2022 Arkle

[Rooster Booster]

Indeed RB. Edwardstone spent all of last year running in handicaps. I do like the horse, but the level of opposition he's faced leaves me to believe he'll come up short.

That’s a more reasoned viewpoint than having a pop at a trainer that has actually won the race twice which puts him in the top half dozen active trainers for this race. He hasn’t had much ammunition for a long time but his exploits on the flat also tell you he is no mug as a trainer ...but a little rude yes I think so too

[doctorwu]

Fair point RB. I was thinking more with his novice/juvenile hurdlers that have been very well fancied and have been soo disappointing. There's only a few trainers that I believe can win certain races so I'll continue to stay away as its part of my strategy which works well for me. As for AK, been in his company and found him very interesting.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I didn't make any reference to AK being rude, I just don't touch his horses at the festival because he's got such a lousy record. As for Grade1 & 2 chases over here.......purleze.

No YOU didn’t, that was in another post I was responding too.
No issue with not backing a trainers horses cos of the trainers record.
Could you tell me which races over here I should be looking at to get form guides for the Arkle?

[Carnage at Taunton]

Another point
Watch last years Queen Mother when you get a moment, and let me know where you think Sceau Royal would have finished had he not been taken out by RVif.
Be interesting to get opinions…… I have mine.

[doctorwu]

Another point
Watch last years Queen Mother when you get a moment, and let me know where you think Sceau Royal would have finished had he not been taken out by RVif.
Be interesting to get opinions…… I have mine.

He finished 5th. Been to the festival several times and never finished better than 3rd. He's one I put a line through straight away for the festival.

[charlie]

Not sure that’s a strategy that will pay off!!
Each to their own.

Horse has done nowt wrong and been very impressive in both his races.
You prefer FH, I doubt you are alone, I think he’s the most likely winner right now, but visually I don’t see a big gulf.

I don’t make a book nor do I back lots. I think I’ve placed 3 ante post bets in this race, with Ferny at 14’s, so I’m happy with my current strategy

[charlie]

I didn't make any reference to AK being rude, I just don't touch his horses at the festival because he's got such a lousy record. As for Grade1 & 2 chases over here.......purleze.

The rude reference was me, but you’ve summed up my thoughts on AK exactly. I’d rather back an AK horse at a shorter price on the day than wade in ante post because there are lots of red herrings.

[Hurricane fly]

Think there is more than a hint of under estimation in that.
To be honest if I had backed or were thinking of backing Edwardstone, I would not be put off by any of last years form/ratings.
I would concentrate on what I personally deem to be most important….. the horses ability to jump and travel in a 2m novice chase.
Once I am happy with what I see, I will then act accordingly as to the prices available.
Then find out in March whether he’s actually good enough to beat what lines up.

I understand your thinking, but for me an English Grade 1 novice chase is a Grade 3 in Ireland. As a result I expect wide margin wins if I'm going to believe they have a real shot.

I don't think you can just ignore previous seasons form, especially as novice hurdlers are now typically 6 at the festival not 5.

2 form lines I would read into

Edwardstone beat For Pleasure 15 lengths, a horse that was 25+ lengths down in the Supreme

Edwardstone beat War Lord by 16 lengths, last season he beat him by 2 lengths giving him 12lbs, so that is only a 2lb improvement

So Edwardstone has improved for a fence a couple of lbs but perhaps not as much as everyone thinks, just he is now facing them off levels rather than giving lumps of weight away. You could also use the TTL distances but I think we all know that disgrace of a ride needs a line through it!

The For Pleasure is just to remind everyone just how far we are behind the elite horses in Ireland.

[Mighty]

Rooster, for the uninitiated, what are the red herrings?

[Rooster Booster]

Rooster, for the uninitiated, what are the red herrings?

That was Charlie I think

[Mighty]

Sorry Rooster - still in my post Christmas stupor! Over to Charlie.

[Carnage at Taunton]

He finished 5th. Been to the festival several times and never finished better than 3rd. He's one I put a line through straight away for the festival.

Have you watched it again?

[Rooster Booster]

I understand your thinking, but for me an English Grade 1 novice chase is a Grade 3 in Ireland. As a result I expect wide margin wins if I'm going to believe they have a real shot.

I don't think you can just ignore previous seasons form, especially as novice hurdlers are now typically 6 at the festival not 5.

2 form lines I would read into

Edwardstone beat For Pleasure 15 lengths, a horse that was 25+ lengths down in the Supreme

Edwardstone beat War Lord by 16 lengths, last season he beat him by 2 lengths giving him 12lbs, so that is only a 2lb improvement

So Edwardstone has improved for a fence a couple of lbs but perhaps not as much as everyone thinks, just he is now facing them off levels rather than giving lumps of weight away. You could also use the TTL distances but I think we all know that disgrace of a ride needs a line through it!

The For Pleasure is just to remind everyone just how far we are behind the elite horses in Ireland.

Ok but I read things like this a lot so I am not aiming it at you personally. You mentioned two horses when questioning whether edwardstone has improved significantly or not. You use War Lord as your case for not but offer no further scrutiny and yet the horse that could be used to argue the opposite you provide extra information (the jockeys ride) as mitigation. I would be much more accommodating of your viewpoint if both horses were subject to equal scrutiny. Failing to do so just gets filed into the ‘lacks impartiality’ tray for me.

[ToniC]

Not backing Alan King horses at the festival is a very good strategy.
Do handicap hurdlers turn out to be Arkle winners???? PTKO did it.

You’ve nailed it here. Edwardstone is looking good in GB because their 2 mile novice hurdlers last year were worse than shite, and maybe that’s why they decided to go novice chasing this season as they knew there could be pots to be won as there would be little in terms of decent opposition coming through the ranks from last seasons nov hurdlers. But realistically, his career up until now would suggest he will not be up to this level, and they’d have probably gone chasing last season if they genuinely thought he was.

[doctorwu]

Have you watched it again?

Several times, still finished 5th.