2022 Arkle

[Quevega]

Just on Ferny Hollow, he didn't get an entry for the Morgiana, has anyone heard that he's had a set back or anything like that? I've read that he was further behind the others....

Mullins has previous for not really explaining things and then just silence.... would anyone be shocked if he wasn't seen this side of Christmas?

I'd be reluctant to back him before seeing an entry, I really would.

Nothing stopping him popping up like Cilaos Emery / Chacun Pour Soi after Christmas and throwing the hat in the ring, but by that stage, something else will be flavour of the month and we MIGHT even get a bit of value?




Alarm bells for me at this stage with Ferny Hollow. Not sure the above is accurate before anyone says, but not seen anything to the contrary? Hopefully it comes out in more detail after today.

Int that cos he's going chasing though. (no morgiana entry)

[Lbur4288]

I view Ferny's bumper win like the one Kilcruit won in Dublin.
A strong staying performance that looks better than it is cos the pace of the race at the front end was too fast overall.
Which could easily work in an arkle off a really good gallop, don't get me wrong.
It's the use of the phrase turn of foot that I'm not on board with. I think he's just capable of cruising for longer, not so much picking up.

I'd have Bob Olinger as the best/classiest most versatile of all three. I'd back him on that basis, as I think he's the more pliable/adaptable.
The other 2 are pretty similar, although Appreciate It has achieved more now obviously.

Nope that is fair enough. It'd be a very boring world if we all agreed. It's such a shame Ferny Hollow was injured last season as it would've been nice to possibly see how the novice division would have panned out with him involved too. For what it's worth, I would really like to see all three of them chasing this year.

[Kevloaf]

Just on Ferny Hollow, he didn't get an entry for the Morgiana, has anyone heard that he's had a set back or anything like that? I've read that he was further behind the others....

Mullins has previous for not really explaining things and then just silence.... would anyone be shocked if he wasn't seen this side of Christmas?

I'd be reluctant to back him before seeing an entry, I really would.

Nothing stopping him popping up like Cilaos Emery / Chacun Pour Soi after Christmas and throwing the hat in the ring, but by that stage, something else will be flavour of the month and we MIGHT even get a bit of value?




Alarm bells for me at this stage with Ferny Hollow. Not sure the above is accurate before anyone says, but not seen anything to the contrary? Hopefully it comes out in more detail after today.

Just seen Willie has literally said Ferny is in great shape, so probably best ignore the above... although personally I will be waiting for an entry before doing anything.

As it stands right now, I think he'll start at 2 miles and probably end up over further.

I think Appreciate It, remains at 2 miles until beaten, and I don't anticipate him beaten between now and Christmas....so he'll look like Arkle material for me for the next couple of months.

Int that cos he's going chasing though. (no morgiana entry)

Probs. Not unlike him to have it as an option just in case though?

[HoldenTheReins]

https://twitter.com/CPStudOfficial/status/1453338158200930307?s=20

Interest quote tweet from CPS

[Brooksie]

'I imagine he'll go novice chasing.' So basically what he's trying to say is we'll start him in some lowkey hurdle race followed by Leopardstown in December and February then on to the Champion Hurdle

[BookieBasher]

The Ferny Blue has started to trickle through on oddschecker

[HoldenTheReins]

'I imagine he'll go novice chasing.' So basically what he's trying to say is we'll start him in some lowkey hurdle race followed by Leopardstown in December and February then on to the Champion Hurdle

You never know with Mullin's

[Altior]

'I imagine he'll go novice chasing.' So basically what he's trying to say is we'll start him in some lowkey hurdle race followed by Leopardstown in December and February then on to the Champion Hurdle

Given the uncertainty over how fit and healthy he'll stay over a year, and considering the price I'd nearly rather back him for the CH rather than the Arkle as of right now.

[charlie]

In my opinion, Appreciate It stays at 2 miles until beaten at that distance.

Ferny Hollow has jumped what, 8 obstacles under rules? For me, the thought of Ferny Hollow influencing where Appreciate It goes is just not really a factor at this stage ...Appreciate It is a multiple G1 winner at 2m, the Supreme winner.... although......

The only comparable example I can think of would have been Un De Sceaux and Vautour (and was very keen on that 'splitting up' at the time) but does Ferny Hollow have the same profile as Un De Sceaux?

