2022 Arkle

[charlie]

For me the biggest asset for both Ferny Hollow & Bob Olinger is speed. To my eye Ferny Hollow's Champion Bumper was slowly run until the top of the hill from which point both he & Third Time Lucki cut through the field with ease from the back and Ferny Hollow was strongest at the finish. His maiden hurdle win was run at a crawl until the sprint up the home straight which saw himself & Bob Olinger take 50 lengths out of the field. I suspect that Bob Olinger improved for the better ground at Cheltenham where I've never seen a horse hit the line as hard (I thought Rachael Blackmore resembled a downhill skier desperately trying to avoid the barriers in the finishing chute). Bob Olinger clearly stayed the Ballymore trip and I reckon Ferny Hollow could too but I still see speed as their trump cards. Both would be legitimate candidates for the Champion Hurdle (still hoping Ferny Hollow is) and I think the quality of their fencing will be pivotal in determining potential chasing targets.

Well said that man, nailed it.

[Odin]

I'm not saying I think you're wrong... I'm very 50/50 at the minute. But to counter each of your points:

• He hasn't been seen at a track for what will be nearly a year, and he's only been seen jumping once, ever. He might be showing you loads at home and look very talented, but he wouldn't be the first horse to appear to be a different horse on the track, especially following an injury
• Very inexperienced... so why would you change the plans for your supreme winner (and a bloody good one at that) to accommodate him?
• See below
• Appreciate It wasn't seen as a two miler, but Willie has admitted he was shocked at how well he performed over that distance. He was the best 2m novice hurdler last year, Willie would be silly to not see him as a 2 miler now (granted he could also see him as a middle distance horse, or further)
• Cheveley have Ballyadam, obviously he disappointed first time but they do have a 2 miler
• Could use exactly the same argument for why you'd keep AI at 2 miles
• The evidence so far is sketchy at best, plus you have to factor in the experience AI has that FH not doesn't. I don't think you can say with any certainty that FH beats AI.

Also bonus counters...

• Only one horse has ever beaten Bob Olinger, if you want to seperate them, why not see if he can do it again?
• Willie has always said he thought FH would handle further, they're both versatile
• Horses who get bad injuries quite often get injured again. Imagine Willie sending AI up in trip, then having to change his plans again mid season to revert back because FH injured?
• Hasn't AI earned the right to at least find out if he is their best 2 mile chaser?

As I say, I'm not sold either way, but I would be utterly shocked if they didn't both start at 2 miles. And if Appreciate It doesn't get beat, then I can't see him going up in trip. For me, the only chance that Appreciate It goes to the Marsh is if Willie decides to let them go head to head this side of Christmas and Ferny beats him (or someone else I suppose, but I struggle to see who else would do it)

More than happy to have the debate as I could be wrong! Worth noting I base the majority of my thoughts on the known data we have at this point - hence my use of the word 'best' in quotation marks as its hearsay right now, but could be true based on past results (FH beat AI and BO before injury). To go through your points in order...

1. If he's not the same horse, this whole argument is a moot point. For me 10/1 is a price I'm happy to play at with confidence because if he turns up, he will be the horse he was (or near to) and will go off odds-on regardless of who else runs. If he isn't the same horse I don't believe he will turn up.
2. Remember, AI was re-routed after FH got injured. I'm working on the basis that you would put the horse you perceive to be your best in his optimal race... it was the Supreme last year, it makes sense it would be the Arkle this year. No reason why AI can't be re-routed down what they thought was his optimal path last year right? Just because a horse is winning doesn't mean it's running over its most optimal trip does it? (I think this covers a few of the points)
3. I'm not considering Ballyadam as a factor as on all known evidence (hurdles and chases) he can't jump in race conditions. I reserve the right to change that thought, but I can only bet now with the information I have (like all of us)
4. I'll mix a few together here.. AI has definitely earned the right to find out if he's the best 2m chaser and the Champion Chase argument to keep him at 2m is also fair - I just think FH (IF he's the horse he was) will prove better and therefore be aimed at Arkle and have bet as such. I expect both to start at 2m FWIW.
5. Finally the BO one is fair but AI hasn't raced him yet so who know if AI would beat him? Regardless, I'm outweighing it with my belief that Cheveley would want a CC horse given everything else they've got. I comfortably believe this is my shakiest argument given everything we know about Willie, but it's hardly an unreasonable thought process.

Just seen your last part after responding in points . I agree both start at 2m and think Ferny will beat him over that distance if they meet, hence AI moving up in distance. We gamble based on our beliefs at the end of the day and if you or anyone else is undecided which way to go at this point, that's absolutely fine - as it is with those that have decided the evidence points a different direction - I just like taking a stand when it seems obvious to me.

Also - full disclosure. I've had 1pt FREE on FH to win Marsh to cover my losses should he go there. That's all I'll have on him for that race until target is confirmed and I've seen him run.

[Dandrew99]

More than happy to have the debate as I could be wrong! Worth noting I base the majority of my thoughts on the known data we have at this point - hence my use of the word 'best' in quotation marks as its hearsay right now, but could be true based on past results (FH beat AI and BO before injury). To go through your points in order...

