2022 Arkle

[Kautostar]

Wonder if he’s had a setback…

He was in all the entries last weekend I wouldn’t worry unless we get past Xmas without seeing him

[darlojim]

Also interesting that they've shortened one of his current main rivals Edwardstone. They have however, pushed out my drogo and bob so maybe just balancing their book :/

[DeeBee]

Also interesting that they've shortened one of his current main rivals Edwardstone. They have however, pushed out my drogo and bob so maybe just balancing their book :/

Yes I expect that’s the case.. they were a stand out 5/1 after yesterdays race so maybe took on quite an amount then…

[Al Boum Photo]

I think they'll be kept apart before the Arkle Dee Bee. My natural assumption therefore is that they'll both go to the Arkle because they'll be unbeaten (barring a fall), because of the lack of credible opposition.

Essentially neither horse will give Willie a reason to up them in trip.

Surely the opportunity to win the Marsh and the Arkle with what are likely 2 of his best novice chasers would be a reason to step one up in trip.
I'd rather have the favourite for the Arkle and a strong chance in the Marsh than the first 2 in the betting for the Arkle.
If they're split the most likely outcome is probably winning the Arkle and finishing 2nd to BO in the Marsh with a chance of winning both, whereas if they both go to the Arkle the best possible result is a 1,2.

[MadeinJapan]

Surely the opportunity to win the Marsh and the Arkle with what are likely 2 of his best novice chasers would be a reason to step one up in trip.
I'd rather have the favourite for the Arkle and a strong chance in the Marsh than the first 2 in the betting for the Arkle.
If they're split the most likely outcome is probably winning the Arkle and finishing 2nd to BO in the Marsh with a chance of winning both, whereas if they both go to the Arkle the best possible result is a 1,2.

We haven’t seen all of his others to come out yet either, he could end up with a couple in each. Blue Lord being one fly in the ointment that could go to either of the races for example…

[Odin]

I'm confused as to why it now seems to be the general consensus that Ferny will go for Arkle/is more likely to go for Arkle/is equally likely to go for Arkle, when that wasn't the case before this race? Am I misreading comments here or has something changed that has made anyone change their thought processes (e.g. from won't go to Arkle, to more likely to go for Arkle)?

For me, Ferny was always gonna start over 2m, was always likely to start over 2m before Appreciate It (if push came to shove and both were fit, due to Ferny's need for race experience - I'm not gonna pretend that I expected Mullins horses to be struggling for runs at this point, but it's unsurprising Ferny has started before AI is what I'm saying) and I fully expected him to win well (although beating a 152 rated hurdler in the way he did was probably better than I expected). I'll be happier if he goes to Arkle as that was always my first preference for him but there seems to have been a shift towards people getting jittery about Appreciate It coming here now, which doesn't make a lot of sense to me based on Ferny doing what I expected.

I know not everyone has changed their thought processes, but can anyone who has let me know what I'm missing (if I'm missing anything)?

[Topofthegame2021]

I know not everyone has changed their thought processes, but can anyone who has let me know what I'm missing (if I'm missing anything)?

I’m not sure if you saw CPS saying they are working back from the Arkle as that’s that goal.

For me, I’m still in the Marsh camp for Ferny. The owners would say that. They don’t know how good Appreciate it is at home.

He was lazy over his first few fences. Didn’t jump like a 2miler at all, and by all accounts he put in some shitty jumps in his PTP run too. Let’s not forget there were a few fences omitted on Sunday. If they weren’t and he carried on jumping like he was, he might not have even won. It was his turn of foot on the flat that won the race.

It was difficult not to be impressed by the performance given he had such a long lay off but my instant thought was that he would be perfect for the Marsh. He’d get away with a couple of slower jumps there.

If Appreciate it comes out and can jump a fence fluently, which I’m sure he will be able to, then he’s the Arkle horse in the yard for me.

At the end of the day, Ferny was 1/2 on Sunday and won like a 1/2 shot. That didn’t change my stance on his most likely Cheltenham destination.

[Odin]

Fair comments Topofthegame2021 - I hadn't seen the CPS quote, but wouldn't read too much into it given previously it's been taken as a given that Willie gets what he wants and he hasn't said anything similar yet, sounds like you agree that it doesn't matter too much as well. Comments about AI also fair - I think we will know a lot more about both of them by Christmas time (even if AI has only run in a Beginners Chase by then)

[DenmanSacre]

I think Ferny's performance was pretty encouraging for a future at 2m and he deserves the chance to prove he is a 2miler for the rest of the season.