It's a fair point, we know far more about AI than we do FH. I really want to be bullish about AI, but cant. Is he a tool or was he the beneficiary of a terrible 2 mile hurdle division? Maybe a bit of both. On balance, I actually think Ferny's beating of AI on the flat at Cheltenham and then beating the otherwise unbeaten Bob Olinger over hurdles is stronger form that AI punishing Irascible and Ballyadam in facile grade 1's, albeit emphatically. It will probably just come down to Willie. Easy enough to campaign them both over 2m or 2m3f and see what makes it to the festival fit. I don't think they'll be ownership influence on where one goes over the other. AI owner appears in interviews to let WPM get on with it and we know CPS are quite stand offish and treat NH racing as a hobby.

[Spectre]

I would suggest a re-watch of two races is in order.

Ferny Hollow saw it out slightly better than Appreciate It in the Champion Bumper, just as he did Bob O in the novice hurdle. Neither were won by a turn of foot, they were won because he outstayed them both.

Also the point that Appreciate It isn't quick is irrelevant. The time of the Supreme was very fast. He just has a cruising speed that burns everything off. That's perfect for an Arkle.

Finally I would like to use Faugheen as evidence that what seems like a two and half mile+ horse can be extremely effective over two miles. I have Appreciate It in exactly the same mould as Faugheen, albeit it appears he will be doing it over fences rather than hurdles in future.

And just on that point, we're all talking about Willie saying Ferny goes over fences. Has he said anywhere that confirms Appreciate It goes over fences?

[ToniC]

I would suggest a re-watch of two races is in order.

Ferny Hollow saw it out slightly better than Appreciate It in the Champion Bumper, just as he did Bob O in the novice hurdle. Neither were won by a turn of foot, they were won because he outstayed them both.

Also the point that Appreciate It isn't quick is irrelevant. The time of the Supreme was very fast. He just has a cruising speed that burns everything off. That's perfect for an Arkle.

Finally I would like to use Faugheen as evidence that what seems like a two and half mile+ horse can be extremely effective over two miles. I have Appreciate It in exactly the same mould as Faugheen, albeit it appears he will be doing it over fences rather than hurdles in future.

And just on that point, we're all talking about Willie saying Ferny goes over fences. Has he said anywhere that confirms Appreciate It goes over fences?

Yes spectre confirmed it in the same article he hinted at Ferny going chasing but was much more matter-of-fact about it rather than leaving you with a sense of ‘maybe’. With James du berlais OFTS, who was likely to be his main dart at the marsh chase for me, I’d say it makes it much more likely these two are now split

[Istabraq]

The Ferny Blue has started to trickle through on oddschecker

Bastards are watching us…

[charlie]

I would suggest a re-watch of two races is in order.

Ferny Hollow saw it out slightly better than Appreciate It in the Champion Bumper, just as he did Bob O in the novice hurdle. Neither were won by a turn of foot, they were won because he outstayed them both.

Also the point that Appreciate It isn't quick is irrelevant. The time of the Supreme was very fast. He just has a cruising speed that burns everything off. That's perfect for an Arkle.

After Gowran Paul said Ferny and Bob went a steady pace and it turned into a 'dash' down the straight - how that can be called anything other than a superior turn of foot? (it also looked that way). The bumper was slower on soft than in previous years and it turned into a sprint - Ferny powered away very impressively. Connections were also seriously contemplating a Champion Hurdle campaign - limited evidence, but it all screams speed, so I disagree with neither were won by a turn of foot (appreciate the speed vs stamina debate can go round in circles - we can agree to disagree here - at stiff tracks like Cheltenham its often both).

Appreciate It is quick, he's just not the quickest when he faces a really talented one. That can't be unfair either cause thats what's happened. The time of the supreme on that ground was very good, not very fast. He clearly has a high cruising speed, but he'll be vulnerable IMO to horses that can go with him and quicken away. Its not like it hasn't happened before, and as he gets older I can see it happening again. I'd love to see him over 2m5f and then 3m, but can see why there would be no reason to step him up until he gives them a reason to.

I just want to see AI tested vs something decent. I'll happily be proven wrong and eat humble pie on this one, but I'll never back down on knocking his price because its ludicrously short.

[Spectre]

It's worth the watch Charlie even if you disagree. They are just worth watching again full stop.

Ferny started his run in the Bumper from just after 4 furlongs out and kept it up all the way through the line. That one I agree you could interpret either way.

At Gowran he just kept galloping in heavy ground when they had a war up the straight. I could agree to disagree in the Bumper, but I have no doubt he outstayed Bob. It definitely wasn't pace that won it in that ground.

[Kevloaf]

Cue Card's Bumper performance didn't help him win an Arkle.

Talk about Ferny Hollow now, using that bumper run as evidence for what might happen over a new code is clutching at straws. Not even plastic straws, it's those crap new flimsy paper ones from McDonalds.