2022 Arkle

[robith]

To my uneducated eyes, I'd say Ferny is able to maintain a very fast gallop for a long time, which I think makes him a savage prospect at the shorter trip, whilst Appreciate It maybe has the higher cruising speed which makes him more distance versatile? Just my thoughts

[Spectre]

Cue Card's Bumper performance didn't help him win an Arkle.

Talk about Ferny Hollow now, using that bumper run as evidence for what might happen over a new code is clutching at straws. Not even plastic straws, it's those crap new flimsy paper ones from McDonalds.

I have to take the lid off now. I can't get on with those paper ones. Greta Thumberg has a lot to answer for.

[charlie]

It's worth the watch Charlie even if you disagree. They are just worth watching again full stop.

Ferny started his run in the Bumper from just after 4 furlongs out and kept it up all the way through the line. That one I agree you could interpret either way.

At Gowran he just kept galloping in heavy ground when they had a war up the straight. I could agree to disagree in the Bumper, but I have no doubt he outstayed Bob. It definitely wasn't pace that won it in that ground.

I've watched both many times, inc before responding to you

Bumper open to interpretation but re Gowran I'm repeating what PT said re it being a dash off a slow pace. He might be wrong and you might be right

[Direct Route]

To my untrained eye, Ferny Hollow seems to be the speedier of the three.
Ferny, Bob then Appreciate It.
Have a look at Appreciate It PTP, he was done for turn of foot by Envoi Allen from the second last.

[Hardy Eustace]

Loving the contrasting opinions here.

I wouldn't be able to split Bob O and appreciate it but you have to have them ahead of Ferny.

One thing I will say though is the way Ferny wore down AI in the bumper makes me think he'd be more of a marsh than an Arkle horse and I will probably back him for the Marsh when I see a chase entry.

[charlie]

Talk about Ferny Hollow now, using that bumper run as evidence for what might happen over a new code is clutching at straws. Not even plastic straws, it's those crap new flimsy paper ones from McDonalds.

Ferny's bumper win serves as evidence he's run two very good races in his life, and not one. Far too many bumper winners look brilliant but are shit. Does that mean he'll win an Arkle, no of course not, that parallel would be daft, but when trying to weigh up how good he might be, the bumper was a small part of a bigger picture and it tells us the BO win was no fluke as well.

[Kevloaf]

Ferny's bumper win serves as evidence he's run two very good races in his life, and not one. Far too many bumper winners look brilliant but are shit. Does that mean he'll win an Arkle, no of course not, that parallel would be daft, but when trying to weigh up how good he might be, the bumper was a small part of a bigger picture and it tells us the BO win was no fluke as well.

Yeah, all true, but he's 10/1 at the moment so it's not worth having to guess at, when there is more juice in a stone? I want horses with as much juice as this lemon - like Appreciate It, at 3/1 who should be 1/3

[Chris]

Has anyone consider that Sir Gerhard might skip a hurdle season and go strait over fences because of his age now 6 and 7 next March or am I mad.

[Lobos]

Has anyone consider that Sir Gerhard might skip a hurdle season and go strait over fences because of his age now 6 and 7 next March or am I mad.

No and Yes.

[Altior]

Has anyone consider that Sir Gerhard might skip a hurdle season and go strait over fences because of his age now 6 and 7 next March or am I mad.

Kilcruit is in the same boat. And there was a similar albeit a very short argument for Appreciate It last year and we saw how that worked out.

[Odin]

I feel like such a simpleton with the debate around horse targets, but I can't understand why (if he's the horse he was), FH wouldn't come here..

- 'best' horse in the yard
- very inexperienced so in my eyes better to have another year as a novice than go into open company
- was obviously their 2 miler last year
- Appreciate It never been seen as a 2 miler
- Cheveley Park don't have a 2 miler (they have several for 2.5m+)
- Willie still hasn't won the Champion Chase (wouldn't you send your 'best' horse there if you hadn't won it yet even though he might have by next year)
- if FH and AI ran against each other, based on all known evidence and the assumption that FH is the horse he was (which is admittedly a big assumption, but part of the game), FH would win, so how could Masterson's get pissed?

I dunno, the stars just seem to align in one direction [FH Arkle regardless of what AI does], like I thought they did (even though they still might not) for JWM to AB. Whether approximately 10/1 is an acceptable price for people is a different matter...

[Saxon Warrior]

I feel like such a simpleton with the debate around horse targets, but I can't understand why (if he's the horse he was), FH wouldn't come here..

