2022 Arkle

[Istabraq]

Not as in agreement with Ista with regards the hurdle rating though as it does looks like they arsed the horse about last season. and 144 over hurdles is more than adequate for a lot of arkle winners over the years. What did put me off him prior to the race Friday was the number of runs vs defeats he had, which does tie in with Ista's thoughts, in that he looked an exposed 144 hurdler.

Exposed hurdler is a fairer description Q that is correct, though I think much of the hurdle rating he had was that Skelton spent all season trying to get him on a winning mark for the County, in which he fell short, and then getting chinned 15l on his only G1 hurdle start.
Incidently, bar PTKO I can't think of an Arkle winner who wasn't rated 150+ over timber since the pig that won the renewal we do not speak of...

[Odin]

I agree to a point.
Although Allmankind was 4 years old, and his only defeat over fences ended up being in the arkle, and the jockey seemed to get his timings all wrong at the festival (some of his rides were ill judged pace wise) - He should really have come second in that arkle. And let's not forget that the Irish team for last years arkle really was fucking shite, as things can conspire against you.

Coincidentally, I've just been trying to fathom how Allmankind is rated 160 and short priced favourite for the Monet Garden Old Roan chase today ????
When he's running against the best handicapped horse in training , that's drifting like Sue Smith knows he's not even got out of bed this year yet.
Only a mug would back her horse today

This is just a prep for the northern boy to win the paddy power isn't it?

[Quevega]

Exposed hurdler is a fairer description Q that is correct, though I think much of the hurdle rating he had was that Skelton spent all season trying to get him on a winning mark for the County, in which he fell short, and then getting chinned 15l on his only G1 hurdle start.
Incidently, bar PTKO I can't think of an Arkle winner who wasn't rated 150+ over timber since the pig that won the renewal we do not speak of...

Yep, you're right.
Think I have a Gaultstat in my head about hurdle rating of 140+ required as a minimum, which PTKO also flattened.

[Spectre]

The fact that Allmankind could finish 4th in an Arkle makes the debate for backing TTL I'd say.

Firstly it illustrates it doesn't take too much to be in and around the places, and in the the case of Allmankind he was just out of his juvenile hurdling season, which is notoriously difficult, and he still managed to finish fourth.

Also irrespective of what the handicapper thought, at the end of there comparative novice/juvenile seasons my opinion is TTL was a better horse than AMK and starts from a higher baseline than AMK. RPR's agree with that position too. Essentially the 2020 Triumph Hurdle was overrated, and horses like AMK who finished third would have been beaten 20 lengths by Goshen who we know isn't at his best either left-handed or at Cheltenham.

Also based on his chase debut he is a much better jumper of a fence than AMK who looks like a car crash waiting to happen. TTL is also bred to do the job over fences, na dis likely to improve for seeing one being an Arcadio out of a Definite Article mare. Whereas you'd AMK has significantly less scope to improve, both on size and breeding.

Finally Dan Skelton trains both of them and Harry Skelton rides them, and just look at how they have talked about TTL. With a direct comparison to both horses you never heard them talking about AMK in the same way.

[Quevega]

This is just a prep for the northern boy to win the paddy power isn't it?

That would be great, as having missed the weekend just gone cos of Covid.
I'm booked for the Paddy Power.
If that happened, I'd be high fiving the whole crowd. I'd get ejected again. This time whilst sober.

[Spectre]

Exposed hurdler is a fairer description Q that is correct, though I think much of the hurdle rating he had was that Skelton spent all season trying to get him on a winning mark for the County, in which he fell short, and then getting chinned 15l on his only G1 hurdle start.
Incidently, bar PTKO I can't think of an Arkle winner who wasn't rated 150+ over timber since the pig that won the renewal we do not speak of...

Yes, TTL was definitely looked after for the County all season, and if he hadn't been I suspect we'd be looking at him having a hurdle mark in the 150's.

[Saxon Warrior]

Third Time Lucki

The times were faster than standard in the main on Friday, and therefore the Racing Post's Topspeed figures have given them all nothing better than average ratings, as they were dependent on the ground conditions on the day.

However.......
The jumping performance was like Footpad's first time out win, four years ago (RPR 155) and that led to a complete price collapse for the Arkle.

