2022 Arkle

[Craigy14]

it depends doesn't it. I've no idea when a horse is mature but id think the chances are that a 5 year old could improve to a 6 year old more than a 7 year old could to an 8.

in that respect you are more exposed the older you are in novice races. id say though that for appreciate it given the competition that there was nothing close to him at 2m so either he can't jump (and would prob revert to hurdles but nothing from mullins suggests that) or imo ferny hollow shows such strong 2m form that mullins is tempted to up appreciate it yo the trip we all expected him to run last year when ferny was fit.

He’s going into into a new discipline so although older, could show just as much or even more improvement than other novice chasers.

As Jono says above as well, he looks a chaser all over, which doesn’t bode well for his opposition this season to try and close the gap.

[charlie]

Appreciate it or ferny hollow are his most likely Arkle winner but he could run a few in all novice chases this season. I like JDB too and will keep an eye on HEC entries. He could run any of those in either the Arkle or marsh it will be interesting to see how the pecking order forms over the coming months!

I think Ferny will emerge as Willie's number 1 here. Appreciate It is so short at 5/2. He may have been visually impressive in the supreme, but when he's faced properly decent horses he's lost and I don't think many would argue that Bob Olinger or Ferny Hollow wouldn't have won that Supreme just as easily. In terms of the pecking order, what makes 5/2 even worse is I'm not sure AI is regarded as the best 2 miler in Willies yard, let alone full stop (he's priced up as though he is). Willie said Ferny was flashy in comparison to Appreciate It (quoted after Leopardstown) and Patrick said at the McCoy awards that Ferny was the most exciting horse in the yard. Words are words and form is form, but its hard not to deduce from this that Ferny isn't better in their eyes, and it's not like AI didn't look all over the winner in the bumper before Ferny picked him off. Is Ferny's bumper win over AI and beating of Bob on balance better than what AI did last season? I'd argue it probably is. They've intimated chasing and excitement from the stable would indicate wellbeing. For some that wont be enough to part with hard earned and its risky, FH could go champion or pick up another injury, but on balance I think 10/1 is a good price vs 5/2 which is super short.

[Lobos]

Charlie, I think that lots on here including myself would argue that both Ferney and Bollinger would not win the Supreme so easily but it's pointless. Whatever way you look at it AI pissed up in the best Arkle prep race ever and must currently be Mullins number 1 Arkle horse until proved otherwise. Ferney will have to step up to the plate and beyond to overtake him as Mullins number 1 2mile chaser. Can he do it.....Yes. Will he do it.....maybe. Time will tell.

[charlie]

Charlie, I think that lots on here including myself would argue that both Ferney and Bollinger would not win the Supreme so easily but it's pointless. Whatever way you look at it AI pissed up in the best Arkle prep race ever and must currently be Mullins number 1 Arkle horse until proved otherwise. Ferney will have to step up to the plate and beyond to overtake him as Mullins number 1 2mile chaser. Can he do it.....Yes. Will he do it.....maybe. Time will tell.

I agree time will tell, that’s why I said ‘will emerge’.

Whilst AI is too short at 5/2 IMO, he’s obviously the deserving fav, for now.

[Lobos]

I agree time will tell, that’s why I said ‘will emerge’.

Whilst AI is too short at 5/2 IMO, he’s obviously the deserving fav, for now.

Agree, 5/2 is an utter disgrace . We've not even seen him yet! Bookies this year are taking the big P. I've backed him at bigger but won't touch him again.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I agree time will tell, that’s why I said ‘will emerge’.

Whilst AI is too short at 5/2 IMO, he’s obviously the deserving fav, for now.

I'd be steaming into Ferny as I think he's a better horse than AI, especially over the minimum trip, but two things are stopping me at the moment:

1. Missing almost all of last season through injury is making me wary. I've been burnt too many times in the past by injured horses picking up fresh niggles and injuries.
2. Will Willie change his mind and stick to hurdles? When he gets a novice chase entry I will probably part with my cash but we know what WPM is like for changing his mind.

[Craigy14]

I think the 10/1 is about right for Ferny Hollow at the minute because there are so many ifs, buts and maybes. I’m sure the debate with AI and FH will continue for a good while

I’m sure everyone on this forum would have close to a 5P bet at those odds if:

- we knew he was 100% going chasing
- we knew he was in rude health, obviously we will know he is fit and well from stable info but unfortunately we may not know properly until a visual performance on the track and by that point price is gone

As FM says above its not easy to wade in at the minute. It could go either and I couldn’t at this stage as he’s certainly one horse where cashout would be gone in seconds.

