2022 Arkle

[jono]

If Dusart runs in that Kempton race then I’ll probably back at 25/1. Given the likely lack of depth and Henderson’s record it makes sense. And that race would give a fair steer towards the Arkle based on previous.

But I’d be wary of doing it on the back of the Jennings piece.
He’s known to like a wild one.
Where a leap of faith is sometimes needed.
That’s his style, fair enough. And I don’t mind him.
But like has been said since Aintree everything seemed to suggest going up in trip

[Quevega]

If Dusart runs in that Kempton race then I’ll probably back at 25/1. Given the likely lack of depth and Henderson’s record it makes sense. And that race would give a fair steer towards the Arkle based on previous.

But I’d be wary of doing it on the back of the Jennings piece.
He’s known to like a wild one.
Where a leap of faith is sometimes needed.
That’s his style, fair enough. And I don’t mind him.
But like has been said since Aintree everything seemed to suggest going up in trip

Jennings enthusiasm and Henderson enthusiasm combined !!

Is so unedifying,

it's like trying to swallow a Jacobs cream cracker with a spoonful of cinnamon on top !!

[ComplyOrDie]

it's like trying to swallow a Jacobs cream cracker with a spoonful of cinnamon on top !!

Q, the beast of analogies

[Spectre]

Jennings enthusiasm and Henderson enthusiasm combined !!

Is so unedifying,

it's like trying to swallow a Jacobs cream cracker with a spoonful of cinnamon on top !!

[Istabraq]

Magic Daze given an RPR of 137 for her performance on Sunday, have to say I'm a little surprised by this, whilst a couple of those behind her need further the RP grader is effectively saying that everything in the race significantly underperformed which may well turn out to be true, but equally likely is that Magic Daze's performance will be seen as better than 137...

[Maxfield]

...........................

[Odin]

Magic Daze given an RPR of 137 for her performance on Sunday, have to say I'm a little surprised by this, whilst a couple of those behind her need further the RP grader is effectively saying that everything in the race significantly underperformed which may well turn out to be true, but equally likely is that Magic Daze's performance will be seen as better than 137...

In fairness, Riviere D'Etel was only given 143 and I don't think Magic Daze performance on the day was better than hers (albeit I think MD has a higher ceiling and was racing against more inferior opponents so potentially didn't have the opportunity to be 'better'), so I'm not sure they could have gone too much higher than 137 for MD. I do think MD will continue to improve though, whereas I think RDE may peak with the allowances and not in March.

[ToniC]

In fairness, Riviere D'Etel was only given 143 and I don't think Magic Daze performance on the day was better than hers (albeit I think MD has a higher ceiling and was racing against more inferior opponents so potentially didn't have the opportunity to be 'better'), so I'm not sure they could have gone too much higher than 137 for MD. I do think MD will continue to improve though, whereas I think RDE may peak with the allowances and not in March.

Didnt MD carry bags of weight more though?

[Odin]

Didnt MD carry bags of weight more though?

Yeah - my argument is more based around quality of horses beaten to be fair. In NH racing in particular, I put a massive bearing on that (for right or wrong) and getting a 130 rated horse out of their comfort zone is significantly more difficult than getting a 150 horse out of their comfort zone regardless of weight carried I'd argue.

[Istabraq]

Fair comments Odin
It's the assumption that multiple rivals all massively under performed that strikes me, presumably because they had a figure in mind for MD and had to lower marks of others in the race accordingly, suggests that the 137 given to MD may actually be the error, but I could easily be wrong....

[Cashew King]

Looking forward to seeing Boothill at Newbury next week. So lightly raced still falls into the ‘could be anything’ camp.

Fry was gutted it got beat in the Soaring Glory race. I’ve taken the 60/1 (50s with boost) at Ladbrokes on the hope he goes well next week.

[Odin]

Fair comments Odin
It's the assumption that multiple rivals all massively under performed that strikes me, presumably because they had a figure in mind for MD and had to lower marks of others in the race accordingly, suggests that the 137 given to MD may actually be the error, but I could easily be wrong....

Yep that could easily be the case Ista, but if she did get them all out of their comfort zone, it's not completely implausible that they all underperformed. As I say, I think it was an excellent performance from MD and I think she could improve at least another 10lb if she can replicate it against better horses (e.g. Cape/riviere) next time, just because of the quality of the competition. That's obviously the big if though.

Safe to say, I'm a lot happier with the arkle bet on her now than I was a couple of days ago regardless!

[Saxon Warrior]

In fairness, Riviere D'Etel was only given 143 and I don't think Magic Daze performance on the day was better than hers (albeit I think MD has a higher ceiling and was racing against more inferior opponents so potentially didn't have the opportunity to be 'better'), so I'm not sure they could have gone too much higher than 137 for MD. I do think MD will continue to improve though, whereas I think RDE may peak with the allowances and not in March.

Riviere D'etel 146, 9lb above Magic Daze.

So she should be too, as she won a Grade 2 by 21 lengths, not a Beginners Chase.

RPR's have been reduced for Cape Gentleman and Embittered by around 10lb each, to keep RD's figure down.
bearing in mind they both won a Grade 3 recently, the form looks strong to me, and probably they didnt both run 10lb worse at the same time, and RD is therefore better than the rating given.

She ought go for the John Durkan next time out, she get 16lbs from the geldings there.
Gordon may not take her there though.

Its her best chance to win a Grade 1 this season, before her age allowance disappears.

I would back her to win it, if Gordon says she goes there.

[Spectre]

She was the bet of the weekend, but it's worth considering that both Cape Gentleman and Embittered didn't want to get close to her. They will be running for most of the season with their handicap mark in mind. That I'm certain is the case for Embittered who was cruising in the Grand Annual and I cannot see him winning a race before March. Cape Gentleman dropping back in trip to two miles also suggests the same may be true for him. If anything I'd expect him to be contesting 3 mile races before the end of the season, and any races at two miles can only be for mark manipulation.

[Odin]

Rivieres 146 was definitely 143 earlier today/yesterday so it's interesting that they've revised it upwards. And I assume you mean the Drinmore rather than the John durkan Saxon Warrior ?

I think both races are really interesting from the perspective of performance repeatability. Both horses got into wonderful rhythms and ripped their fields apart - it's one of the best things to see in national hunt racing in my opinion. The big question is how they look against genuine tuned up two milers like Appreciate It and Third Time Lucki. It's definitely not a stretch to suggest they'll both find it much harder, but I hope MD in particular is up to the challenge!