2022 Arkle

[billymag]

could have won the Grand Annual head in chest off 143 , can finish 5th in the Arkle now , they don't make life easy for themselves English trainers

Plenty of money to win on way to the festival if he is the 5th best 2m novice chaser in training, winner of GA got ?46K for an ultra competitve hcp that they would need to base their season on, the race at Kempton at Xmas is worth about ?20k on its own and you might only get 5 runners turn up, so you can forgive them for not being too worried about the GA ?

[The Fellow]

i suppose so if you need the money , but for me personally i would rather have the winner of the GA or any race at the festival than finish 4th or 5th in the Arkle , i don't think the owners need the prize money that badly and they could have had plenty back from backing the beast , unless of course they believe their horse has the ability to win an Arkle then, good luck to them, go that way, and all the best of luck , i applaud their convictions , to be honest he looked quite nice today , and i have him in the book for any race at 20/1

[ComplyOrDie]

Hard to knock the performance of Third Time Lucki, IMO, but could argue about what he's actually beat, the 2nd fav ran absolutely no sort of race, for starters.

I suspect he'll be a typical Dan Skelton 2 mile chaser, winning plenty on the way to the festival, may well end up in the Arkle, but likely will come up short on the day.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Hard to knock the performance of Third Time Lucki, IMO, but could argue about what he's actually beat, the 2nd fav ran absolutely no sort of race, for starters.

I suspect he'll be a typical Dan Skelton 2 mile chaser, winning plenty on the way to the festival, may well end up in the Arkle, but likely will come up short on the day.

He didn't beat much at all but his jumping really impressed me. Definitely had the look of a decent 2 mile chaser. It wouldn't surprise me if he was best of the British come March.

[ComplyOrDie]

He didn't beat much at all but his jumping really impressed me. Definitely had the look of a decent 2 mile chaser. It wouldn't surprise me if he was best of the British come March.

Yeah, as I said, it's hard to knock his actual performance.

You may well be right regarding the British challengers, but I'd say that says more about the British runners than how good TTL actually is.

Anyone on at a decent E/W price would have to be happy enough for sure. Too short now for me. Although could see myself using a free bet or three on him purely as cover.

I'm just looking at the current market, I can see it being a seriously small field....again.

[callhimgamblor]

Ferny bumper form taken a boost with Third Time Lucki there too

I love this. Beat Appreciate It as well. Cracking race.

[The Fellow]

He didn't have a chase rating, the 143 was his hurdles mark.

that's true , but i asked the question to the handicappers a while back and as you can see from the reply below he could have protected that mark of low 140's quite easily if handicapping was their plan, which in hindsight it clearly isn't , i asked because i didn't know incidentally


Any horse that has a hurdle rating that hasn’t chased prev is automatically given the same rating This remains until the chase hcpping team decide to reduce or increase the rating depending on performance

Regards

Martin Greenwood
Steeplechase Team Leader
British Horseracing Authority

[Faugheen_Machine]

that's true , but i asked the question to the handicappers a while back and as you can see from the reply below he could have protected that mark of low 140's quite easily if handicapping was their plan, which in hindsight it clearly isn't , i asked because i didn't know incidentally


Any horse that has a hurdle rating that hasn’t chased prev is automatically given the same rating This remains until the chase hcpping team decide to reduce or increase the rating depending on performance

Regards

Martin Greenwood
Steeplechase Team Leader
British Horseracing Authority

Can a horse line up in a GA without running over fences beforehand? That's a new one to me if they could.

Regardless of the above, they couldn't realistically turn up in a GA without a good deal of chasing experience so would have been difficult to keep that mark regardless of how he was campaigned.

I just watched Dan Skelton's interview and he's obviously got high hopes for him. He surprised me just how well he did it today.

[The Fellow]

yeah i hear what your saying , Elliott could get a lb off , but Dan isn't that type is he , he was great today , the jumping was stand out as was the way he put distance between him and the field 2 or 3 out without much effort

[The Fellow]

and it was his first outing this season against rivals that had been out already , even more impressive

[Spectre]

I'm just catching up with everything after being at HQ the last couple of days.

I though Third Time Luckki was very impressive. The point that he beat nothing is fair enough, but the time of the race was very quick and his jumping was electric. I'm not for one second going to say he'll beat Appreciate It or Ferny Hollow, whichever one turns up here, in March but in two mile chases around the Old Course jumping and travelling is at a premium, and he just did exactly that, and it was on his chase debut over course and distance. I'm not sure what anyone else wants to see from a genuine Arkle contender.

