2022 Arkle

[Istabraq]

Maybe get TTL in an ew roll up and think of getting him as a 66/1 bet as that angle could be value in a small field come the day.

Yep, Skelton has said this is a firm target and as you say this race always cuts up so he might only be facing 4 of 5 rivals on the day.
Sensible play that if you can find a nice roll up and get on...

[Madmoose]

Yep, Skelton has said this is a firm target and as you say this race always cuts up so he might only be facing 4 of 5 rivals on the day.
Sensible play that if you can find a nice roll up and get on...

I think the rollout is the,only way because 14/1 now as a single you throw the win part away as the Irish will likely prevail, place money for a roll up be like winning the race and a bonus should he win the race!

[Spectre]

Not for me, his only credible opponent spent the entire back straight trying to run on the New Course.
Annual Invictus, a 136 rated chaser, broke the 20f course record two races later, so whilst the performance of Third Time Lucki may have been visually impressive for me it was more likely conditions suiting him.
Promising yes, but even allowing for usual improvement with chasing experience he would still be some way short of 3 or 4 Irish challengers...

I think you're wrong on all counts Ista. But as is the way with all of the opinions we have, you could easily be proved right in March.

Which 3 or 4 Irish horses? I can't see them. It's possible both Appreciate It and Ferny Hollow come here, but I just don't see any way Willie will fire two prime bullets at the race when he's be confident about either winning it, and one can go and win elsewhere. As Sax has already pointed out elsewhere, he only ever fires one bullet at the race, and if he has two for it the second goes to the Marsh. If that's true let's assume it's one of the two, and if so I don't see two or three more Irish two mile novice chasers that are likely to be ahead of TTL. Also I'd add, that was a significant step forward from his hurdles form. 9lbs in terms of RPR's. On debut that's very impressive. It remains to be seen if there's further improvement, but to place in any normal Arkle he wouldn't actually need to. I can't see there being a big field either, possibly less than 8. A look at the possible candidates currently in the betting, and there are very few you'd think will be Arkle contenders.

The comparison to Annual Invictus is interesting because we know Faivoir was a decent hurdler OR144, and had beaten AI on debut over fences jumping well. But AI turned that around emphatically, albeit getting weight. But he had clearly improved much further than Faivoir on debut and that wasn't a 135 performance. It was significantly better than anything he'd done over hurdles previously which is where the chase mark is derived from, and there were no excuses for Faivoir. He ran his race and was beaten by a much better horse who is clearly improving for a fence. And even so TTL was given a RPR almost a stone higher than AI.

I also think you're off the mark pulling the form down because of what TTL beat. He doesn't have wing mirrors and can't see what's behind him. He did it from the front on the bridle eased down. Tactics they're sure to use in March, and tactics that often prevail in the Champion Chase. His jumping was electric. Any repeat of that would have most novices in trouble. Not just on Friday, but in an Arkle too. Small errors under pressure add up quickly in an Arkle, as does a horses ability to take distance form its rivals over a fence. A half a length or a length at a fence is hugely significant in this race. It may well be that something like Appreciate It has the engine to pick him up in those circumstances, but I doubt there will be two more novice chasers around that could/would. I'll also reiterate that Appreciate It will almost certainly be my main bet in the race assuming he's the one Willie targets here, as assuming he is a good jumper he has the base class to pick up TTL.

And as for the better races Third Time Lucki was beaten in last season, he was clearly being handicapped. I'd heard on the grapevine fairly early in the season that the County was the plan and didn't back him in the Supreme on that basis. He spent his season getting a mark that they thought would win it, while picking up prizemoney along the way. It went west as we all know, but the ride he was given really didn't help. Skelton went for home far too early, and he was beaten late by three lengths in the dying strides. Skelton has said he made a balls of it, and they thought they had the winner. If he had been given a straightforward hurdles campaign I have no doubt he'd have been rated in the mid-150's by the end of the season.

Look time will tell, and it may turn out I'm completely wrong to be so strong in my position, but I'd be fairly confident that with an injury free season, and a clean round of jumping, Third Time Lucki at least places in the Arkle.