1. If he's not the same horse, this whole argument is a moot point. For me 10/1 is a price I'm happy to play at with confidence because if he turns up, he will be the horse he was (or near to) and will go off odds-on regardless of who else runs. If he isn't the same horse I don't believe he will turn up.
2. Remember, AI was re-routed after FH got injured. I'm working on the basis that you would put the horse you perceive to be your best in his optimal race... it was the Supreme last year, it makes sense it would be the Arkle this year. No reason why AI can't be re-routed down what they thought was his optimal path last year right? Just because a horse is winning doesn't mean it's running over its most optimal trip does it? (I think this covers a few of the points)
3. I'm not considering Ballyadam as a factor as on all known evidence (hurdles and chases) he can't jump in race conditions. I reserve the right to change that thought, but I can only bet now with the information I have (like all of us)
4. I'll mix a few together here.. AI has definitely earned the right to find out if he's the best 2m chaser and the Champion Chase argument to keep him at 2m is also fair - I just think FH (IF he's the horse he was) will prove better and therefore be aimed at Arkle and have bet as such. I expect both to start at 2m FWIW.
5. Finally the BO one is fair but AI hasn't raced him yet so who know if AI would beat him? Regardless, I'm outweighing it with my belief that Cheveley would want a CC horse given everything else they've got. I comfortably believe this is my shakiest argument given everything we know about Willie, but it's hardly an unreasonable thought process.

Just seen your last part after responding in points . I agree both start at 2m and think Ferny will beat him over that distance if they meet, hence AI moving up in distance. We gamble based on our beliefs at the end of the day and if you or anyone else is undecided which way to go at this point, that's absolutely fine - as it is with those that have decided the evidence points a different direction - I just like taking a stand when it seems obvious to me.

Also - full disclosure. I've had 1pt FREE on FH to win Marsh to cover my losses should he go there. That's all I'll have on him for that race until target is confirmed and I've seen him run.

I guess my reply was more just making the argument against. If Willie was to keep them separate prior to Cheltenham, I really don't know which way they'd go. About the only option I've ruled out in my head is them both going to the Marsh

I've changed my mind about what I think will happen about 50 times in the last 24 hours, so I think it's best to just let it unfold really. Only thing I'd say about your above points is that AI was never really rerouted was he? I agree that yes he was probably going to go up in trip at some point if Ferny hadn't got injured, but he was running over 2 miles anyway. Willie might well think he was wrong to think that 2m wasn't AIs optimal trip last season, and I actually think that the Arkle really suits a strong galloper rather than a horse with a turn of foot.

I guess my point really is, I don't know, Willie probably doesn't even know, so trying to work out which way they're going to go can't really be anything more than a guess at this stage.

[Lobos]

Has anyone thought that Mullins just might give Ferney an easy time over fences this season and then bring him to the top table all guns blazing next season. He can then gain the experience without the pressure. Could be the best way forward.

[Cunningham]

I’d be 50/50 on where these two go also, but is there not a chance they could both win their beginners then meet at each other at Xmas or the DRF to decide who goes where? Willie seems to have an embarrassment of riches even by his standards over all trips so some will have to face each other at some point. He ran 4 in the arkle at the DRF last season, granted not all of this calibre, but he isn’t afraid to do it.

[Hurdles or chasing]

Can see Appreciate starting off over 2 miles and bolting up and then going on to the Irish Arkle at Christmas and doing the same. What's going to get close to him in that?

Mullins will see no point in stepping him up after all he has done at 2m.

Bob Olinger will probably do the same in a beginners over 2m4 and then onto the Drinmore. I reckon Ferny Hollow will be tried over further as has already beaten BO and AI will have looked so impressive.

I still have it in my head that Mullins might throw Ferny Hollow in at the deep end over hurdles and if he comes up short go over fences.

[Istabraq]

Well said that man, nailed it.

Wait till HDB sends Bob O to the Browns Advisory and he outstays them all over 3m...

[charlie]

Wait till HDB sends Bob O to the Browns Advisory and he outstays them all over 3m...

I wouldn't mind that.

[Run4Home]

Its all up in the air - I think as usual both will start at 2 miles Ferny & AI and the horses almost dictate the targets themselves from there. A lot will depend on who jumps faster at 2m.

If we go back to Ferny v Bob I think it gets forgotten he beat Bob will 'relative' ease. Ferny hit the bar 2nd last & slightly stumbled after the last. Paul didn't touch Ferny, Rachael gave Bob a slap and Ferny was still pulling away at the line.

Obviously he has to come back from injury and when they meet it will likely be over further ; but he was well on top of Bob when they last met.

[Lobos]

I wouldn't mind that.

In the words of Kevin Keegan.....I'd absolutely love that

[Winging The Last]

Looks like Appreciate It is going the Arkle then

https://twitter.com/sportinglife/status/1454193573738463237?s=21

[Many Clouds]

Looks like Appreciate It is going the Arkle then

https://twitter.com/sportinglife/sta...738463237?s=21

Appreciate (Arkle) Ferny (Marsh) double a must then

[Lobos]

Looks like Appreciate It is going the Arkle then

https://twitter.com/sportinglife/sta...738463237?s=21

Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

[Spectre]

Watch Ferny's point, and you'll see why he's the more likely to go to the Marsh (or stay/go back over hurdles!).

[Quevega]

Looks like Appreciate It is going the Arkle then

https://twitter.com/sportinglife/sta...738463237?s=21

I cannot believe that no one on this forum has watched this clip and can let us know which horse's in what order, walk by !!
I'd like to know which ones looked confident.
Who looked cocky.
And most importantly, who wasn't there ???

And if no one can do this, then this forum is rubbish.