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not that long then. Deleted all my stuff on the novice handicap when they binned the race so never thought of that when I had a quick look! It’s a long time (pre-2010) for the current pattern of festival races
I lost Ferny from the 2021 supreme, backed him for the 2022 champion hurdle , then it was said he was going over fences so backed him for the arkle and now this, 3 kicks in the bollox in 12 months !
not that long then. Deleted all my stuff on the novice handicap when they binned the race so never thought of that when I had a quick look! It’s a long time (pre-2010) for the current pattern of festival races
Just looked over the last 5 years at the shorter novice races.
Arkle
2021 - Allmankind 4th 5/1. Horrible ride by Skelton when he was probably the 2nd best horse in the race.
2020 - Fakir 3/1. 2nd.
2018. Saint Calvados 11/4 4th. See the Skelton comment above but the ride was even worse.
Turners -
2020 - Saint Sonnet unplaced. 33/1
2018 - Terrefort 2nd at 3/1 fav.
Novice hcap chase
2020 - Torpillo 10th 40/1
2019 - A Plus Tard 1st. 5/1 fav
2018 - Demi Sang PU 20/1.
Of the ones with realistic chances, 1 win, 2 2nds and 2 4ths (which should have been better places but for the rides) from 5 horses in 5 years.
Allmankind was against an odds on Shishkin and Saint Calvados against an odds on Footpad and both finished 4th so if you ignore those the other 3 all ran really well in open races.
Decent record if they are towards the head of the market.
Just looked over the last 5 years at the shorter novice races.
Arkle
2021 - Allmankind 4th 5/1. Horrible ride by Skelton when he was probably the 2nd best horse in the race.
2020 - Fakir 3/1. 2nd.
2018. Saint Calvados 11/4 4th. See the Skelton comment above but the ride was even worse.
Turners -
2020 - Saint Sonnet unplaced. 33/1
2018 - Terrefort 2nd at 3/1 fav.
Novice hcap chase
2020 - Torpillo 10th 40/1
2019 - A Plus Tard 1st. 5/1 fav
2018 - Demi Sang PU 20/1.
Of the ones with realistic chances, 1 win, 2 2nds and 2 4ths (which should have been better places but for the rides) from 5 horses in 5 years.
Allmankind was against an odds on Shishkin and Saint Calvados against an odds on Footpad and both finished 4th so if you ignore those the other 3 all ran really well in open races.
Decent record if they are towards the head of the market.
Until about 2006 5yo horses got an 8lb allowance in G1s, their success was why it was removed…
I lost Ferny from the 2021 supreme, backed him for the 2022 champion hurdle , then it was said he was going over fences so backed him for the arkle and now this, 3 kicks in the bollox in 12 months !
I'd take a guess at HEC and blue lord here... Jungle boogie and saint sam to go against bob..
Jungle Boogie definitely for the Marsh but I think he'll be joined by HEC and I'd be fairly surprised if he wasn't. I think Willie hoped GDM would fire over fences and make up that lack of brute speed to put it up to Bob but that obviously hasn't worked whereas HEC looked fantastic. He's taken the same route as Melon over fences thus far and unless he beats the brakes off Blue Lord in the Irish Arkle he'll follow what Melon did and go at Bob. Saint Sam for here with Blue Lord.
Disappointing news today regarding Ferny Hollow, and commiserations to those who had interest in his participation here - I think that's most of us in one way or another!
There's understandably a bit of chat about which additional horse(s) now come here, including as Mullins' second-string. But, previously in the will he/won't he discussion regarding Blue Lord when he was generally regarded as second-string, plenty of emphasis was placed on how both FH and BL were 'worthy' of their chance here off the back of suitably impressive early season form, unbeaten records and a sense that they had each, both, 'earned their chance'. As some had argued previously, Mullins has a track record of opting for just a single dart in this race, so is there not now a materially greater chance that he does indeed send just one (BL) rather than re-routing one of the others being speculated about?
Disappointing news today regarding Ferny Hollow, and commiserations to those who had interest in his participation here - I think that's most of us in one way or another!
There's understandably a bit of chat about which additional horse(s) now come here, including as Mullins' second-string. But, previously in the will he/won't he discussion regarding Blue Lord when he was generally regarded as second-string, plenty of emphasis was placed on how both FH and BL were 'worthy' of their chance here off the back of suitably impressive early season form, unbeaten records and a sense that they had each, both, 'earned their chance'. As some had argued previously, Mullins has a track record of opting for just a single dart in this race, so is there not now a materially greater chance that he does indeed send just one (BL) rather than re-routing one of the others being speculated about?
Very fair point, and I guess if Blue Lord puts on a demolition job at the DRF then that might be the case.
To be fair now, does it look great, absolutely not, but I’d rather have it that way around, than the first we know about it cashout is gone, the market is re-structured and there’s an official announcement. Never a great look one drifting on the exchange but if you’re switched on you should get chance to alter your position accordingly before the high st books react
What's this? A Mullins horse takes a massive walk on the exchange and is then ruled out with injury? Will wonders never cease?
At least they tell us within the day these days
….I suppose the first communication from the trainer is to the owners who inform their close contacts. They will immediately look to their own interest and markets are impacted before official announcement.
Fortunately, the good folk of FJ are quickly on the case & we have an opportunity to cash-out.
What's this? A Mullins horse takes a massive walk on the exchange and is then ruled out with injury? Will wonders never cease?
At least they tell us within the day these days
I've been heavily screwed over by losing Ferny - possibly to the tune of 100pts of expected return (i.e. half of my bank for the festival) - but yesterday was probably as good as it's going to get for me in terms of communication. Horse racing is a sport that is literally centred on betting so to have the information out within an hour of an exchange 'wobble' is honestly excellent imo. The situation last year sounds like it was a joke, and was a joke with horses like Benie, but I think this one was OK. There's always going to be leaks and other sports have them and have people profit from them massively - they just aren't as well known.
Aye, CPS are very good in my opinion and this was a pretty quick release of info. If it was a RR and Mullins horse we'd be watching it drift on the exchange silently still this morning I suspect.
To be fair now, does it look great, absolutely not, but I’d rather have it that way around, than the first we know about it cashout is gone, the market is re-structured and there’s an official announcement. Never a great look one drifting on the exchange but if you’re switched on you should get chance to alter your position accordingly before the high st books react
Dear whoever it may concern ...Please can you demonstrate just enough lack of integrity in order that we can cash our bets out first but not so much lack of integrity that we are left hanging for days......not a great look imo. And if you are switched on....so folks that work or have other commitments are not switched on? I’m not sure integrity has too many shades of grey...it’s kind of binary isn’t it? And I’d gladly sacrifice cash out opportunities if that’s all it took.
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not that long then. Deleted all my stuff on the novice handicap when they binned the race so never thought of that when I had a quick look! It’s a long time (pre-2010) for the current pattern of festival races
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