Dan Skelton was about as effusive as I have seen him post-race, maybe he's smarted a bit from all the "Top UK trainers are sissy's" talk, but he was straight to the point, he is going to the Grade 1 Novice Chase over 2M, in early December next time out, or after a race along the way - and then he will be back for the Arkle.

Its a breath of fresh air to hear one of the top trainers over here saying that.

I managed to get him into my Festival Arkle book in a double with a winner yesterday, with cashout, and I'm more likely to consider building upon that rather than leave it there.

When a horse jumps fences like that on debut, it makes me sit up and take notice.

[Istabraq]

Dan Skelton was about as effusive as I have seen him post-race, maybe he's smarted a bit from all the "Top UK trainers are sissy's" talk, but he was straight to the point, he is going to the Grade 1 Novice Chase over 2M, in early December next time out, or after a race along the way - and then he will be back for the Arkle.

Its a breath of fresh air to hear one of the top trainers over here saying that.

I don't disagree SW, a little more honesty and/or balls from UK trainers is always welcome, and it's interesting hearing him speak so bullishly.
Whilst I might belittle the horses chance in an Arkle, I know through the owner that they thought Allmankind had a serious chance of upsetting Shishkin last year so perhaps they see something in Third Time Lucki that exceeds what AMK had in his armoury.
Exciting yes, until they meet an Irish horse...

[Saxon Warrior]

I don't disagree SW, a little more honesty and/or balls from UK trainers is always welcome, and it's interesting hearing him speak so bullishly.
Whilst I might belittle the horses chance in an Arkle, I know through the owner that they thought Allmankind had a serious chance of upsetting Shishkin last year so perhaps they see something in Third Time Lucki that exceeds what AMK had in his armoury.
Exciting yes, until they meet an Irish horse...

They get a free hit in England in Grade 1 and 2 Novice Chases and Novice Hurdles because generally the Irish leave them to it.
It should make for a good preparation for the English, if (of course the horses are good enough), and if the trainers then run them in the Festival Grade 1s.

Allmankind should be going to the Ryanair and then to their end of season target the Melling Chase over 3M.
I hope they do go the Ryanair, he could be Britains best hope for the race, alongside stablemate Protektorat.

If neither goes there then the Irish will win it virtually unopposed.

[Hurdles or chasing]

Interesting to see how Mt Leinster gets on in the next. Always had a big reputation

[Lobos]

I don't disagree SW, a little more honesty and/or balls from UK trainers is always welcome, and it's interesting hearing him speak so bullishly.
Whilst I might belittle the horses chance in an Arkle, I know through the owner that they thought Allmankind had a serious chance of upsetting Shishkin last year so perhaps they see something in Third Time Lucki that exceeds what AMK had in his armoury.
Exciting yes, until they meet an Irish horse...

On Fridays performance he'll definitely be giving the Irish something to think about at least. I've watched his race again today and he looked even more impressive than he was in the flesh. Fantastic chasing debut. Made the Cheltenham fences look small. I'll have to add him now.

[Istabraq]

On Fridays performance he'll definitely be giving the Irish something to think about at least. I've watched his race again today and he looked even more impressive than he was in the flesh. Fantastic chasing debut. Made the Cheltenham fences look small. I'll have to add him now.

Not for me, his only credible opponent spent the entire back straight trying to run on the New Course.
Annual Invictus, a 136 rated chaser, broke the 20f course record two races later, so whilst the performance of Third Time Lucki may have been visually impressive for me it was more likely conditions suiting him.
Promising yes, but even allowing for usual improvement with chasing experience he would still be some way short of 3 or 4 Irish challengers...

[Lobos]

That was my immediate reaction too Ista but I'm having doubts now. It was a thrilling debut whatever the standard of his opponents. Time will tell .

[Istabraq]

That was my immediate reaction too Ista but I'm having doubts now. It was a thrilling debut whatever the standard of his opponents. Time will tell .

Yeah, I think that's an assumption that can be levied dozens of times over though, you could literally watch a pig race at Plumpton or Sedgefield full of 90 rated novice chase and the winner may be visually impressive but you have make a judgement whether you think the horse can improve to be a festival G1 winner, and this is where I just can't see TTL making that improvement.
2 x previous G1 runs have seen him well beaten, 7 hurdle runs with a best RPR of 146 and he gets a chase debut RPR of 155 which I can't help think is an overreaction...

[Madmoose]

Maybe get TTL in an ew roll up and think of getting him as a 66/1 bet as that angle could be value in a small field come the day.