With Appreciate It, for me, he surely has to be top of the pecking order at the minute for the Arkle based on what he has achieved on the track. He’s won the best 2m hurdle prep race for the Arkle there is. Now the 2m novices weren’t great but you only have to go on the visual performance imo. 24 lengths is massive, incredible. The same horses were only 3 and 5 lengths back a month earlier. If Blue Lord had stayed up he still would have been walloped about 15 lengths I’d say easily, AI was eased down with no dangers of course.

He will have a rough idea on how his line up with Bob. Ferny has beaten Bob so does WPM pitch Ferny in against him knowing he could have his measure? If I owned Appreciate It and WPM moved my horse up in trip and was beaten you’d be a bit pissed. Knowing that the Arkle, at this stage, looks a penalty kick imo.

I know it’s all guesswork but it is a good debate and it will be interesting what plays out. Ultimately after all that it’s a no play for me at this stage as I’d want a decent punt at the price

[opatcho]

Not sure I want 10/1 for this much guess work though
Talented, yes
Form lines stacking up nicely
But... this injury and being out for pretty much the entire season concerns me

Cashout option helps but still, I have to keep to my self-written AP rules (novices having a heavily disrupted season) and take it on the chin if he comes back and blows the 2 mile chase scene apart

[Spectre]

Not only is a tilt at the Champion Hurdle a possibility, I also think as a former pointer he may go up in trip over fences. He's already beaten Bob Olinger in that war at Gowran where he won a shade cosily in the end despite an mistake at the last. That was on heavy ground too, and as a former Pointer and Bumper horse he hardly going to go backwards at mid-trips if Willie takes aim at Bob Olinger in the Marsh.

Appreciate It really should go to the Arkle after what he did in the Supreme, and Ferny would be Willie's best chance of picking up the Marsh. He has Galopin Des Champs for the RSA, and plenty of back-up for all three races.

The treble pays 539/1 with 365 for anyone who hasn't backed it, and the sensible bet to cover Ferny and Appreciate It is the reverse Arkle/Marsh double which I did some time ago.

[Quevega]

I'd be grateful if someone could request a price with B365 for faivoir. - They refused me.

He could easily rack up a series of wins as I don't see much competition over here, and has an excellent win ratio, and the Kelso hurdle he lost was against seriously well handicapped horses, conceded weight, with the front 3 clear.
Watched his uttoxeter debut and he won easily.
Might want further in time, but Skelton may campaign over 2 miles early on, and Skelton did ok with allmankind, and i think this horse is potentially better. Definitely with a more flexible run style.
I want 66's please

[germanshepherd]

I remember an interview, can't remember if it was with Patrick or Ruby but basically eluded to the fact that Willie has plans well ahead of time, so I suspect he'll have some idea at the very least.

If I can find the interview I shall post it, but it was only a 5 second section so may be like looking for a needle in a haystack.

It's a myth that Willie doesn't have long term plans. Decides at the last minute my arse. He hasn't got to where he is by deciding in the spare of the moment. He definitely has long term targets but plans can change of course.

[FinalFurlong91]

It's a myth that Willie doesn't have long term plans. Decides at the last minute my arse. He hasn't got to where he is by deciding in the spare of the moment. He definitely has long term targets but plans can change of course.

Surely every big trainer has a target in mind at the start of the season

Then how the horse performs on the track will determine whether that plan will be stuck too

[ToniC]

Agree with both of the above, and to be fair we say Mullins bingo and things like that but he is between a rock and a hard place with it a bit IMO as if he were to name a target and then had to change last minute due to extremes in ground, knock-on effects of injuries elsewhere or whatever else I imagine he would cop for a lot of stick.

he surely has a fairly firm idea of targets and personally I’d rather know and accept that like anything it is subject to change, but can see why he prefers to keep it close to his chest

[Istabraq]

Mullins issue is that he has so much talent he has to find a schedule that suits all horses and gives them all a chance of winning the best races possible, he can't target the Arkle with every one of his 2m hurdlers that are going chasing...

[Saxon Warrior]

Mullins issue is that he has so much talent he has to find a schedule that suits all horses and gives them all a chance of winning the best races possible, he can't target the Arkle with every one of his 2m hurdlers that are going chasing...

A wonderfully accurate summary