2022 Arkle

[charlie]

Would you actually?

The race looks absolutely abysmal, you can take , you've got Greaneteen, who is no guarantee to turn up, and then we are down to Captain Guinness & Dunvegan If Chacun doesn't turn up (or even if he does for that matter) it is going to be a seriously bad G1.

Yep. It would be a really uncharacteristic thing for Willie to do, plus, if Energumene, Allaho and Chacun come out then PN will be licking his lips at running Greaneteen. Would Ferny beat him, maybe, but Willie wont take the risk when he doesnt have to.

[Quevega]

Related double is 33-1 with skybet.

[DeeBee]

I think it's a personal thing Dee, and also depends how much you have invested at what price, and what you think the chances are of the horses he connects with.

An alternative is looking at how you could cover the eventuality of him coming to the Marsh differently so you aren't all or nothing. Ie how could you use part of the stake to optimise a multiple that includes him for the Marsh, but still connects other horses id he doesn't, and gives you a potential win that makes you feel better about cashing out.

Also look at him in the context of your other bets. so if you have multiples that look good with him in the Arkle, consider what level of cover do you want to retain with him in multiples for the Marsh.

Finally if the FOMO that comes with cashing out is too great though just take the risk and the hit later if he sticks to the Arkle route. When you have multiple bets across multiple races, what percentage of your total stake is at risk here. Is is significant or is it a drop in the ocean?

Thanks for the detailed reply Spectre and apologies for the delay in responding!

Most of the bets with Ferny in the Marsh were intended as cover bets having got some juicy multiples for him in the Arkle on during last years festival. The cover stakes are low and tbh the way most of my bets have gone this year, I’d say that Ferny winning the Arkle will make or break my festival! Hes my biggest winner (and permed with many other favourites at decent prices). So not getting a run for my money and seeing him go elsewhere would feel like a loss in itself.

I was more intrigued to see what would cause him to line up anywhere other than the Arkle. Is it fair to assume that he and Blue Lord line up in the Irish Arkle and the runner up goes up in trip? Or they don’t both run in the Irish Arkle and then do battle at Cheltenham?

I guess either way - I should probably wait post DRF before any potential cash outs of back up bets

[Kevloaf]

One of the things I loved Hendo doing was exploiting a weak open G1 2 mile chase.


Game Spirit with Sprinter Sacre and Altior in their Arkle winning years.



Do it Willie.

#TeamHendo

[ComplyOrDie]

Related double is 33-1 with skybet.

Just had a bit of this

[Spectre]

Thanks for the detailed reply Spectre and apologies for the delay in responding!

Most of the bets with Ferny in the Marsh were intended as cover bets having got some juicy multiples for him in the Arkle on during last years festival. The cover stakes are low and tbh the way most of my bets have gone this year, I’d say that Ferny winning the Arkle will make or break my festival! Hes my biggest winner (and permed with many other favourites at decent prices). So not getting a run for my money and seeing him go elsewhere would feel like a loss in itself.

I was more intrigued to see what would cause him to line up anywhere other than the Arkle. Is it fair to assume that he and Blue Lord line up in the Irish Arkle and the runner up goes up in trip? Or they don’t both run in the Irish Arkle and then do battle at Cheltenham?

I guess either way - I should probably wait post DRF before any potential cash outs of back up bets

There's a chance that one of them goes for the Dublin Steeplechase and takes on the open race, with the other running in the Arkle Dee. Take Chacun out of the main race and there wouldn't be much in there for Ferny to be afraid of.

Chacun is fragile and I've been wondering about him for a while now. If Chacun runs I'd expect both Ferny and Blue Lord to face off in the Irish Arkle, and Ferny is just the better horse, so with a clean round of jumping you'd think he'll win.

[Grand Canyon]

Ferny Hollow into 6/1 from 10/1 with powers for Dublin chase. Slight drift for him and Blue Lord for Irish Arkle.and support for Saint Sam and Haut En Couleurs. Possible Ferny could switch.

[Muswell]

RP tipped them all up today in their email

[Grand Canyon]

RP tipped them all up today in their email

Thanks for that, you'd want eyes in the back of your head until the DRF.

[Mighty]

PP have just shortened Ferny from 6/1 to 10/3 for the Dublin Chase, up against CPS (will he go?) and Greaneteen. That's a huge price cut - any suggestion he runs there? 5/1 with Sky still and quite tempted by that...

[DeeBee]

PP have just shortened Ferny from 6/1 to 10/3 for the Dublin Chase, up against CPS (will he go?) and Greaneteen. That's a huge price cut - any suggestion he runs there? 5/1 with Sky still and quite tempted by that...

If he does (or even if he’s being considered) then surely that’s a huge indication of his ability.. and possibly that he will be the only Arkle dart?

[Benjy23]

If he does (or even if he’s being considered) then surely that’s a huge indication of his ability.. and possibly that he will be the only Arkle dart?

Assuming it means Blue Lord goes for the Irish Arkle, I'm not sure how you'd conclude he then won't go for the Arkle at Cheltenham... Or whatever Mullins runs in the Irish equivalent to be fair, if it wins.

[Lobos]

PP have just shortened Ferny from 6/1 to 10/3 for the Dublin Chase, up against CPS (will he go?) and Greaneteen. That's a huge price cut - any suggestion he runs there? 5/1 with Sky still and quite tempted by that...

CPS is injured isn't he ? Don't think we'll see him again. Mullins wouldn't be scared of Greanteen on home turf that's for sure. 12's into 10/3 suggests he's going to run I'd say. Perfect really as they can split him up with BL and both can trot off to the Arkle with unbeaten records.

[ComplyOrDie]

CPS is injured isn't he ? Don't think we'll see him again. Mullins wouldn't be scared of Greanteen on home turf that's for sure. 12's into 10/3 suggests he's going to run I'd say. Perfect really as they can split him up with BL and both can trot off to the Arkle with unbeaten records.

This is how I've seen it Lobos. And backed the related double to back that up, so here's hoping!

[Lobos]

This is how I've seen it Lobos. And backed the related double to back that up, so here's hoping!

Dont blame you. Makes complete sense and both could end up quite short on the day. The related EW double shouldn't be sniffed at at current prices.