I'm already on at the bigger price, but if I wasn't I'd really want to get him backed. Most Arkle's are small fields, often getting 3 places on antepost bets for 4-7 runner races, and irrespective of getting that advantage.

I'll be genuinely surprised if there are the better Arkle runners than him lining up next March, and a cursory look at the Arkle market and what is likely to turn up probably tells you that without having to wait for several months of racing to unfold. I'm genuinely surprised 16/1 is still available, and I expected him to be closer to 10's.

[Istabraq]

I'm just catching up with everything after being at HQ the last couple of days.

I though Third Time Luckki was very impressive. The point that he beat nothing is fair enough, but the time of the race was very quick and his jumping was electric.

I wouldn’t take too much from the clock Spectre, I’m sure I saw that Annual Invictis broke the course record in the following handicap chase.
I thought Third Time Lucki was very good, aided by the Nicholls lunatic horse who kept trying to jump out onto the New Course down the back, and as a 143 rated (I think) hurdler he’d come up well short in an Arkle.
Fantastic couple of days racing nonetheless, great to be back and it almost felt festival like…

[Quevega]

I'm just catching up with everything after being at HQ the last couple of days.

I though Third Time Luckki was very impressive. The point that he beat nothing is fair enough, but the time of the race was very quick and his jumping was electric. I'm not for one second going to say he'll beat Appreciate It or Ferny Hollow, whichever one turns up here, in March but in two mile chases around the Old Course jumping and travelling is at a premium, and he just did exactly that, and it was on his chase debut over course and distance. I'm not sure what anyone else wants to see from a genuine Arkle contender.

I'm already on at the bigger price, but if I wasn't I'd really want to get him backed. Most Arkle's are small fields, often getting 3 places on antepost bets for 4-7 runner races, and irrespective of getting that advantage.

I'll be genuinely surprised if there are the better Arkle runners than him lining up next March, and a cursory look at the Arkle market and what is likely to turn up probably tells you that without having to wait for several months of racing to unfold. I'm genuinely surprised 16/1 is still available, and I expected him to be closer to 10's.

I agree about the price, especially when you look at the potential opposition, both over here and then likely to turn up in the race itself. You're likely to only have a Mullins and De Bromhead horse in front of him on the day, and even then, it may be one dominant Irish horse (this is all guesswork of course)
Basically, if anything happened to the front ranked Irish horse or horses then he'd be more competitive, on the day (and still finish 4th behind the Irish second team )

Not as in agreement with Ista with regards the hurdle rating though as it does looks like they arsed the horse about last season. and 144 over hurdles is more than adequate for a lot of arkle winners over the years. What did put me off him prior to the race Friday was the number of runs vs defeats he had, which does tie in with Ista's thoughts, in that he looked an exposed 144 hurdler.

It's races like the defeat to For Pleasure and the Musslebrough run that were offputting, but the comments after racing from Skelton seemed to concede that they cocked up with some of his placements last year, although he also seemed to hint Soft ground would be an issue (which would be a nagging doubt for the arkle participation itself if it came up on the softer side)

Anyway, I think it would be a mistake to shrug your shoulders with this horse and think you've missed the price, as that jumping and way or running was the perfect arkle trial, and on debut against more experienced horses, was impressive.

Which is why I've backed him this morning, and hope that Dan sticks to a more streamlined campaign and does aim for the arkle as he seemed to hint.
In fact it's almost a shrewder bet to back it now than prior to Friday as those that backed the horse before Friday, simply got Lucki !

[JackieMoon33]

These early season races can often be flattering, especially if a horse front runs and puts in a round of jumping like TTL did. Allmankind put up similar displays last season but could only manage 4th in the Arkle, of five runners. TTL is likely to prove top rank amongst the British candidates but you’d think the Irish would have him covered given they were better hurdlers and less exposed.

[Quevega]

These early season races can often be flattering, especially if a horse front runs and puts in a round of jumping like TTL did. Allmankind put up similar displays last season but could only manage 4th in the Arkle, of five runners. TTL is likely to prove top rank amongst the British candidates but you’d think the Irish would have him covered given they were better hurdlers and less exposed.

I agree to a point.
Although Allmankind was 4 years old, and his only defeat over fences ended up being in the arkle, and the jockey seemed to get his timings all wrong at the festival (some of his rides were ill judged pace wise) - He should really have come second in that arkle. And let's not forget that the Irish team for last years arkle really was fucking shite, as things can conspire against you.

Coincidentally, I've just been trying to fathom how Allmankind is rated 160 and short priced favourite for the Monet Garden Old Roan chase today ????
When he's running against the best handicapped horse in training , that's drifting like Sue Smith knows he's not even got out of bed this year yet.
Only a mug would back her horse today