, and he'll have learnt for next time. There would be no reason to be pushing him up in trip, and I'd be pretty sure that's the way it'll remain unless something happens on the racecourse to convince them that he needs further.

                  From a betting perspective I'd prefer to see Ferny in the Marsh, but if Willie keeps Appreciate It and Ferny Hollow apart as seems likely, I'd expect to see them both in the Arkle.

                  So given I like making money and not handing it over to the bookies without a run, I'll ignore what I want to happen and follow what I think will happen, and most likely after his next run I'll consider adjusting my position with an Arkle bias.
                  Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

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                  • Originally posted by Spectre View Post
                    From a betting perspective I'd prefer to see Ferny in the Marsh, but if Willie keeps Appreciate It and Ferny Hollow apart as seems likely, I'd expect to see them both in the Arkle.
                    Are you saying you think they’ll be kept apart Spectre? Or that they’ll both run in the Arkle? Couldn’t establish from the above

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                    • I think they'll be kept apart before the Arkle Dee Bee. My natural assumption therefore is that they'll both go to the Arkle because they'll be unbeaten (barring a fall), because of the lack of credible opposition.

                      Essentially neither horse will give Willie a reason to up them in trip.
                      Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

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                      • Originally posted by Spectre View Post
                        I think they'll be kept apart before the Arkle Dee Bee. My natural assumption therefore is that they'll both go to the Arkle because they'll be unbeaten (barring a fall), because of the lack of credible opposition.

                        Essentially neither horse will give Willie a reason to up them in trip.
                        Thanks Spectre that makes sense now. I’d settle for either as an Arkle winner but appreciate it stepping up would be my preference if either were to. I have quite a few combinations covered regardless having focused some early big doubles around these pair and Bob

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                        • Edwardstone goes to the top of Timeforms ratings for Novice Chasers on 159 after his Sandown blitz.

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                          • Ferney Hollow 5/1 into 100/30 today with Paddy Power/Betfair.

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                            • Originally posted by Lobos View Post
                              Ferney Hollow 5/1 into 100/30 today with Paddy Power/Betfair.
                              Has to be another red flag for Appreciate It backers…

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                              • Originally posted by Istabraq View Post

                                Has to be another red flag for Appreciate It backers…
                                Wonder if he’s had a setback…

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