They went quite slow early on - they were slower than the John Durkan quite significantly from the 5th last to the 3rd last where they skipped the fences but from then on, this race was stupidly faster than the John Durkan and this was when FH jumped his best. In general his jumping was pretty good, bit novicey at 2 but his jumping was better than Bob's IMO.

Next time, we need to see him get a lead so hopefully Riviere D'Etel (if he races her and wins over Christmas, then there's no way he shouldn't be running in the Arklel, Magic Daze or another front runner is also declared. We can then see him run over a quicker 2m with more pace in the early sections and see how he fairs, but he settled OK at the weekend and showed a lot of pace late on which over the 2m3 of the Marsh is encouraging if he were to be rerouted there.

For those behind, Couer Sublime ran well after a long absence. He was a grade 2 winner over 2m hurdles (though possibly the worst grade 2 imaginable) but still decently rated. I'd like to see him in another maiden next time to get a win and then try a graded race. He jumped well in the main and could be a useful chaser.

The race was perfectly set up for Thedevilscoachman - his wins over 2m last season were slow early and then fast finishes and he didn't lay a glove on the front two in what seemed his ideal race conditions and enhances the front 2's performances for me.

I may be in the minority to believe he would be better than AI over most trips but hopefully we see the big clash later in the season.

[Spectre]

Surely the opportunity to win the Marsh and the Arkle with what are likely 2 of his best novice chasers would be a reason to step one up in trip.
I'd rather have the favourite for the Arkle and a strong chance in the Marsh than the first 2 in the betting for the Arkle.
If they're split the most likely outcome is probably winning the Arkle and finishing 2nd to BO in the Marsh with a chance of winning both, whereas if they both go to the Arkle the best possible result is a 1,2.

Who are you going to tell that their horse doesn't deserve a crack at the Arkle when it's unbeaten in two mile chases easily putting the opposition away? The Masterson's or Cheveley Park? I suspect neither is the answer ABP, and I doubt Willie would either.

[Kautostar]

Who are you going to tell that their horse doesn't deserve a crack at the Arkle when it's unbeaten in two mile chases easily putting the opposition away? The Masterson's or Cheveley Park? I suspect neither is the answer ABP, and I doubt Willie would either.

I find it hard to believe that these two wont be split come March. UDS/Vautour were split despite vautour winning the supreme in a fast time. I’m not sure which way Willie will split them yet but I’d be confident one of them will line up in the marsh chase.

[Lobos]

I find it hard to believe that these two wont be split come March. UDS/Vautour were split despite vautour winning the supreme in a fast time. I’m not sure which way Willie will split them yet but I’d be confident one of them will line up in the marsh chase.

I agree. They'll be split up imo. I'd think both horses are plenty good enough to go either way and would have good chances wherever they land so it'll be left to Mullins to decide which one goes where.

[Exar Essay]

The thing is, we haven't seen the majority of Willie's yet. We might see downwards pressure on the Marsh too from his staying chasers. What if GDC, GDM etc. come out and smoke the opposition over the mid-distance? Willie might then decide that he has plenty of ammo for the Marsh (and the RSA) and be happy with two darts at the Arkle, even if they are bloody good darts. It's not just two horses he has to distribute over the novice chasers.

[Saxon Warrior]

Who are you going to tell that their horse doesn't deserve a crack at the Arkle when it's unbeaten in two mile chases easily putting the opposition away? The Masterson's or Cheveley Park? I suspect neither is the answer ABP, and I doubt Willie would either.

Yes, I agree.

We all have a view, which could be based on our betting positions, in part.

The trainer moves almost all of his army of novice hurdlers up into novice chases every year.

There are 3 Festival Grade 1 chases, and a Grade 2.

If he has 6 or 8 or 10 runners to aim at those 3 Grade 1's in a couple of months time, I don't see any reason for him to be precious about avoiding Ferny v Appreciate It, if that's where their form is leading them both towards.

They are two horses among many, he would be hoping to run in those 3 Festival races.

[Lbur4288]

I don't think they'll split Appreciate It or Ferny Hollow, when I emailed the yard enquiring about Jungle Boogie I was told he'd be going novice chasing, he then got a hurdle entry and I assumed I'd been span a line but he didn't run and has since had a further entry in a chase. There's lots to happen and for us to learn from yet but I do feel like he could be the Marsh horse for Willie. He's gone largely under the radar but I have drawn comparisons to Energumene in my other post about JB. With Willie having two very strong Arkle candidates, I can see JB being the Marsh horse. I'm prepared to chance at the price and I'll review after seeing his chasing debut.