- 'best' horse in the yard
- very inexperienced so in my eyes better to have another year as a novice than go into open company
- was obviously their 2 miler last year
- Appreciate It never been seen as a 2 miler
- Cheveley Park don't have a 2 miler (they have several for 2.5m+)
- Willie still hasn't won the Champion Chase (wouldn't you send your 'best' horse there if you hadn't won it yet even though he might have by next year)
- if FH and AI ran against each other, based on all known evidence and the assumption that FH is the horse he was (which is admittedly a big assumption, but part of the game), FH would win, so how could Masterson's get pissed?

I dunno, the stars just seem to align in one direction [FH Arkle regardless of what AI does], like I thought they did (even though they still might not) for JWM to AB. Whether approximately 10/1 is an acceptable price for people is a different matter...

It makes exactly the same sense to me as it does to you.

Also
If Bob O remains the hardened class act over a mid-trip when stepping into novice chases this season

- then surely AI is better placed - after a full season of Grade 1 Hurdles successes - to take Bob on Novice chasing rather than a horse who has spent a year off the track.

[Silverbirch]

We need an Arkle poll - who wins the arkle ferny or Appreciate it?

[Dandrew99]

I feel like such a simpleton with the debate around horse targets, but I can't understand why (if he's the horse he was), FH wouldn't come here..

- 'best' horse in the yard
- very inexperienced so in my eyes better to have another year as a novice than go into open company
- was obviously their 2 miler last year
- Appreciate It never been seen as a 2 miler
- Cheveley Park don't have a 2 miler (they have several for 2.5m+)
- Willie still hasn't won the Champion Chase (wouldn't you send your 'best' horse there if you hadn't won it yet even though he might have by next year)
- if FH and AI ran against each other, based on all known evidence and the assumption that FH is the horse he was (which is admittedly a big assumption, but part of the game), FH would win, so how could Masterson's get pissed?

I dunno, the stars just seem to align in one direction [FH Arkle regardless of what AI does], like I thought they did (even though they still might not) for JWM to AB. Whether approximately 10/1 is an acceptable price for people is a different matter...

I'm not saying I think you're wrong... I'm very 50/50 at the minute. But to counter each of your points:

• He hasn't been seen at a track for what will be nearly a year, and he's only been seen jumping once, ever. He might be showing you loads at home and look very talented, but he wouldn't be the first horse to appear to be a different horse on the track, especially following an injury
• Very inexperienced... so why would you change the plans for your supreme winner (and a bloody good one at that) to accommodate him?
• See below
• Appreciate It wasn't seen as a two miler, but Willie has admitted he was shocked at how well he performed over that distance. He was the best 2m novice hurdler last year, Willie would be silly to not see him as a 2 miler now (granted he could also see him as a middle distance horse, or further)
• Cheveley have Ballyadam, obviously he disappointed first time but they do have a 2 miler
• Could use exactly the same argument for why you'd keep AI at 2 miles
• The evidence so far is sketchy at best, plus you have to factor in the experience AI has that FH not doesn't. I don't think you can say with any certainty that FH beats AI.

Also bonus counters...

• Only one horse has ever beaten Bob Olinger, if you want to seperate them, why not see if he can do it again?
• Willie has always said he thought FH would handle further, they're both versatile
• Horses who get bad injuries quite often get injured again. Imagine Willie sending AI up in trip, then having to change his plans again mid season to revert back because FH injured?
• Hasn't AI earned the right to at least find out if he is their best 2 mile chaser?

As I say, I'm not sold either way, but I would be utterly shocked if they didn't both start at 2 miles. And if Appreciate It doesn't get beat, then I can't see him going up in trip. For me, the only chance that Appreciate It goes to the Marsh is if Willie decides to let them go head to head this side of Christmas and Ferny beats him (or someone else I suppose, but I struggle to see who else would do it)

[Eudipe]

For me the biggest asset for both Ferny Hollow & Bob Olinger is speed. To my eye Ferny Hollow's Champion Bumper was slowly run until the top of the hill from which point both he & Third Time Lucki cut through the field with ease from the back and Ferny Hollow was strongest at the finish. His maiden hurdle win was run at a crawl until the sprint up the home straight which saw himself & Bob Olinger take 50 lengths out of the field. I suspect that Bob Olinger improved for the better ground at Cheltenham where I've never seen a horse hit the line as hard (I thought Rachael Blackmore resembled a downhill skier desperately trying to avoid the barriers in the finishing chute). Bob Olinger clearly stayed the Ballymore trip and I reckon Ferny Hollow could too but I still see speed as their trump cards. Both would be legitimate candidates for the Champion Hurdle (still hoping Ferny Hollow is) and I think the quality of their fencing will be pivotal in determining potential chasing targets.