[Istabraq]

Spectre

All fair comments.

Re Irish challengers, Appreciate It and Ferny Hollow the obvious two and several people in here are convinced Bob Ollinger heads here, not for me I must say but it remains a possibility at this stage (with it being October), similar Gin on Lime, and maybe Magic Daze can improve to challenge.
Are Quilixios and Zanihiyr confirmed to stay hurdling ?
The Mullins observation made by SW is sound but he has to run the likes of Haut en Coleurs, James de Berlais, Blue Lord and Saint Roi somewhere. I'm not sure he's ever entered a season with so many potential 2m novice chasers, some could obviously miss the festival but if he makes a point of targeting them all for Cheltenham he'll be having some hand in the Marsh to tackle Bob O should he head there...

[Lbur4288]

Quilixios and Zanahiyr were both mentioned to stay hurdling a while back along with them both being entered in the WKD hurdle this weekend.

[Istabraq]

Quilixios and Zanahiyr were both mentioned to stay hurdling a while back along with them both being entered in the WKD hurdle this weekend.

Thanks Lbur.
Always a tough decision with 4yo hurdlers, years ago 5yo novice chasers used to get a fair allowance in the Arkle but that was removed (15 years ago ish).

The other two that didn't spring to mind earlier are the HDB pair, Malone Road and Ballyadam, one is a perennial sicknote and the other probably not good enough but are certainly horses with talent...

[Lbur4288]

Quilixios isn't amongst the declarations any more, not heard anything else.

Zanahiyr is a horse with definite potential to do well but I can't have him down as the winner of the Champion Hurdle or the Stayers although I do think the correct decision has been made to stay over hurdles for them both at present.

[Altior]

Wasn't there talk of Quilixios going over fences? Talks he filled out well over the summer? Or perhaps I am mixing him up with another horse.

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Wasn't there talk of Quilixios going over fences? Talks he filled out well over the summer? Or perhaps I am mixing him up with another horse.

CPS said they were undecided in the summer but HDB has since suggested in his stable tour that he stays over hurdles this season.

[Muswell]

On quillixos https://www.geegeez.co.uk/cheveley-p...or-down-royal/

[charlie]

If Quilixios stays hurdling then it looks like the CPS pieces have been shuffled so Ferny is aimed here.

[Spectre]

Quilixios's (failed) entry inthe WKD Hurdle suggests they're all in down the Champion Hurdle route. De Bromhead did the same with Aspire Tower in his second season, so expect he'll have an identical campaign.

I expect to see Zanahiyr turn up in the Coral Cup or the County Hurdle to be honest. He'll have a sub-150 mark if Gordon looks after him, and he'll be hard to ignore for either race.

[Istabraq]

I expect to see Zanahiyr turn up in the Coral Cup or the County Hurdle to be honest. He'll have a sub-150 mark if Gordon looks after him, and he'll be hard to ignore for either race.

He's be a force for sure.
It's so hard for trainers of good 4yo horses, they're unlikely to good enough to win a Champion Hurdle, the allowances were removed so few go chasing, they either run around chasing place money or, as you suggest, are looked after for a late season handicap...

[Altior]

CPS said they were undecided in the summer but HDB has since suggested in his stable tour that he stays over hurdles this season.

Never mind so, must have mistook it for another horse. Am I right in saying Gordon said chasing was the end goal with him albeit he is no longer under his roof. Still only a pup like.

[Saxon Warrior]

Quilixios's (failed) entry inthe WKD Hurdle suggests they're all in down the Champion Hurdle route. De Bromhead did the same with Aspire Tower in his second season, so expect he'll have an identical campaign.

I expect to see Zanahiyr turn up in the Coral Cup or the County Hurdle to be honest. He'll have a sub-150 mark if Gordon looks after him, and he'll be hard to ignore for either race.

Quilixios will just reroute to the 4yo-only Fishery Lane Hurdle a week later, its a Grade 3.